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  • Articles  (665)
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  • Articles  (665)
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  • 1
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    Handle with Care: Regulatory Easing in Times of COVID-19 (2021)
    De Gruyter
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: The policy response to the COVID-19 shock included regulatory easing across many jurisdictions to facilitate the flow of credit to the economy and mitigate a further amplification of the shock through tighter financial conditions. Using an intraday event study, this paper examines how stock prices – a key driver of financial conditions – reacted to regulatory easing announcements in a sample of 18 advanced economies and 8 emerging markets. It finds that regulatory easing announcements contributed to looser financial conditions but effects varied across sectors and tools. News about regulatory easing led to lower valuations for financial sector stocks, mainly in jurisdictions with relatively lower capital buffers. These results stand in stark contrast with valuations of non-financial sector stocks, which increased in response to regulatory relief announcements, particularly in industries that are more dependent on bank financing. The effects also differed across tools. Valuations declined and financial conditions tightened following announcements related to easier bank capital regulation while equity valuation rose and financial conditions loosened after those about liquidity regulation.
    Print ISSN: 2194-6116
    Electronic ISSN: 1935-1690
    Topics: Economics
    Published by De Gruyter
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  • 2
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    Collateral Constraints, Wage Rigidity, and Jobless Recoveries (2021)
    De Gruyter
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-15
    Description: The Great Recession has drawn attention to the importance of macro-financial linkages. In this paper I explore the joint role of imperfections in labor and financial markets for the cyclical adjustment of the labor market. I show that jobless recoveries emerge when, upon exiting a recession, firms are faced with deteriorating credit conditions. On the financial side, collateral requirements affect the cost of borrowing for firms. On the employment side, hiring frictions and wage rigidity increase the need for credit, making the binding collateral constraint more relevant. In a general equilibrium business cycle model with search and matching frictions, I illustrate that tightening credit conditions calibrated from data negatively affect employment adjustments during recovery periods. Wage rigidity substantially amplifies this mechanism, generating empirically plausible fluctuations in employment and output.
    Print ISSN: 2194-6116
    Electronic ISSN: 1935-1690
    Topics: Economics
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  • 3
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    The Mechanics of Individually- and Socially-Optimal Decisions during an Epidemic (2021)
    De Gruyter
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-14
    Description: I present a model where work implies social interactions and the spread of a disease is described by an SIR-type framework. Upon the outbreak of a disease reduced social contacts are decided at the cost of lower consumption. Private individuals do not internalize the effects of their decisions on the evolution of the epidemic while the planner does. Specifically, the planner internalizes that an early reduction in contacts implies fewer infectious in the future and, therefore, a lower risk of infection. This additional (relative to private individuals) benefit of reduced contacts implies that the planner’s solution feature more social distancing early in the epidemics. The planner also internalizes that some infectious eventually recover and contribute further to a lower risk of infection. These mechanisms imply that the planner obtains a flatter infection curve than that generated by private individuals’ responses.
    Print ISSN: 2194-6116
    Electronic ISSN: 1935-1690
    Topics: Economics
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  • 4
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    Home Production and Leisure during the COVID-19 Recession (2021)
    De Gruyter
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-26
    Description: Between the months of February and April of 2020, average weekly market hours in the U.S. dropped by 6.25, meanwhile 36% of workers reported switching to remote work arrangements. In this paper, we examine implications of these changes for the time allocation of different households, and on aggregate. We estimate that home production activity increased by 2.65 h a week, or 42.4% of lost market hours, due to the drop in market work and rise in remote work. The monthly value of home production increased by $39.65 billion – that is 13.55% of the concurrent $292.61 billion drop in monthly GDP. Although market hours declined the most for single, less educated individuals, the lost market hours were absorbed into home production the most by married individuals with children. Adding on the impact of school closures, our estimate of weekly home production hours increases by as much as 4.92 h. The increase in the value of monthly home production between February and April updates to $73.57 billion. We also report the estimated impact of labor markets and telecommuting on home production for each month in 2020.
    Print ISSN: 2194-6116
    Electronic ISSN: 1935-1690
    Topics: Economics
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  • 5
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    Protecting Lives and Livelihoods with Early and Tight Lockdowns (2021)
    De Gruyter
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-19
    Description: Using high-frequency proxies for economic activity over a large sample of countries, we show that the economic crisis during the first seven months of the COVID-19 pandemic was only partly due to government lockdowns. Economic activity also contracted severely because of voluntary social distancing in response to higher infections. Furthermore, we show that lockdowns substantially reduced COVID-19 cases, especially if they were introduced early in a country’s epidemic. This implies that, despite involving short-term economic costs, lockdowns may pave the way to a faster recovery by containing the spread of the virus and reducing voluntary social distancing. Finally, we document that lockdowns entail decreasing marginal economic costs but increasing marginal benefits in reducing infections. This suggests that tight short-lived lockdowns are preferable to mild prolonged measures.
    Print ISSN: 2194-6116
    Electronic ISSN: 1935-1690
    Topics: Economics
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  • 6
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    The Neoclassical Growth Model and the Labor Share Decline (2021)
    De Gruyter
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-12
    Description: The labor share may be declining in the data, but it is often assumed constant in neoclassical growth models (NGM). We assess the quantitative importance of this discrepancy by comparing alternative calibration approaches featuring constant and declining labor shares. We find little difference in model performance. Our results derive from strong general equilibrium effects: while a declining labor share mechanically lowers wage growth, the investment response pushes wages back up. Hence, different models deliver nearly identical paths of macro aggregates. Numerous robustness checks (including a CES production function, different time periods, and calculations of the labor share) reinforce the similarity of performance across model specifications. We conclude that the NGM with a constant labor share is still an appropriate choice to study many standard macro aggregates.
    Print ISSN: 2194-6116
    Electronic ISSN: 1935-1690
    Topics: Economics
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  • 7
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    Dating Structural Changes in UK Monetary Policy (2021)
    De Gruyter
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-12
    Description: The UK historical monetary policy experience is rich of institutional changes, but it remains unclear which of these many events dominated the policy actions and what timing characterised the inception of different policy regimes. We develop a new empirical approach to answer these questions and we identify in particular the historical institutional events that effectively translated into a shift of the systematic actions of the UK monetary authorities. We find that not all institutional events triggered a contemporaneous change in the actual policy conduct, although a coherent evolution in phases is evident since 1978, when a significant monetary policy rule emerges. These occasional but not sporadic regime changes explain a considerable share of the movements in the official interest rate, as well as an overstatement of the importance of policy inertia.
    Print ISSN: 2194-6116
    Electronic ISSN: 1935-1690
    Topics: Economics
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  • 8
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    International Historical Evidence on Money Growth and Inflation: The Role of High Inflation Episodes (2021)
    De Gruyter
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-09
    Description: How long is the long run in the relationship between money growth and inflation? How important are high inflation episodes for the unit slope finding in the quantity theory of money? To answer these questions, we study the relationship between excess money growth and inflation over time and across frequencies using annual data from 1870 to 2013 for 16 developed countries. Wavelet-based exploratory analysis shows the existence of a close stable relationship between excess money growth and inflation only over long time horizons, i.e. periods greater than 16–24 years, with money growth mostly leading. When we investigate the sensitivity of the unit slope finding to inflation episodes using a “time-frequency-based” panel data approach, we find that low-frequency regression coefficients estimated over variable-length subsamples are largely affected by high inflation episodes occurring in the 1910s, the 1940s, and the 1970s. Taken together, our results suggest that inflationary upsurges affect regression coefficients, but not the closeness of the long-run relationship. This reconciles the validity of the quantity theory of money with the current disinterest of monetary policymaking in money growth.
    Print ISSN: 2194-6116
    Electronic ISSN: 1935-1690
    Topics: Economics
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  • 9
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    Inequality, Growth, and Congestion Externalities (2021)
    De Gruyter
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-09
    Description: We describe and numerically simulate the aggregate and distributional properties of an endogenous growth model with an infrastructure externality which is subject to relative congestion. We show that the congested externality induces higher growth, greater inequality, labor/leisure trade-off ambiguities and an ineffective capital income tax for the government to achieve long-term redistribution goals. We demonstrate the economic implications of congestions in production and consumption externalities on the public to private capital ratio, growth and income distribution. Finally, we discuss alternative tax options for promoting inclusive growth.
    Print ISSN: 2194-6116
    Electronic ISSN: 1935-1690
    Topics: Economics
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  • 10
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    Unraveling News: Reconciling Conflicting Evidence (2021)
    De Gruyter
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    Publication Date: 2021-02-19
    Description: This paper addresses the lack of consensus in the empirical literature regarding the effects of technology diffusion news shocks. We attribute the conflicting evidence to the wide diversity in terms of variable settings, productivity series used, and identification schemes applied. We analyze the different identification schemes that have been employed in this literature. More specifically, we impose short- and medium-run restrictions to identify a news shock. The focus is on the medium-run identification maximizing at and over different horizons. We show that the identified news shock depends critically on the applied identification scheme and on the maximization horizon. We also investigate the importance of the information content of the model and of the productivity measure used. We find that models which either contain a large set of macroeconomic variables or include variables that are strongly forward looking deliver more robust results. Moreover, we show that the productivity series used may influence results, but there is convergence of findings for newer total factor productivity series vintages. Our conclusion is that news shocks have expansionary properties.
    Print ISSN: 2194-6116
    Electronic ISSN: 1935-1690
    Topics: Economics
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