Abstract
Climate change has the potential to substantially impact groundwater recharge, groundwater/surface-water dynamics, and surface-water quality. Changes in climate could be manifested as decreasing overall snowpack or an increase in the variability of snowpack year-to-year, and may affect wildfire occurrence and severity. Observed climatic extremes, including abnormal seasonal snowfall (both drought and extreme precipitation) and wildfires, have occurred in recent years in a semi-arid region of the Great Basin in the western United States. These climatic extremes have caused focused groundwater recharge following winters with elevated snowfall (2011 and 2017). Groundwater recharge calculated using the water-table fluctuation method, for periods following the elevated snowfall, was more than 10 times greater than previous studies in the basin that utilized distributed recharge calculation methods. Caution must be exercised when using results of these calculations in subsequent analyses such as groundwater flow modeling, to assure that all required assumptions are met and that calculated recharge rates are spatially applicable. Although water-quality changes due to the elevated snowfall were not evident in the surface-water data, several geochemical constituents (Ba, Ca, K, Mg, Na, pH, and specific conductance) indicated statistically significant concentration differences following a downstream wildfire in the watershed (representing the climatic extreme of drought). Both recharge calculations and statistical evaluations of water chemistry were completed using an easily modified Python script, which could be utilized by water managers to aid in water-resource planning under potentially variable future climatic conditions.
Résumé
Le changement climatique peut peotentiellement impacter de manière substantielle la recharge des eaux souterraines, la dynamique entre les eaux souterraines et les eaux de surface, et la qualité des eaux de surface. Les changements climatiques pourraient se manifester par une diminution globale du manteau neigeux ou par une augmentation de sa variabilité d’une année à l’autre, et peut affecter la gravité et l’occurrence des incendies de forêt. Les extrêmes climatiques observés, y compris les chutes de neige saisonnières anormales (sécheresse et précipitations extrêmes) et les incendies de forêt, se sont produits ces dernières années dans une région semi-aride du Grand Bassin dans l’ouest des États-Unis. Ces extrêmes climatiques ont provoqué une recharge concentrée des eaux souterraines après les hivers caractérisés par des chutes de neige importantes (2011 et 2017). La recharge des eaux souterraines calculée à l’aide de la méthode de fluctuation de la nappe phréatique, pour les périodes suivant les chutes de neige élevées, était plus de 10 fois plus importante que les études antérieures dans le bassin qui utilisaient des méthodes de calcul de la recharge distribuée. Il faut faire preuve de prudence lors de l’utilisation des résultats de ces calculs dans les analyses ultérieures telles que la modélisation des écoulements d’eaux souterraines, afin de s’assurer que toutes les hypothèses requises sont remplies et que les taux de recharge calculés sont spatialement applicables. Bien que les changements de qualité de l’eau dus aux chutes de neige élevées n’aient pas été évidents dans les données concernant les eaux de surface, plusieurs éléments géochimiques (Ba, Ca, K, Mg, Na, pH et conductivité spécifique) ont indiqué des différences de concentration statistiquement significatives après un feu de forêt en aval dans le bassin versant (représentant l’extrême climatique de la sécheresse). Les calculs de recharge et les évaluations statistiques de la chimie de l’eau ont été réalisés à l’aide d’un script Python facilement modifié, qui pourrait être utilisé par les gestionnaires de l’eau pour faciliter la planification des ressources en eau pour des conditions climatiques futures potentiellement variables.
Resumen
El cambio climático tiene el potencial de afectar sustancialmente la recarga de las aguas subterráneas, la dinámica de la relación agua subterránea/agua superficial y la calidad de las aguas superficiales. Los cambios en el clima podrían manifestarse como una disminución general de la acumulación de nieve o un aumento en la variabilidad de la acumulación de nieve de un año a otro, y podrían afectar la ocurrencia y severidad de los incendios forestales. En los últimos años, en una región semiárida de la Great Basin, en el oeste de los Estados Unidos, se han producido fenómenos climáticos extremos, como nevadas estacionales anormales (sequías y precipitaciones extremas) e incendios forestales. Estos extremos climáticos han causado una recarga focalizada de las aguas subterráneas después de los inviernos con nevadas elevadas (2011 y 2017). La recarga de aguas subterráneas calculada por el método de fluctuación de la capa freática, para los períodos posteriores a la nevada elevada, fue más de 10 veces mayor que los estudios previos en la cuenca que utilizaron métodos de cálculo de recarga distribuida. Se debe tener precaución al utilizar los resultados de estos cálculos en análisis posteriores, como la modelación del flujo de agua subterránea, para asegurar que se cumplan todas las suposiciones requeridas y que las tasas de recarga calculadas sean aplicables espacialmente. Aunque los cambios en la calidad del agua debido a una elevada nevada no fueron evidentes en los datos de aguas superficiales, varios componentes geoquímicos (Ba, Ca, K, Mg, Na, pH y conductividad específica) indicaron diferencias de concentración estadísticamente significativas después de un incendio forestal río abajo en la cuenca (que representa el extremo climático de la sequía). Tanto los cálculos de recarga como las evaluaciones estadísticas de la química del agua se completaron utilizando un Python script fácilmente modificable, que podría ser utilizado por los administradores del agua para ayudar en la planificación de los recursos hídricos en condiciones climáticas futuras potencialmente variables.
摘要
气候变化有可能对地下水补给、地下水-地表水动力学和地表水水质产生重要影响。气候变化可能表现为整个积雪减少或积雪变化逐年增加,并可能影响野火的发生和加重。近年来,在美国西部大盆地的半干旱地区观测到气候极端事件,包括异常的季节性降雪 (干旱和极端降水)和野火。这些气候极端事件导致冬季降雪量增加(2011年和2017年)后地下水补给增加。在降雪量升高之后的时期,利用地下水位波动法计算的地下水补给量是先前使用分布式补给计算方法的10倍以上。在后续分析 (如地下水流量建模)中引用这些结果时必须谨慎,以确保满足所有的假设条件并且计算的补给率在空间上可应用。虽然由于降雪量升高引起的水质变化在地表水数据中并不明显,但是流域 (有极端干旱气候)下游野火后,几种地球化学成分(Ba,Ca,K,Mg,Na,pH和特定电导率)的浓度差异存在统计学意义。水化学的补给计算和统计评价是使用易于修改的Python脚本实现的,水资源管理者可利用这些脚本制定未来潜在变化的气候条件下的水资源规划。
Resumo
As mudanças climáticas têm o potencial de impactar substancialmente a recarga das águas subterrâneas, a dinâmica das águas superficiais/subterrâneas e a qualidade das águas superficiais. Mudanças no clima podem se manifestar como um decréscimo global de mantos de gelo ou um aumento na variabilidade de mantos de gelo ano a ano e pode afetar a ocorrência e severidade de incêndios florestais. Extremos climáticos observados, incluindo nevascas sazonais anormais (tanto secas quanto precipitações extremas) e incêndios florestais, ocorreram nos últimos anos em uma região semiárida da Grande Bacia no oeste dos Estados Unidos. Esses extremos climáticos provocaram uma recarga concentrada das águas subterrâneas após invernos com elevadas nevascas (2011 e 2017). A recarga das águas subterrâneas calculada usando o método de flutuação do lençol freático, para períodos após nevascas elevadas, foi mais de 10 vezes maior do que em estudos anteriores que utilizaram métodos de cálculo da recarga distribuída na bacia. Deve-se ter cuidado ao usar os resultados desses cálculos em analises subsequentes, como modelagem do fluxo das águas subterrâneas, para assegurar que todas as premissas necessárias sejam atendidas e que as taxas de recarga calculadas sejam espacialmente aplicáveis. Embora mudanças na qualidade da água devido a nevascas elevadas não foram evidentes na água superficial, diversos constituintes geoquímicos (Ba, Ca, K, Mg, Na, pH, e condutância especifica) indicaram diferenças de concentração estatisticamente significativas após um incêndio florestal a jusante da bacia hidrográfica (representando o extremo climático da seca). Ambos os cálculos de recarga e avaliações estatísticas da química da água foram concluídos usando um script Python facilmente modificado, que poderia ser utilizado pelos gerestores hídricos para auxiliar no planejamento dos recursos hídricos sob condições climáticas futuras potencialmente variáveis.
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Acknowledgements
The author claims no real or perceived financial conflicts or conflicts of interest. The reader is referred to ESM1, which is provided with this paper for a link to the Python script for completion of analyses, and all additional statistical evaluations. The data are provided in ESM2. Helpful comments were offered on the original draft by Dr. Moutaz Al-Dabbas, Dr. Sadeq Aljawad, and two anonymous reviewers.
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Newman, C.P. Variation in groundwater recharge and surface-water quality due to climatic extremes in semi-arid mountainous watersheds. Hydrogeol J 27, 1627–1643 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-019-01967-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-019-01967-4