An approach based on the paradigm of self-organized criticality is proposed for experimental investigation and theoretical modeling of software evolution. The dynamics of modifications is studied for three free, open source programs MOZILLA, FREE-BSD, and EMACS using the data from version control systems. Scaling laws typical for self-organized criticality found. A model of software evolution presenting the natural selection principle is proposed. Results of numerical and analytical investigation of the model are presented. They are in good agreement with data collected for real-world software.

• Received 11 July 2003

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.70.067103