ALBERT

Description: Low prediction skill in the tropical Pacific is a common problem in decadal prediction systems, especially for lead years 2–5 which, in many systems, is lower than in uninitialized experiments. On the other hand, the tropical Pacific is of almost worldwide climate relevance through its teleconnections with other tropical and extratropical regions and also of importance for global mean temperature. Understanding the causes of the reduced prediction skill is thus of major interest for decadal climate predictions. We look into the problem of reduced prediction skill by analyzing the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) decadal hindcasts for the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project and performing a sensitivity experiment in which hindcasts are initialized from a model run forced only by surface wind stress. In both systems, sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Pacific is successfully initialized, but most skill is lost at lead years 2–5. Utilizing the sensitivity experiment enables us to pin down the reason for the reduced prediction skill in MPI-ESM to errors in wind stress used for the initialization. A spurious trend in the wind stress forcing displaces the equatorial thermocline in MPI-ESM unrealistically. When the climate model is then switched into its forecast mode, the recovery process triggers artificial El Niño and La Niña events at the surface. Our results demonstrate the importance of realistic wind stress products for the initialization of decadal predictions

Description: The Atlantic Niño is the dominant mode of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. Current coupled global climate models struggle to reproduce its variability. This is thought to be partly related to an equatorial SST bias that inhibits summer cold tongue growth. Here, we address the question whether the equatorial SST bias affects the ability of a coupled global climate model to produce realistic dynamical SST variability. We assess this by decomposing SST variability into dynamical and stochastic components. To compare our model results with observations, we employ empirical linear models of dynamical SST that, based on the Bjerknes feedback, use the two predictors sea surface height and zonal surface wind. We find that observed dynamical SST variance shows a pronounced seasonal cycle. It peaks during the active phase of the Atlantic Niño and is then roughly 4–7 times larger than stochastic SST variance. This indicates that the Atlantic Niño is a dynamical phenomenon that is related to the Bjerknes feedback. In the coupled model, the SST bias suppresses the summer peak in dynamical SST variance. Bias reduction, however, improves the representation of the seasonal cold tongue and enhances dynamical SST variability by supplying a background state that allows key feedbacks of the tropical ocean–atmosphere system to operate in the model. Due to the small zonal extent of the equatorial Atlantic, the observed Bjerknes feedback acts quasi-instantaneously during the dynamically active periods of boreal summer and early boreal winter. Then, all elements of the observed Bjerknes feedback operate simultaneously. The model cannot reproduce this, although it hints at a better performance when using bias reduction.

Description: Ocean circulation models do not generally exhibit equatorial deep jets (EDJs), even though EDJs are a recognised feature of the observed ocean circulation along the equator and they are thought to be important for tracer transport along the equator and even equatorial climate. EDJs are nevertheless found in nonlinear primitive equation models with idealised box geometry. Here we analyse several such model runs. We note that the variability of the zonal velocity in the model is dominated by the gravest linear equatorial basin mode for a wide range of baroclinic vertical normal modes and that the EDJs in the model are dominated by energy contained in vertical modes between 10 and 20. The emergence of the EDJs is shown to involve the linear superposition of several such neighbouring basin modes. Furthermore, the phase of these basin modes is set at the start of the model run and, in the case of the reference experiment, the same basin modes can be found in a companion experiment in which the amplitude of the forcing has been reduced by a factor of 1000. We also argue that following the spin-up, energy must be transferred between different vertical modes. This is because the model simulations are dominated by downward phase propagation following the spin-up whereas our reconstructions imply episodes of upward and downward propagation. The transfer of energy between the vertical modes is associated with a decadal modulation of the EDJs.

Description: The 5th International Workshop on Modeling the Ocean (IWMO http://www.uib.no/en/IWMO2013/-58927/iwmo-2013-bergen-norway) was held in June 17–20, in Bergen, Norway. The historic city of Bergen is the gateway to the fjords and a center for oceanic research. The workshop was hosted by the University of Bergen and also sponsored by the Research Council of Norway. Approximately 80 researchers worldwide participated in the workshop. Professor Mellor, Princeton University, gave the keynote lecture. The 5th IWMO meeting in Bergen was the first IWMO held in Europe, followed on the footsteps of previous meetings, IWMO-2009 in Taipei, Taiwan (Oey et al. 2010a, b), IWMO-2010 in Norfolk, USA (Ezer et al. 2011), IWMO-2011 in Qingdao, China (Oey et al. 2013a), and IWMO-2012 in Yokohama, Japan (Oey et al. 2013b). The participants presented approximately 60 oral talks and 20 posters, covering a wide range of ocean modeling and data analysis topics, as described below. In the spirit of promoting young s ...

Description: An ocean circulation model is run using two different idealized equatorial basin configurations under steady wind forcing. Both model versions produce bands of vertically alternating zonal flow at depth, similar to observed Equatorial Deep Jets (EDJs) and with a time scale corresponding to that of the gravest equatorial basin mode for the dominant baroclinic vertical normal mode. Both model runs show evidence for enhanced variability in the surface signature of the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) with the same time scale. We also find the same link between the observed NECC and the EDJs in the Atlantic by comparing the signature of the EDJ in moored zonal velocity data at 23° W on the equator with the signature of the NECC in geostrophic velocities from altimeter data. We argue that the presence of a peak in variability in the NECC associated with the EDJ basin mode period is evidence that the influenceatthis time scale is upward, from the EDJ to the NECC

Description: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the subpolar gyre (SPG) are important elements in mechanisms for multidecadal variability in models in the North Atlantic Ocean. In this study, a 2000-year long global ocean model integration forced with the atmospheric patterns associated with a white noise North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is shown to have three distinct timescales of North Atlantic Ocean variability. First, an interannual timescale with variability shorter than 15 years, that can be related to Ekman dynamics. Second, a multidecadal timescale, on the 15- to 65-year range, that is mainly concentrated in the SPG region and is controlled by constructive interference between density anomalies around the gyre and the changing NAO forcing. Finally, the centennial timescales, with variability longer than 65 years, that can be attributed to the ocean being in a series of quasi-equilibrium states. The relationship between the ocean’s response and the NAO index differs for each timescale; the 15-year and shorter timescales are directly related to the NAO of the same year, 15- to 65-year timescales are dependent on the NAO index in the last 25–30 years in a sinusoidal sense while the 65-year and longer timescales relate to a sum of the last 50–80 years of the NAO index.

Description: The variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is studied using a pacemaker technique driven by ENSO in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a slab mixed layer model. In the pacemaker experiments, sea surface temperature (SST) is constrained to observations in the eastern equatorial Pacific through a q-flux that measures the contribution of ocean dynamics to SST variability, while the AGCM is coupled to the slab model. An ensemble of pacemaker experiments is analyzed using a multivariate EOF analysis to identify the two major modes of variability of the EASM. The results show that the pacemaker experiments simulate a substantial amount (around 45 %) of the variability of the first mode (the Pacific-Japan pattern) in ERA40 from 1979 to 1999. Different from previous work, the pacemaker experiments also simulate a large part (25 %) of the variability of the second mode, related to rainfall variability over northern China. Furthermore, we find that the lower (850 hPa) and the upper (200 hPa) tropospheric circulation of the first mode display the same degree of reproducibility whereas only the lower part of the second mode is reproducible. The basis for the success of the pacemaker experiments is the ability of the experiments to reproduce the observed relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the EASM.

Description: Near-inertial oscillations are ubiquitous in the ocean and are believed to play an important role in the global climate system. Studies on wind power input to near-inertial motions (WPI) have so far focused primarily on estimating the time-mean WPI, with little attention being paid to its temporal variability. In this study, a combination of atmospheric reanalysis products, a high-resolution ocean model and linear regression models are used to investigate for the first time the relationship between interannual variability of WPI in the North Atlantic and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), motivated by the idea that the NAO serves as a good indicator for storminess over the North Atlantic and that storms account for the majority of WPI. It is found that WPI at low and high latitudes of the North Atlantic is significantly correlated to the NAO, owing to its influence on the configuration of the storm track. Positive (negative) NAO conditions are associated with increased WPI in the subpolar (subtropical) ocean. Basin-wide WPI is found to be significantly enhanced under negative NAO conditions, but is not significantly different from the climatological average under positive NAO conditions. This indicates a weak inverse relationship between basin-wide WPI and the NAO, contradicting intuitive expectations. The asymmetric impact of the NAO on basin-wide WPI results from greater sensitivity of WPI to near-inertial wind forcing at lower latitudes due to the variation of the Coriolis parameter with latitude.