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Atlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the United States southeast coast

Authors

Volkov,  Denis
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Zhang,  Kate
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Johns,  William
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Willis,  Joshua
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Hobbs,  Will
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Goes,  Marlos
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Zhang,  Hong
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Menemenlis,  Dimitris
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Volkov, D., Zhang, K., Johns, W., Willis, J., Hobbs, W., Goes, M., Zhang, H., Menemenlis, D. (2023): Atlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the United States southeast coast, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-1944


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5017595
Abstract
The system of oceanic flows constituting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) moves heat and other properties to the subpolar North Atlantic, controlling regional climate, weather, sea levels, and ecosystems. Climate models suggest a potential AMOC slowdown towards the end of the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcing, which would accelerate coastal sea level rise along the western boundary and dramatically increase coastal flood risk. While the slowdown has not been observed to date, we show here that the AMOC-induced intrinsic changes in gyre-scale heat content, superimposed on the global mean sea level rise, are already influencing the frequency of floods along the United States southeastern seaboard. For the South Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Mexico coasts, using observations and an ocean state estimate, we have established a strong link between coastal sea level, the associated flood frequency, and gyre-scale dynamic sea level and oceanic heat content variability, which are largely controlled by AMOC-driven ocean heat convergence. We find that ocean heat convergence, being the primary driver for interannual sea level changes in the subtropical North Atlantic, has led to an exceptional gyre-scale warming and associated dynamic sea level rise since 2010, accounting for 30-50% of flood days in 2015-2020. The results of this study highlight the importance of accounting for natural, large-scale sea level variability in order to improve coastal sea level projections and to better assess coastal flood risk.