ALBERT

Description: With the rising share of renewable energy sources like wind energy in the energy mix, high-impact weather events like mid-latitude storms increasingly affect energy production, grid stability and safety and reliable forecasting becomes very relevant for e.g. transmission system operators to allow for actions to reduce imbalances. Traditionally, meteorological forecasts are provided by limited-area weather prediction models (LAMs), which can use high enough model resolution to represent the range of atmospheric scales of motions associated with such storm structures. While generally satisfactory, deterioration and insufficient deepening of large-scale storm structures are observed when they are introduced near the lateral boundaries of the LAM due to inadequate spatial and temporal interpolation. Global models with regional mesh refinement capabilities like the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) have the potential to provide an alternative, while avoiding sharp resolution jumps and lateral boundaries. In this study, MPAS' capabilities of simulating key evaluation metrics like storm intensity, storm location and storm duration are investigated based on a case study and assessed in comparison with buoy measurements, forecast products from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) LAM. Quasi-uniform and variable-resolution MPAS mesh configurations with different model physics settings are designed to analyze the impact of the mesh refinement and model physics on the model performance. MPAS shows good performance in predicting storm intensity based on the local minimum sea level pressure, while time of local minimum sea level pressure (storm duration) was generally estimated too late (too long) in comparison with the buoy measurements in part due to an early west-wards shift of the storm center in MPAS. The variable-resolution configurations showed a combination of an additional south-westwards shift and deviations in the sea level pressure field south-west of the storm center that introduced additional bias to the time of local minimum sea level pressure at some locations. The study highlights the need for a more detailed analysis of applied mesh refinements for particular applications and emphasizes the importance of methods like data assimilation techniques to prevent model drifts.

Description: Barite formation is of concern for many utilisations of the geological subsurface, ranging from oil and gas extraction to geothermal reservoirs. It also acts as a scavenger mineral for the retention of radium within nuclear waste repositories. The impact of its precipitation on flow properties has been shown to vary by many orders of magnitude, emphasising the need for robust prediction models. An experimental flow-through column setup on the laboratory scale investigating the replacement of celestite (SrSO4) with barite (BaSO4) for various input barium concentrations was taken as a basis for modelling. We provide here a comprehensive, geochemical modelling approach to simulate the experiments. Celestite dissolution kinetics, as well as subsequent barite nucleation and crystal growth were identified as the most relevant reactive processes, which were included explicitly in the coupling. A digital rock representation of the granular sample was used to derive the initial inner surface area. Medium (10 mM) and high (100 mM) barium input concentration resulted in a comparably strong initial surge of barite nuclei formation, followed by continuous grain overgrowth and finally passivation of celestite. At lower input concentrations (1 mM), nuclei formation was significantly less, resulting in fewer but larger barite crystals and a slow moving reaction front with complete mineral replacement. The modelled mole fractions of the solid phase and effluent chemistry match well with previous experimental results. The improvement compared to models using empirical relationships is that no a-priori knowledge on prevailing supersaturations in the system is needed. For subsurface applications utilising reservoirs or reactive barriers, where barite precipitation plays a role, the developed geochemical model is of great benefit as only solute concentrations are needed as input for quantified prediction of alterations.

Description: Application of the environmentally friendly scaling inhibitor NC47.1 B in geothermal systems was studied in laboratory and field-scale experiments. Biodegradation was investigated under anaerobic, in situ-like conditions and a mass balance confirmed the almost complete conversion of the polycarboxylate to e.g. acetate, formate, methane and CO2. Much higher concentrations of inhibitor were chosen than applied in situ and rapid degradation was observed in biofilm-inoculated setups: A concentration of 100 mg/L of the inhibitor was degraded below detection limit within 8 d of incubation. Furthermore, the inhibitor was applied at the geothermal plant in Unterhaching, Germany. Monitoring of the microbial community in situ showed an increase in the abundance of Bacteria. Particularly, relatives of the fermenting Caldicellulosiruptor dominated the biocenosis after about six months of continuous inhibitor dosage (5–10 mg/L). However, in long-term laboratory experiments representatives of Caldicellulosiruptor were only detected in traces and the microbial community comprised a broader spectrum of fermentative bacteria. The different composition of the biocenosis in situ and in laboratory experiments is probably caused by the different inhibitor concentrations, temperatures as well as nutrient availability in situ compared to the closed system of the batch experiments.

Description: We simulate the deformation of Somma-Vesuvius volcano due to some overpressure sources by means of a finite element 3D code. The main goal of these simulations is to investigate the influence of topography and structural heterogeneity on ground deformation. In our model the sources of deformation are embedded in an elastic linear isotropic medium and located at various depths. Geometry (shape and lateral extension) of the sources is mainly constrained by the results coming from recent seismic tomography studies. The structural heterogeneity has been modelled in terms of dynamic elastic parameters (Young's modulus) retrieved from previous seismic tomography and gravity studies. A high-resolution digital terrain model is used for the topography of the volcano subaerial edifice. Evidences from our results suggest that real topography and structural heterogeneities are key factors governing the ground deformation, which often turns being one of the most relevant problems in volcano monitoring. A large deviation from the axially symmetrical model of the displacement field is the main result of our modelling. Such an asymmetry is routinely unaccounted for when Mogi's simplistic modelling in a homogeneous medium with simplified topography is used. Our study clearly demonstrate that a better knowledge of deformation patterns can significantly help in the location of monitoring sensors as well as in the design of an efficient geodetic network.

Description: Wind power is a vital ingredient for energy system transformation in line with the Paris Agreement. Limited land availability for onshore wind parks and higher wind speeds over sea make offshore wind energy increasingly attractive. While wind variability on different timescales poses challenges for planning and system integration, little focus has been given to multi-decadal variability. Our research therefore focuses on the characteristics of wind power on timescales exceeding ten years. Based on detrended wind data from the coupled centennial reanalysis CERA-20C, we calculate European long-term offshore wind power potential and analyze its variability focusing on three locations with distinct climatic conditions: the German North Sea, the Greek Mediterranean and the Portuguese Atlantic coast. We find strong indications for two significant multi-decadal modes that are identified consistently using two independent spectral analysis methods and in the 20-year running mean time series. In winter, the long-term evolution of wind power and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are directly linked in Germany and Portugal. While German North Sea wind power is positively correlated with the NAO (r=0.82), Portuguese Atlantic coast generation is anti-correlated with the NAO (r=-0.91). We evaluate the corresponding potential for spatial balancing in Europe and report substantial benefits from European cooperation. In particular, optimized allocations off the Portuguese Atlantic coast and in the German North Sea allow to reduce multi-decadal generation variance by a factor of 3–10 compared with country-level approaches.

Description: The International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS) is currently setting up a network of smaller and thus faster radio telescopes observing at broader bandwidths for improved determination of geodetic parameters. However, this new VLBI Global Observing System (VGOS) network is not yet strongly linked to the legacy S/X network and the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) as only station WESTFORD has ITRF2014 coordinates. In this work, we calculated VGOS station coordinates based on publicly available VGOS sessions until the end of 2019 while defining the geodetic datum by fixing the Earth orientation parameters and the coordinates of the WESTFORD station in an unconstrained adjustment. This set of new coordinates allows the determination of geodetic parameters from the analysis of VGOS sessions, which would otherwise not be possible. As it is the concept of VGOS to use smaller, faster slewing antennas in order to increase the number of observations, shorter estimation intervals for the zenith wet delays and the tropospheric gradients along with different relative constraints were tested and the best performing parametrization, judged by the baseline length repeatability, was used for the estimation of the VGOS station coordinates.

Description: Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy) is one of the most hazardous volcanic complexes in the world since it is located inside the densely inhabited urban district of Naples-Pozzuoli. In the past, the caldera has produced devastating to moderate eruptions and periodically undergoes from strong to minor uplift episodes, named “bradyseism”, almost always accompanied by seismic swarms. Starting from 2005 Campi Flegrei has undergone an unrest crisis, characterized by ground uplift, localized gas emissions and seismicity, often occurring in seismic swarms. As a consequence, the monitoring activities have been progressively increasing, producing a huge amount of data, difficult to manage and match. GIS (Geographical Information System) represents a potent tool to manage great quantity of data, coming from different disciplines. In this study, we show two GIS technology applications to the seismic catalogue of Campi Flegrei. In the first one, a high-quality dataset is extracted from the GeoDatabase addressed to seismological studies that require high precision earthquake locations. In the second application, GIS are used to extract, visualize and analyse the typical seismic swarms of Campi Flegrei. Moreover, density and seismic moment distribution maps were generated for these swarms. In the last application, the GIS allow to highlight a clear variation in the temporal trend of the seismic swarms at Campi Flegrei.

Description: Since 2004 a research project has been developed to monitor subsurface deformation of Italian volcanoes using borehole strainmeters and long-baseline tiltmeters. Six Sacks-Evertson dilatometers were installed around Campi Flegrei caldera and Vesuvius during 2004–2005 (Scarpa et al., 2007), and in 2008 these instruments were supplemented by two arrays of 28–280 m long water-tube tiltmeters in underground tunnels. Relevant strainmeter and tiltmeter data have been collected and analysed from the instruments installed near Campi Flegrei caldera during the recent unrest episodes. In the period 2004–2005 strain, tilt and GPS data from Campi Flegrei indicate the onset of surface deformation that accompanied a low rate of vertical displacement that continued to 2006, corresponding to an increase of CO2 emission. This strain episode preceded caldera microseismic activity by a few months, as was observed also during a significant inflation episode in 1982. Other transient strain episodes occurred in October 2006, which were accompanied by a swarm of VT (Volcano-Tectonic) and LP (Long Period) events, in 2009, at the time of renewed gas emission activity at Solfatara, and again in March 2010, several minutes before a seismic swarm. The time scale of these transient strain events ranges from some hours to several days, putting tight constraints on the origin of ground uplifts at Campi Flegrei. Their location is compatible with a source inferred from long term deformation signals, located about 4 km beneath Pozzuoli. A proposed mechanism for these aseismic strain episodes is that they are associated with magma growth in reservoirs with occasional pressure relief associated with the leakage of gas.

Description: In this study, we investigate the oscillations of relative sea level through the analysis of tide gauge records about 10-year long collected in the Gulfs of Pozzuoli and Napoli (Southern Italy). The main goal of this study is to provide a suitable resolution model of the sea tides including low frequency (seiches), tidal bands and non-linear tides. The spectral analyses of the tide gauge records lead us to identify a number of seiche periods some of them already known from the literature and some other unknown. Furthermore, we target a non-conventional purpose of the tidal analysis, namely extracting from the tide gauge records the volcano-tectonic signal (vertical ground displacement) in the resurgent Campi Flegrei caldera. We suggest a method to filter out the volcano-tectonic signal (bradyseism) from the tide gauge records by deconvolving it from two records, one collected in the active volcanic area (Pozzuoli) and the other one collected in a tectonically stable station (Napoli), located beyond the caldera rim. Finally, we retrieve the relative mean sea level change in the Gulf of Naples and compare it with the trend found in five tide gauges spread along the Italian coast.

Description: A ground-based network of more than 1200 Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS) was analysed using GIPSY-OASIS II software package for the documentation of time and space variations of water vapor in atmosphere during the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream impact EXperiment (NAWDEX) during fall 2016. The network extends throughout the North Atlantic, from the Caribbeans to Morocco through Greenland. This paper presents the methodology used for GNSS data processing, screening, and conversion of Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) estimates to Integrated Water Vapor content (IWV) using surface parameters from reanalysis. The retrieved IWV are used to evaluate the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalyses ERAI and ERA5. ERA5 shows an overall improvement over ERAI in representing the spatial and temporal variability of IWV over the study area. The mean bias is decreased from 0.31±0.63 to 0.19±0.56 kg m−2 (mean ±1σ over all stations) and the standard deviation reduced from 2.17±0.67 to 1.64±0.53 kg m−2 combined with a slight improvement in correlation coefficient from 0.95 to 0.97. At regional scale, both reanalyses show a general wet bias at mid and northern latitudes but a dry bias in the Caribbeans. We hypothesize this results from the different nature of data being assimilated over the tropical oceans. This GNSS IWV data set is intended to be used for a better description of the high impact weather events that occurred during the NAWDEX experiment.