Prediction of Adverse effects of Geomagnetic storms and Energetic Radiation 
(PAGER)

SHPRITS, YURI; Allison, Hayley J.; Wutzig, Michael; Haas, Bernhard; Bianco, Stefano; Wang, D.; Arber, Tony; Bennett, Keith; Liemohn, Mike; van der Holst, Bart; Santolík, Ondřej; Kolmasova, Ivana; Taubenschuss, Ulrich; Forest, Julien; Trouche, Arnaud

doi:10.57757/IUGG23-0954

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Prediction of Adverse effects of Geomagnetic storms and Energetic Radiation (PAGER)

Authors

/persons/resource/yshprits

SHPRITS, YURI
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;
2.7 Space Physics and Space Weather, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/haylis

Allison, Hayley J.
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;
2.7 Space Physics and Space Weather, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/wutzig

Wutzig, Michael
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;
2.7 Space Physics and Space Weather, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/bhaas

Haas, Bernhard
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;
2.7 Space Physics and Space Weather, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/bianco

Bianco, Stefano
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;
2.7 Space Physics and Space Weather, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/dedong

Wang, D.
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;
2.7 Space Physics and Space Weather, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Arber, Tony
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Bennett, Keith
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Liemohn, Mike
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

van der Holst, Bart
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Santolík, Ondřej
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Kolmasova, Ivana
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Taubenschuss, Ulrich
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Forest, Julien
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Trouche, Arnaud
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

SHPRITS, Y., Allison, H. J., Wutzig, M., Haas, B., Bianco, S., Wang, D., Arber, T., Bennett, K., Liemohn, M., van der Holst, B., Santolík, O., Kolmasova, I., Taubenschuss, U., Forest, J., Trouche, A. (2023): Prediction of Adverse effects of Geomagnetic storms and Energetic Radiation (PAGER), XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-0954

Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5016531

Abstract

The PAGER project provides space weather predictions that are initiated from observations on the Sun and predicts radiation in space and its effects on satellite infrastructure. Real-time predictions and a historical record of the dynamics of the cold plasma density and ring current allow for evaluation of surface charging, and predictions of the relativistic electron fluxes allow for the evaluation of deep dielectric charging. The project provides a 1-2 day probabilistic forecast of ring current and radiation belt environments, which will allow satellite operators to respond to predictions that present a significant threat. As a backbone of the project, we use the most advanced codes that currently exist and adapt existing codes to perform ensemble simulations and uncertainty quantifications. This project includes a number of innovative tools including data assimilation and uncertainty quantification, new models of near-Earth electromagnetic wave environment, ensemble predictions of solar wind parameters at L 1, and data-driven forecast of the geomangetic Kp index and plasma density. Our developed codes may be used in the future for realistic modelling of extreme space weather events. The PAGER consortium is made up of leading academic and industry experts in space weather research, space physics, empirical data modelling, and space environment effects on spacecraft from Europe and the US.