Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Seeing the trees for the wood: random walks or bounded fluctuations of population size?

  • Original Papers
  • Published:
Oecologia Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Summary

It is often claimed that the fluctuation of numbers in field populations is fundamentally different from random walks of densities, in that population size is kept between certain positive limits. To test this hypothesis patterns of fluctuation in field populations were compared with random walks of density of about the same duration. It was found that the boundaries (Log-Range) between which numbers fluctuate in field populations increase with time to about the same extent as in comparable random walks of density. Moreover, deviations of the trend of numbers over years (Average lnR) from zero trend in populations of 62 (carabid) species were just those expected for simulated random walk runs, with the median value of Var(lnR), and different values for mean population size that cover the possible range of “survival times” for these species. This means that the null hypothesis that in the field numbers would fluctuate as random walks of densities could not be rejected. Although it is not very probable that field populations fluctuate exactly like random walks of densities, random walk models appear to mimic the fluctuation patterns of field populations sufficiently closely to explain what happens in nature, and to deny the need for regulation. The same conclusion was drawn in earlier studies where statistical tests were applied to fluctuation patterns of field populations (Den Boer and Reddingius 1989; Den Boer 1990a). Random walks of densities do not exclude the possibility that local populations can persist for some centuries.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Andrewartha HG, Birch LC (1954) The distribution and abundance of animals. Univ of Chicago Press, Chicago London

    Google Scholar 

  • Andrewartha HG, Birch LC (1984) The ecological web. More on the distribution and abundance of animals. Univ of Chicago Press, Chicago London

    Google Scholar 

  • Baars MA (1979) Catches in pitfall traps in relation with mean densities of carabid beetles. Oecologia 41:25–46

    Google Scholar 

  • Baars MA, Van Dijk ThS (1984a) Population dynamics of two carabid beetles at a Dutch heathland. I. Subpopulation fluctuations in relation to weather and dispersal. J Anim Ecol 53:375–388

    Google Scholar 

  • Baars MA, Van Dijk ThS (1984b) Population dynamics of two carabid beetles at a Dutch heathland. II. Egg production and survival in relation to density. J Anim Ecol 53:389–400

    Google Scholar 

  • Bakker K (1971) Some general remarks on the concepts “population” and “regulation”. In: Den Boer PJ, Gradwell GR (eds) Dynamics of populations. PUDOC, Wageningen, pp 565–567

    Google Scholar 

  • Begon M, Mortimer M (1981) Population ecology. Blackwell, Oxford London

    Google Scholar 

  • Bulmer MG (1975) The statistical analysis of density dependence. Biometrics 31:901–911

    Google Scholar 

  • Den Boer PJ (1968) Spreading of risk and stabilization of animal numbers. Acta Biotheor 18:165–194

    Google Scholar 

  • Den Boer PJ (1977) Dispersal power and survival. Carabids in a cultivated countryside. Miscell Papers LH Wageningen 14:1–190

    Google Scholar 

  • Den Boer PJ (1979) The individual behaviour and population dynamics of some carabid beetles of forests. Miscell Papers LH Wageningen 18:151–166

    Google Scholar 

  • Den Boer PJ (1981) On the survival of populations in a heterogeneous and variable environment. Oecologia 50:39–53

    Google Scholar 

  • Den Boer PJ (1982) On the stability of animal populations, or how to survive in a heterogeneous and changeable world? In: Mossakowski D, Roth G (eds) Environmental adaptation and evolution. Gustav Fischer, Stuttgart New York, pp 212–232

    Google Scholar 

  • Den Boer PJ (1985) Fluctuations of density and survival of carabid populations. Oecologia 67:322–330

    Google Scholar 

  • Den Boer PJ (1986a) Population dynamics of two carabid beetles at a Dutch heathland. The significance of density-related egg production. In: Den Boer PJ, Luff ML, Mossakowski D, Weber F (eds) Carabid beetles, their adaptations and dynamics. Gustav Fischer, Stuttgart New York, pp 361–370

    Google Scholar 

  • Den Boer PJ (1986b) Density dependence and the stabilization of animal numbers. I. The winter moth. Oecologia 69:507–512

    Google Scholar 

  • Den Boer PJ (1986c) What can carabid beetles tell us about dynamics of populations? In: Den Boer PJ, Luff ML, Mossakowski D, Weber F (eds) Carabid beetles, their adaptations and dynamics. Gustav Fischer, Stuttgart New York, pp 314–330

    Google Scholar 

  • Den Boer PJ (1986d) Environmental heterogeneity and the survival of natural populations. Proc 3rd Europ Congress Entom Amsterdam, pp 345–356

  • Den Boer PJ (1987) Density dependence and the stabilization of animal numbers. 2. The pine looper. Neth J Zool 37:220–237

    Google Scholar 

  • Den Boer PJ (1988) Density dependence and the stabilization of animal numbers. 3. The winter moth reconsidered. Oecologia 75:161–168

    Google Scholar 

  • Den Boer PJ (1990a) On the stabilization of animal numbers. Problems of testing. 3. What do we conclude from significant test results? Oecologia 83:38–46

    Google Scholar 

  • Den Boer PJ (1990b) Density limits and survival of local populations in 64 carabid species with different powers of dispersal. J Evol Biol 3:19–40

    Google Scholar 

  • Den Boer PJ, Reddingius J (1989) On the stabilization of animal numbers. Problems of testing. 2. Confrontation with data from the field. Oecologia 79:143–149

    Google Scholar 

  • De Vries HH, Den Boer PJ (1990) Survival of populations of Agonum ericeti Panz. (Col., Carabidae) in relation to fragmentation of habitats. Neth J Zool 40:484–498

    Google Scholar 

  • Errington PL (1957) On population cycles and unknowns. Cold Spring Harbor Symp Quant Biol 22:287–300

    Google Scholar 

  • Gaston KJ, Lawton JH (1987) A test of statistical techniques for detecting density dependence in sequential censuses of animal populations. Oecologia 74:404–410

    Google Scholar 

  • Hancock DA (1971) The role of predators and parasites in a fishery for the molluse Cardium edule L. In: Den Boer PJ, Gradwell GR (eds) Dynamics of populations. PUDOC, Wageningen, pp 419–439

    Google Scholar 

  • Hassell MP, Latto J, May RM (1989) Seeing the wood for the trees: detecting density dependence from existing life-table studies. J Anim Ecol 58:883–892

    Google Scholar 

  • Klomp H (1966) The dynamics of a field population of the pine looper Bupalus piniarius L. (Lep., Geom.). Adv Ecol Res 3:207–305

    Google Scholar 

  • Kluyver HN (1951) The population ecology of the great tit, Parus m. major L. Ardea 38:99–135

    Google Scholar 

  • Lack D (1966) Population studies of birds. Clarendon Press, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Macan TT (1974) Twenty generations of Pyrrhosoma nymphula (Sulzer) and Enallagma cyathigerum (Charpentier) (Zygoptera: Coenagrionidae). Odontologia 3:107–119

    Google Scholar 

  • Milne A (1984) Fluctuations and natural control of animal populations, as examplified in the garden chafer Phyllopertha horticula (L.). Proc R Soc Edinburgh 82B:145–199

    Google Scholar 

  • Morris RF (ed) (1963) The dynamics of epidemic spruce budworm populations. Mem Entom Can 31

  • Nicholson AJ (1933) The balance of animal populations. J Anim Ecol 2 (S):132–178

    Google Scholar 

  • Pollard E, Lakhani KH, Rothery P (1987) The detection of density dependence from a series of animal censuses. Ecology 68:2046–2055

    Google Scholar 

  • Reddingius J (1971) Gambling for existence. A discussion of some theoretical problems in animal population ecology. Acta Biother XX (S):1–208

    Google Scholar 

  • Reddingius J, Den Boer PJ (1970) Simulation experiments illustrating stabilization of animal numbers by spreading of risk. Oecologia 5:240–284

    Google Scholar 

  • Reddingius J, Den Boer PJ (1989) On the stabilization of animal numbers. Problems of testing. 1. Power estimates and estimation errors. Oecologia 78:1–8

    Google Scholar 

  • Siegel S (1956) Nonparametric statistics for the behavioral sciences. McGraw Hill, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith HS (1935) The role of biotic factors in the determination of population densities. J Econ Entom XXVIII:873–898

    Google Scholar 

  • Uvarov BP (1931) Insects and climate. Trans Ent Soc London 79:1–247

    Google Scholar 

  • Van den Bosch J, Rabbinge R (1976) Simulation of the fluctuations of the grey larch bud moth. Simulation Monogr PUDOC, Wageningen

    Google Scholar 

  • Varley GC, Gradwell GR (1968) Population models for the winter moth. In: Southwood TRE (ed) Insect abundance. Blackwell, Oxford Edinburgh, pp 132–142

    Google Scholar 

  • Varley GC, Gradwell GR, Hassell PM (1973) Insect population ecology, an analytical approach. Blackwell, Oxford London

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Biological Station LUW, Kampsweg, 27 9418 PD, Wijster, The Netherlands

    P. J. den Boer

Authors
  1. P. J. den Boer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Additional information

Communication No. 435 of the Biological Station Wijster

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

den Boer, P.J. Seeing the trees for the wood: random walks or bounded fluctuations of population size?. Oecologia 86, 484–491 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00318314

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00318314

Key words

Search

Navigation