ALBERT

Description: Herbivores play an important role in marine communities. On coral reefs, the diversity and unique feeding behaviours found within this functional group can have a comparably diverse set of impacts in structuring the benthic community. Here, using a spatially explicit model of herbivore foraging, we explore how the spatial pattern of grazing behaviours impacts the recovery of a reef ecosystem, considering movements at two temporal scales—short term (e.g. daily foraging patterns) and longer term (e.g. monthly movements across the landscape). Model simulations suggest that more spatially constrained herbivores are more effective at conferring recovery capability by providing a favourable environment to coral recruitment and growth. Results also show that the composition of food available to the herbivore community is linked directly to the pattern of space use by herbivores. To date, most studies of variability among the impacts of herbivore species have considered the diversity of feeding modes and mouthparts. Our work provides a complementary view of spatial patterns of foraging, revealing that variation in movement behaviours alone can affect patterns of benthic change, and thus broadens our view of realized links between herbivore diversity and reef recovery.

Description: We present and describe strong-motion data observations from the 2015 M  7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake sequence collected using existing and new Quake-Catcher Network (QCN) and U.S. Geological Survey NetQuakes sensors located in the Kathmandu Valley. A comparison of QCN data with waveforms recorded by a conventional strong-motion (NetQuakes) instrument validates the QCN data. We present preliminary analysis of spectral accelerations, and peak ground acceleration and velocity for earthquakes up to M  7.3 from the QCN stations, as well as preliminary analysis of the mainshock recording from the NetQuakes station. We show that mainshock peak accelerations were lower than expected and conclude the Kathmandu Valley experienced a pervasively nonlinear response during the mainshock. Phase picks from the QCN and NetQuakes data are also used to improve aftershock locations. This study confirms the utility of QCN instruments to contribute to ground-motion investigations and aftershock response in regions where conventional instrumentation and open-access seismic data are limited. Initial pilot installations of QCN instruments in 2014 are now being expanded to create the Nepal–Shaking Hazard Assessment for Kathmandu and its Environment (N-SHAKE) network.

Description: Earthquake response and related information products are important for placing recent seismic events into context and particularly for understanding the impact earthquakes can have on the regional community and its infrastructure. These tools are even more useful if they are available quickly, ahead of detailed information from the areas affected by such earthquakes. Here we provide an overview of the response activities and related information products generated and provided by the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center in association with the 2015 M  7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake. This group monitors global earthquakes 24 hrs/day and 7 days/week to provide rapid information on the location and size of recent events and to characterize the source properties, tectonic setting, and potential fatalities and economic losses associated with significant earthquakes. We present the timeline over which these products became available, discuss what they tell us about the seismotectonics of the Gorkha earthquake and its aftershocks, and examine how their information is used today, and might be used in the future, to help mitigate the impact of such natural disasters.

Description: In this paper we analyze five years of recordings (2005–2009) from the National Seismograph Network in the North Island of New Zealand using the power spectral density probability density function (PDF) method of McNamara and Buland (2004). At each station the ambient noise is characterized and the stable noise model is then represented with the modes of the corresponding PDFs over all periods. Obtaining such an accurate long-term noise baseline for each station provides a reference model that should serve to prioritize maintenance issues for the network operators. The PDF mode low-noise model (MLNM) for the North Island is then obtained from the minimum of all the noise modes at each period. The maximum and minimum differences between the North Island MLNM and the noise mode model periods are then calculated at each station as a quick assessment tool. The daily and seasonal variations of the noise mode model are then characterized, and the horizontal and vertical mode noise models are then compared at each station. The applied technique is practical for evaluating the cultural noise condition and the earthquake detection capability, as well as the installation design against unwanted tilt and temperature variation.

Description: Modern tectonic studies often use regional moment tensors (RMTs) to interpret the seismotectonic framework of an earthquake or earthquake sequence; however, despite extensive use, little existing work addresses RMT parameter uncertainty. Here, we quantify how network geometry and faulting style affect RMT sensitivity. We examine how data-model fits change with fault plane geometry (strike and dip) for varying station configurations. We calculate the relative data fit for incrementally varying geometries about a best-fitting solution, applying our workflow to real and synthetic seismograms for both real and hypothetical station distributions and earthquakes. Initially, we conduct purely observational tests, computing RMTs from synthetic seismograms for hypothetical earthquakes and a series of well-behaved network geometries. We then incorporate real data and station distributions from the International Maule Aftershock Deployment (IMAD), which recorded aftershocks of the 2010 M W 8.8 Maule earthquake, and a set of regional stations capturing the ongoing earthquake sequence in Oklahoma and southern Kansas. We consider RMTs computed under three scenarios: (1) real seismic records selected for high data quality; (2) synthetic seismic records with noise computed for the observed source-station pairings and (3) synthetic seismic records with noise computed for all possible station-source pairings. To assess RMT sensitivity for each test, we observe the ‘fit falloff’, which portrays how relative fit changes when strike or dip varies incrementally; we then derive the ranges of acceptable strikes and dips by identifying the span of solutions with relative fits larger than 90 per cent of the best fit. For the azimuthally incomplete IMAD network, Scenario 3 best constrains fault geometry, with average ranges of 45° and 31° for strike and dip, respectively. In Oklahoma, Scenario 3 best constrains fault dip with an average range of 46°; however, strike is best constrained by Scenario 1, with a range of 26°. We draw two main conclusions from this study. (1) Station distribution impacts our ability to constrain RMTs using waveform time-series; however, in some tectonic settings, faulting style also plays a significant role and (2) increasing station density and data quantity (both the number of stations and the number of individual channels) does not necessarily improve RMT constraint. These results may be useful when organizing future seismic deployments (e.g. by concentrating stations in alignment with anticipated nodal planes), and in computing RMTs, either by guiding a more rigorous data selection process for input data or informing variable weighting among the selected data (e.g. by eliminating the transverse component when strike-slip mechanisms are expected).

Description: We produce a one-year 2017 seismic-hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one-year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model applies the same methodology and input logic tree as the 2016 forecast, but with an updated earthquake catalog. We also evaluate the 2016 seismic-hazard forecast to improve future assessments. The 2016 forecast indicated high seismic hazard (greater than 1% probability of potentially damaging ground shaking in one year) in five focus areas: Oklahoma–Kansas, the Raton basin (Colorado/New Mexico border), north Texas, north Arkansas, and the New Madrid Seismic Zone. During 2016, several damaging induced earthquakes occurred in Oklahoma within the highest hazard region of the 2016 forecast; all of the 21 moment magnitude ( M ) ≥4 and 3 M ≥5 earthquakes occurred within the highest hazard area in the 2016 forecast. Outside the Oklahoma–Kansas focus area, two earthquakes with M ≥4 occurred near Trinidad, Colorado (in the Raton basin focus area), but no earthquakes with M ≥2.7 were observed in the north Texas or north Arkansas focus areas. Several observations of damaging ground-shaking levels were also recorded in the highest hazard region of Oklahoma. The 2017 forecasted seismic rates are lower in regions of induced activity due to lower rates of earthquakes in 2016 compared with 2015, which may be related to decreased wastewater injection caused by regulatory actions or by a decrease in unconventional oil and gas production. Nevertheless, the 2017 forecasted hazard is still significantly elevated in Oklahoma compared to the hazard calculated from seismicity before 2009.

Description: The largest recorded earthquake in Kansas occurred northeast of Milan on 12 November 2014 ( M w  4.9) in a region previously devoid of significant seismic activity. Applying multistation processing to data from local stations, we are able to detail the rupture process and rupture geometry of the mainshock, identify the causative fault plane, and delineate the expansion and extent of the subsequent seismic activity. The earthquake followed rapid increases of fluid injection by multiple wastewater injection wells in the vicinity of the fault. The source parameters and behavior of the Milan earthquake and foreshock–aftershock sequence are similar to characteristics of other earthquakes induced by wastewater injection into permeable formations overlying crystalline basement. This earthquake also provides an opportunity to test the empirical relation that uses felt area to estimate moment magnitude for historical earthquakes for Kansas.

Description: In this study, we quantify the seismic and tsunami hazard in the Lesser Antilles subduction zone, focusing on the plate interface offshore of Guadeloupe. We compare potential strain accumulated via GPS-derived plate motions to strain release due to earthquakes that have occurred over the past 110 yr, and compute the resulting moment deficit. Our results suggest that enough strain is currently stored in the seismogenic zone of the Lesser Antilles subduction arc in the region of Guadeloupe to cause a large and damaging earthquake of magnitude M w ~ 8.2 ± 0.4. We model several scenario earthquakes over this magnitude range, using a variety of earthquake magnitudes and rupture areas, and utilizing the USGS ShakeMap and PAGER software packages. Strong ground shaking during the earthquake will likely cause loss of life and damage estimated to be in the range of several tens to several hundreds of fatalities and hundreds of millions to potentially billions of U.S. dollars of damage. In addition, such an event could produce a significant tsunami. Modelled tsunamis resulting from these scenario earthquakes predict meter-scale wave amplitudes even for events at the lower end of our magnitude range ( M 7.8), and heights of over 3 m in several locations with our favoured scenario ( M 8.0, partially locked interface from 15–45 km depth). In all scenarios, only short lead-times (on the order of tens of minutes) would be possible in the Caribbean before the arrival of damaging waves.

Description: We estimate stress drops for earthquakes in and near the continental United States using the method of spectral ratios. The ratio of acceleration spectra between collocated earthquakes recorded at a given station removes the effects of path and recording site and yields source parameters including corner frequency for, and the ratio of seismic moment between, the two earthquakes. We determine stress drop from these parameters for 1121 earthquakes greater than M ~3 in 60 earthquake clusters. We find that the average Brune stress drop for the few eastern United States (EUS) tectonic mainshocks studied (2.6–36 MPa) is about three times greater than that of tectonic mainshocks in the western United States (WUS, 1.0–7.9 MPa) and five times greater than mainshocks potentially induced by wastewater injection in the central United States (CUS, 0.6–5.6 MPa). EUS events tend to be deeper thrusting events, whereas WUS events tend to be shallower but have a wide range of focal mechanisms. CUS events tend to be shallow with strike-slip to normal-faulting mechanisms. With the possible exception of CUS aftershocks, we find that differences in stress drop among all events can be taken into account, within one standard deviation of significance, by differences in the shear failure stress as outlined by Mohr–Coulomb theory. The shear failure stress is a function of vertical stress (or depth), the fault style (normal, strike slip, or reverse), and coefficient of friction (estimated here to be, on average, 0.64). After accounting for faulting style and depth dependence, we find that the average Brune stress drop is about 3% of the failure stress. These results suggest that high-frequency shaking hazard (〉~1 Hz) from shallow induced events and aftershocks is reduced to some extent by lower stress drop. However, the shallow hypocenters will increase hazard within several kilometers of the source. Electronic Supplement: Earthquake catalog.