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Common source epidemics I: A stochastic model

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Abstract

A discrete time stochastic model is formulated for the spread of a disease which is transmitted to an uninfected but susceptible individual through an environmental source and not through contact (either direct or indirect) with infected individuals. The model incorporates both exposure and infection components. The exposure component includes consideration of the introduction of an infectious agent into the environment and the subsequent diffusion of the agent. It also includes time and location patterns for visits by individuals in the target population to the affected environment. The infection component incorporates physiological responses of exposed individuals to the infectious agent. The goal of the model is to provide a method for developing a predicted epidemic curve. Comments are given on an application of the model to the study of an outbreak of toxoplasmosis in Atlanta, Georgia, in 1977.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Mathematics, Georgia Institute of Technology, 30332, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

    Ronald Shonkwiler

  2. Department of Mathematics, Indiana University, 47405, Bloomington, Indiana, USA

    Maynard Thompson

Authors
  1. Ronald Shonkwiler
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  2. Maynard Thompson
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Additional information

This work was partially supported by BRSG Grant S07 RR0731 awarded by the Biomedical Research Support Grant Program, Division of Research Resources, National Institutes of Health.

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Shonkwiler, R., Thompson, M. Common source epidemics I: A stochastic model. Bltn Mathcal Biology 44, 259–269 (1982). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02463250

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02463250

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