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  • Articles  (595)
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  • Articles  (595)
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  • 1
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    Tornado fatalities in context: 1995–2018 (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-10-27
    Description: Tornadoes account for the third highest average annual weather-related fatality rate in the United States. Here tornado fatalities are examined as rates within the context of multiple physical and social factors using tornado level information including population and housing units within killer tornado damage paths. Fatality rates are further evaluated across annual, monthly, and diurnal categories, as well as between fatality locations and across age and sex categories. The geographic distribution of fatalities are then given by season, time of day, and residential structures. Results can be used by emergency managers, meteorologists, and planners to better prepare for high-impact (i.e. fatality) events and used by researchers as quantitative evidence to further investigate the relationship between tornadoes, climate, and society.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 2
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    Business Behavior in the Face of Severe Weather: Studying the Effects of Deterministic and Probabilistic Warning Systems (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-10-08
    Description: Tornadoes are nature’s most violent storm and annually cause billions in damage along with the threat of fatalities and injuries. To improve tornado warnings, the National Weather Service is considering a change from a deterministic to a probabilistic paradigm. While studies have been conducted on how individual behavior may change with the new While studies have been conducted on how individual behavior may change with the new businesses. This project is a response to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, H.R. 353, which calls for the use of social and behavioral science to study and improve storm warning systems. The goal is to discuss business response to probabilistic tornado warnings through descriptive and regression-based statistics using a survey administered to businesses in North Texas. Prior to release, the survey was vetted by a focus group comprised of businesses in Grayson County, TX who assisted in the creation of a behavior ranking scale. The scale ranked behaviors from low to high effort. Responses allowed for determining if the business reacted to the warning in a passive or active manner. Returned surveys came from large and small businesses in North Texas and represent a wide variety of industries. Regression analysis explores which variables have the greatest influence on businesses’ behavior and show that beyond increases in probability from the probabilistic warnings, trust in the warning provides the most significant change to behavior.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 3
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    The value of weather and climate information to the Tanzanian disaster risk reduction sector using non-monetary approaches (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-08
    Description: This paper investigates the value of weather and climate information at different timescales for decision making in the Tanzanian disaster risk reduction sector using non-monetary approaches. Interviews and surveys were conducted with institutions responsible for disaster management at national, regional and district level. A range of values were identified including: 1) making informed decisions for disaster preparedness, response, recovery and restoration related activities; 2) tailoring of directives and actions based on sectoral impacts; 3) identification of hotspot areas for diseases outbreaks and surplus food production. However, while, a number of guidelines, policies, acts and regulations for disaster risk reduction exist it is not clear how well they promote the use of weather and climate information across climate sensitive sectors. Nonetheless, we find that well-structured disaster risk reduction coordination across sectors and institutions from the national to district level exists, although there is a need for further development of integrated Early Warning Systems, and a common platform to evaluate effectiveness and usefulness of weather warnings and advisories. Key challenges to address in increasing the uptake of weather warnings and advisories include language barriers, limited dissemination to rural areas, and limited awareness of forecasts. Based on the findings of this study, we recommend further quantitative evaluation of the skill of the severe weather warnings issued by the Tanzania Meteorological Authority, and an assessment of how decisions and actions are made by recipients of the warnings in the disaster risk reduction sector at different stages in the warning, response and recovery process.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 4
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    An Implicit – Not Explicit – Understanding of Hurricane Storms (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-23
    Description: The goal of this research was to examine students’ risk perception of hurricanes and hurricane-related storms to address a critical gap in the literature. Participants were asked to rate their perceptions of a tropical storm, tropical depression, and category 1 through 5 hurricanes on five dimensions and define the storms based on wind speed. Lastly, individual differences in sex and growing up on the coast were examined to determine whether they explain differences in risk perceptions. Findings showed that participants’ perceptions of category 1 through 5 hurricanes followed a linear pattern and each pair was perceived to be significantly different. However, participants rated tropical storm and tropical depression as more severe than a category 1 hurricane and were unable to define any of the storms based on wind speed. In fact, coastal natives were less accurate at defining the storms and believed the low-tier storms to be less severe than non-coastal natives. This research is the first to show that people implicitly understand the Saffir-Simpson Scale that defines category 1 through category 5 hurricanes, but not the lesser-tiered storms. The present work demonstrates a need for enhanced education of hurricanes, as students do not make important distinctions at the lower-end of the hurricane scale.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 5
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    Implications of Misleading News Reporting on Tourism at the Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-22
    Description: The tourism sector plays a major role in the economic development of a number of countries in the Global South, particularly Southern Africa. One such country is Zimbabwe, which struggles with significant economic hardships and relies heavily on the tourism sector. The Victoria Falls, a key tourism attraction of Zimbabwe on the Zambezi River was the subject of a plethora of news articles published between November 2019 and January 2020. The media suggested that the world’s largest waterfall had dried up due to climate change induced drought. These reports arose during the dry season and were thus arguably ill-founded and downplayed the natural seasonal characteristics of the Zambezi River. This paper presents content analysis of these media articles and the phenomenological qualitative data analysis of interviews conducted with tourism operators in Victoria Falls. Although some of the articles published within this period strived for accurate reporting, some articles claimed that the Victoria Falls was dry, which was inconsistent with experiences of tourism operators. This inaccurate reporting is argued by the tourism operators to have negatively affected the tourism sector and destination image of the key attraction. This paper highlights the need for accurate science-based media reporting on weather, climate, climate change and the knowledge of the local tourism stakeholders within the tourism sector.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 6
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    Engaging with stakeholders to produce actionable science: a framework and guidance (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-17
    Description: Natural and cultural resource managers are increasingly working with the scientific community to create information on how best to adapt to the current and projected impacts of climate change. Engaging with these managers is a strategy that researchers can use to ensure that scientific outputs and findings are actionable (or useful and usable). In this article, the authors adapt Davidson’s wheel of participation to characterize and describe common stakeholder engagement strategies across the spectrum of Inform, Consult, Participate, and Empower. This adapted framework provides researchers with a standardized vocabulary for describing their engagement approach, guidance on how to select an approach, methods for implementing engagement, and potential barriers to overcome. While there is often no one “best” approach to engaging with stakeholders, researchers can use the objectives of their project and the decision context in which their stakeholders operate to guide their selection. Researchers can also revisit this framework over time as their project objectives shift and their stakeholder relationships evolve.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 7
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    Learning from the COVID-19 Pandemic: When Public Health and Tornado Threats Converge (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-13
    Description: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in unprecedented challenges that dramatically affected the way of life in the United States and globally in 2020. The pandemic also made the process of protecting individuals from tornadoes more challenging, especially when their personal residence lacks suitable shelter, particularly for residents of mobile homes. The necessity of having to shelter with other families – either in a public shelter or at another residence – in order to protect themselves from a tornado threat conflicted with the advice of public health officials who recommended avoiding public places and limiting contact with the public to minimize the spread of COVID-19. There was also a perception that protecting against one threat could amplify the other threat. A survey was undertaken with the public to determine the general viewpoint to see if that was indeed the case.The results found that it was possible to attenuate both threats provided that careful planning and actions were undertaken. Understanding how emergency managers should react and plan for such dual threats is important to minimize the spread of COVID-19 while also maintaining the safety of the public. As there was no precedence for tornado protection scenarios amidst a pandemic, both short-term and long-term recommendations were suggested which may also be useful in future pandemic situations.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 8
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    Tourists’ perceptions of climate: Application of machine learning to climate and weather data from Chinese social media (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-25
    Description: Understanding tourists’ perceptions of climate is essential to improving tourist satisfaction and destination marketing. This paper constructs a sentiment analysis framework for tourists’ perceptions of climate using not only continuous climate data but also short-term weather data. Based on Sina Weibo, we found that Chinese tourists’ perceptions of climate change were at an initial stage of development. The accuracies of word segmentation between sentiment and nonsentiment words using ROST CM, BosonNLP, and GooSeeker were all high, and the three gradually decreased. The positively expressed sentences accounted for 79.80% of the entire text using ROST EA, and the sentiment score was 0.784 at the intermediate level using artificial neural networks. The results indicate that the perceived emotional map is generally consistent with the actual climate and that cognitive evaluation theory is suitable to study text on climate perception.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 9
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    Sila qanuippa? (how's the weather?): Integrating Inuit Qaujimajatuqangit and environmental forecasting products to support travel safety around Pond Inlet, Nunavut in a changing climate (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-17
    Description: As Inuit hunters living in Pond Inlet, Nunavut, we (Natasha Simonee and Jayko Alooloo) travel extensively on land, water, and sea ice. Climate change, including changing sea ice and increasingly unpredictable weather patterns, has made it riskier and harder for us to travel and hunt safely. Inuit knowledge supporting safe travel is also changing and shared less between generations. We increasingly use online weather, marine, and ice products to develop locally relevant forecasts. This helps us to make decisions according to wind, waves, precipitation, visibility, sea ice conditions, and floe edge location. We apply our forecasts and share them with fellow community members to support safe travel. In this paper, we share the approach we developed from over a decade of systematically and critically assessing forecasting products such as: Windy.com; weather and marine forecasts; tide tables; C-CORE’s floe edge monitoring service; SmartICE; ZoomEarth; and time lapse cameras. We describe the strengths and challenges we face when accessing, interpreting, and applying each product throughout different seasons. Our analysis highlights a disconnect between available products and local needs. This disconnect can be overcome by service providers adjusting services to include: more seasonal and real-time information, non-technical language, familiar units of measurement, data size proportional to internet access cost and speed, and clear relationships between weather/marine/ice information and safe travel. Our findings have potential relevance in the Circumpolar Arctic and beyond, wherever people combine Indigenous weather forecasting methods and online information for decision-making. We encourage service providers to improve product relevance and accessibility.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 10
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    Weather risk management in marine survey campaigns for the offshore investment projects in the Polish Exclusive Economic Zone (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-12
    Description: Weather is a crucial factor and the most unpredictable of all the factors determining success or failure of any offshore activity, such as investments in seabottom grid connectors (gas, energy or communication), oil & gas drilling facilities development as well as erection of offshore wind farms. Weather conditions cannot be foreseen accurately over a time horizon longer than a few days, and so arranging a realistic work schedule for such an enterprise poses a great challenge. This paper identifies and analyzes the greatest risks associated with weather conditions at sea. The importance and impact of weather on the project implementation were assessed and mitigating measures were proposed. As part of the work, a review of scientific literature was conducted, while the core conclusions were reached using the information-gathering techniques and a documentation review of the offshore projects implemented in cooperation with the Maritime Institute. The authors based their analysis on experience from survey campaigns conducted in the Baltic Sea in the areas of the investments planned for implementation. The analysis of risks associated with weather conditions is based on the statistical weather data obtained using the WAM4 model.The research reveals that it is impossible to create an accurate survey schedule for long-term offshore projects, however, using statistics for each individual hydrodynamic parameter can, to some extent, facilitate the creation of survey schedules for maritime projects.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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