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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-10-28
    Description: Complete and accurate precipitation records are important for developing reliable flood warning systems, streamflow forecasts, rainfall-runoff estimates, and numerical land surface predictions. Existing methods for flagging missing precipitation events and filling gaps in the precipitation record typically rely on precipitation from neighboring stations. In this study, we investigated an alternative method for back-calculating precipitation events using changes in rootzone soil water storage. Our hypothesis was that using a different variable (i.e., soil moisture) from the same monitoring station will be more accurate in estimating hourly precipitation than using the same variable (i.e., precipitation) from the nearest neighboring station. Precipitation events were estimated from soil moisture as the sum of hourly changes in profile soil water storage. Hourly precipitation and soil moisture observations were obtained for a mesoscale network in the central U.S. Great Plains from May 2017 to December 2020. The proposed method based on soil moisture had a minimum detectable limit of 7.6 mm (95th percentile of undetected precipitation events) due to canopy and soil interception. The method was outperformed by the nearest neighbor (NN) interpolation method when neighboring stations were at distances of 10 km. Using changes in soil water storage resulted effective in flagging and reconstructing actual missing precipitation events caused by pluviometer malfunction, highlighting new opportunities for using readily available in situ soil moisture information for operational quality control in mesoscale environmental monitoring networks.
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-10-21
    Description: A numerical experiment with a 2-km resolution was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate physical processes driving nocturnal precipitation over the Himalayas during the mature monsoon seasons between 2003 and 2010. The WRF model simulations of increases in precipitation twice a day, one in the afternoon and another around midnight, over the Himalayan slopes, and of the single nocturnal peak over the Himalayan foothills were reasonably accurate. To understand the synoptic-scale moisture transport and its local-scale convergence generating the nocturnal precipitation, composite analyses were conducted using the reanalysis dataset and model outputs. In the synoptic scale, moisture transport associated with the westward propagation of low pressure systems was found when nocturnal precipitation dominated over the Himalayan slopes. In contrast, moisture was directly provided from the synoptic-scale monsoon westerlies for nocturnal precipitation over the foothills. The model outputs suggested that precipitation occurred on the mountain ridges in the Himalayas during the afternoon, and expanded horizontally towards lower-elevation areas through the night. During the nighttime, the downslope wind was caused by radiative cooling at the surface and was intensified by evaporative cooling by hydrometeors in the near-surface layer. As a result, convergence between the downslope wind and the synoptic-scale flow promoted nocturnal precipitation over the Himalayas and to the south, as well as the moisture convergence by orography and/or synoptic-scale circulation patterns. The nocturnal precipitation over the Himalayas was not simulated well when we used the coarse topographic resolution and the smaller number of vertical layers.
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-10-11
    Description: Characteristics and predictability of drought in the Midwestern United States, spanning the Great Plains to the Ohio Valley, at local and regional scales are examined during 1916-2015. Given vast differences in hydroclimatic variability across the Midwest, drought is evaluated in four regions identified using a hierarchical clustering algorithm applied to an integrated drought index based on soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and three-month runoff from land surface models forced by observed analyses. Highlighting the regions containing the Ohio Valley (OV) and Northern Great Plains (NGP), the OV demonstrates a preference for sub-annual droughts, the timing of which can lead to prevalent dry epochs, while the NGP demonstrates a preference for annual-to-multi-annual droughts. Regional drought variations are closely related to precipitation, resulting in a higher likelihood of drought onset or demise during wet seasons: March-November in the NGP and all year in the OV, with a preference for March-May and September-November. Due to the distinct dry season in the NGP, there is a higher likelihood of longer drought persistence, as the NGP is four times more likely to experience drought lasting at least one year compared to the OV. While drought variability in all regions and seasons are related to atmospheric wave trains spanning the Pacific-North American sector, longer-lead predictability is limited to the OV in December-February because it is the only region/season related to slow-varying sea surface temperatures consistent with El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The wave trains in all other regions appear to be generated in the atmosphere, highlighting the importance of internal atmospheric variability in shaping Midwestern drought.
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Description: As raindrops fall from the cloud base to the ground, evaporation below those clouds affects the rain’s isotope ratio, reduces precipitation in arid areas, and impacts the local climate. Therefore, in arid areas with scarce water resources and fragile ecological environments, the below-cloud evaporation is an issue of great concern. Based on 406 event-based precipitation samples collected from nine stations in the Shiyang River basin (SRB) in the northwest arid area, global meteorological water line (GMWL) and local meteorological water line (LMWL) are compared, and the Stewart model is used to study the effect of spatial and temporal variation of below-cloud evaporation on isotope values in different geomorphic units at the SRB. Furthermore, factors influencing below-cloud evaporation are analyzed. The results show that 1) the change of d-excess (Δd) in precipitation at the SRB and the residual ratio of raindrop evaporation (f) vary in time and space. With regard to temporal variation, the intensity of below-cloud evaporation is described by summer 〈 autumn 〈 winter 〈 spring. Regarding spatial variation, the below-cloud evaporation in mountain areas is weaker than in oases and deserts. The intensity of below-cloud evaporation in mountain areas increases with decreasing altitude, and the below-cloud evaporation in oasis and desert areas is affected by local climatic conditions. 2) Below-cloud evaporation is also affected by local transpiration evaporation, especially around reservoirs. Reservoirs increase the relative humidity of the air nearby, weakening below-cloud evaporation. This study deepens our understanding of the water cycle process in arid areas.
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Description: Rising temperatures in the southern Arctic region are leading to shrub expansion and permafrost degradation. The objective of this study is to analyze the surface energy budget (SEB) of a subarctic shrub tundra site that is subject to these changes, on the east coast of Hudson Bay in eastern Canada. We focus on the turbulent heat fluxes, as they have been poorly quantified in this region. This study is based on data collected by a flux tower using the eddy covariance approach and focused on snow-free periods. Furthermore, we compare our results with those from six Fluxnet sites in the Arctic region and analyze the performance of two land surface models, SVS and ISBA, in simulating soil moisture and turbulent heat fluxes. We found that 23% of the net radiation was converted into latent heat flux at our site, 35% was used for sensible heat flux, and about 15% for ground heat flux. These results were surprising considering our site was by far the wettest site among those studied, and most of the net radiation at the other Arctic sites was consumed by the latent heat flux. We attribute this behavior to the high hydraulic conductivity of the soil (littoral and intertidal sediments), typical of what is found in the coastal regions of the eastern Canadian Arctic. Land surface models overestimated the surface water content of those soils but were able to accurately simulate the turbulent heat flux, particularly the sensible heat flux and, to a lesser extent, the latent heat flux.
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Description: Soil moisture (W) helps control evapotranspiration (ET), and ET variations can in turn have a distinct impact on 2-m air temperature (T2M), given that increases in evaporative cooling encourage reduced temperatures. Soil moisture is accordingly linked to T2M, and realistic soil moisture initialization has, in previous studies, been shown to improve the skill of subseasonal T2M forecasts. The relationship between soil moisture and evapotranspiration, however, is distinctly nonlinear, with ET tending to increase with soil moisture in drier conditions and to be insensitive to soil moisture variations in wetter conditions. Here, through an extensive analysis of subseasonal forecasts produced with a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system, this nonlinearity is shown to imprint itself on T2M forecast error in the conterminous United States in two unique ways: (i) the T2M forecast bias (relative to independent observations) induced by a negative precipitation bias tends to be larger for dry initializations, and (ii) on average, the unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) tends to be larger for dry initializations. Such findings can aid in the identification of forecasts of opportunity; taken a step further, they suggest a pathway for improving bias correction and uncertainty estimation in subseasonal T2M forecasts by conditioning each on initial soil moisture state.
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Description: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are tropospheric corridors that provide ~90% of poleward water vapor transport. They are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity if global warming continues unabated. Here we present a case study of the first direct observations of the impact of AR rain-on-snow (RoS) events on the marginal snowpack of the Australian Alps. Reanalysis data show ARs embedded within strong northwesterly airflow extended over 4000 km from the eastern Indian Ocean to southeast Australia, where orographic processes enhanced RoS. We quantify for the first-time radiation and turbulent energy flux exchanges using eddy covariance and the contribution of rain heat flux to the snowpack during the AR RoS events. The hydrological response of an above snow line catchment that includes Australia’s highest peak during the events was rapid, with discharge increasing by nearly two orders of magnitude above historical mean winter discharge. This reflects the isothermal properties of the marginal Australian snowpack, where small increases in energy from RoS can trigger rapid snowmelt leading to flash flooding. Discharge decreased quickly following the passage of the ARs and onset of cold air advection. Based on climate projections of ≈+2.5°C warming in the Australian Alps by midcentury combined with an already historically, close-to-ripe snowpack, we postulate that AR induced RoS events will accelerate the loss of snow cover.
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2021-09-30
    Description: Twenty-five years ago, we published a global seasonal snow classification now widely used in snow research, physical geography, and as a mission planning tool for remote sensing snow studies. Performing the classification requires global datasets of air temperature, precipitation, and land-cover. When introduced in 1995, the finest resolution global datasets of these variables were on a 0.5° × 0.5° latitude-longitude grid (approximately 50 km). Here we revisit the snow classification system and, using new datasets and methods, present a revised classification on a 10-arcsecond × 10-arcsecond latitude-longitude grid (approximately 300 m). We downscaled 0.1° × 0.1° latitude-longitude (approximately 10 km) gridded meteorological climatologies (1981-2019, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF] ReAnalysis, 5th Generation Land [ERA5-Land]) using MicroMet, a spatially distributed, high-resolution, micro-meteorological model. The resulting air temperature and precipitation datasets were combined with European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) GlobCover land-cover data (as a surrogate for wind speed) to produce the updated classification, which we have applied to all of Earth’s terrestrial areas. We describe this new, high-resolution snow classification dataset, highlight the improvements added to the classification system since its inception, and discuss the utility of the climatological snow classes at this much higher resolution. The snow class dataset (Global Seasonal-Snow Classification 2.0) and the tools used to develop the data are publicly available online at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2021-09-21
    Description: Soil moisture is an important variable of the climate system and is used to measure dry–wet change in hydro-climate. The warming trend has slowed in China over the past 20 years since 1998, and how the soil moisture changes in this period deserves our attention. With North China as a research region, this study uses the Global Land Data Assimilation System and ground observations to investigate the causes of changes in soil moisture during 1998–2017 versus 1961–1997. The results show that: (1) annual mean soil moisture experienced an almost continued decrease from to 1960s to 2010s, and no pause in the decrease of soil moisture over the regional warming slowdown of the past 20 years could be detected; (2) with the stabilization or even increase in solar radiation and wind speed as well as the continuous increase land surface air temperature, the impact of potential evapotranspiration on soil moisture gradually became prominent, and the impact of precipitation decreased, since 1998; (3) the percent contribution of annual potential evapotranspiration to soil moisture variation increased by 26% during 1998–2017 relative to that in 1961–1997, and the percent contribution of summer potential evapotranspiration even increased by 45%. Our results will provide insight into the land surface water budget and mechanism involved in drought development in North China.
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2021-09-20
    Description: The representation of the thermal and hydrological states in Land Surface Models is important for a realistic simulation of land-atmosphere coupling processes. The available evidence indicates that the simulation of subsurface thermodynamics in Earth System Models is inaccurate due to a zero-heat-flux bottom boundary condition being imposed too close to the surface. In order to assess the influence of soil model depth on the simulated terrestrial energy and subsurface thermal state, sensitivity experiments have been carried out in piControl, historical and RCP scenarios. A deeper bottom boundary condition placement has been introduced into the JSBACH land surface model by enlarging the vertical stratification from 5 to 12 layers, thereby expanding its depth from 9.83 to 1416.84 m. The model takes several hundred years to reach an equilibrium state in stand-alone piControl simulations. A depth of 100 m is necessary, and 300 m recommendable, to handle the warming trends in historical and scenario simulations. Using a deep bottom boundary, warming of the soil column is reduced by 0.5 to 1.5 K in scenario simulations over most land areas, with the largest changes occurring in northern high latitudes, consistent with polar amplification. Energy storage is 3 to 5 times larger in the deep than in the shallow model and increases progressively with additional soil layers until the model depth reaches about 200 m. While the contents of Part I focus on the sensitivity of subsurface thermodynamics to enlarging the space for energy, Part II (Steinert et al. 2021) addresses the sensitivity to changing the space for water and improving hydrological and phase-change interactions.
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