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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2016-12-01
    Description: Mittelfristige Klimaprognose (MiKlip), an 8-yr German national research project on decadal climate prediction, is organized around a global prediction system comprising the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) together with an initialization procedure and a model evaluation system. This paper summarizes the lessons learned from MiKlip so far; some are purely scientific, others concern strategies and structures of research that target future operational use. Three prediction system generations have been constructed, characterized by alternative initialization strategies; the later generations show a marked improvement in hindcast skill for surface temperature. Hindcast skill is also identified for multiyear-mean European summer surface temperatures, extratropical cyclone tracks, the quasi-biennial oscillation, and ocean carbon uptake, among others. Regionalization maintains or slightly enhances the skill in European surface temperature inherited from the global model and also displays hindcast skill for wind energy output. A new volcano code package permits rapid modification of the predictions in response to a future eruption. MiKlip has demonstrated the efficacy of subjecting a single global prediction system to a major research effort. The benefits of this strategy include the rapid cycling through the prediction system generations, the development of a sophisticated evaluation package usable by all MiKlip researchers, and regional applications of the global predictions. Open research questions include the optimal balance between model resolution and ensemble size, the appropriate method for constructing a prediction ensemble, and the decision between full-field and anomaly initialization. Operational use of the MiKlip system is targeted for the end of the current decade, with a recommended generational cycle of 2–3 years.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2016-07-01
    Description: The sensitivity of ensemble spread and forecast skill scores of decadal predictions to details of the ensemble generation is investigated by incorporating uncertainties of ocean initial conditions using ocean singular-vector-based (OSV) perturbations. Results are compared to a traditional atmospheric lagged initialization (ALI) method. Both sets of experiments are performed using the coupled MPI-ESM model initialized from the GECCO2 ocean synthesis. The OSVs are calculated from a linear inverse model based on a historical MPI-ESM run. During the first three lead years, the sea surface temperature spread from ALI hindcasts appears to be strongly underestimated, while OSV hindcasts show a more realistic spread. However, for later lead times (the second pentad of hindcasts), the spread becomes overestimated for large areas of the ocean in both ensembles. Yet, for integrated measures such as the North Atlantic SST and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the spread of OSV hindcasts is overestimated at initial time and reduces over time. The spread reliability measures are shown to be sensitive to the choice of the verification dataset. In this context, it is found that HadISST tends to underestimate the variability of SST as compared to Reynolds SST and satellite observations. In terms of forecast skill for surface air temperature, SST, and ocean heat content, OSV hindcasts show improvement over ALI hindcasts over the North Atlantic Ocean up to lead year 5.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2011-02-01
    Description: The links between the atmospheric southern annular mode (SAM), the Southern Ocean, and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at interannual to multidecadal time scales are investigated in a 500-yr control integration of the L’Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 4 (IPSL CM4) climate model. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current, as described by its transport through the Drake Passage, is well correlated with the SAM at the yearly time scale, reflecting that an intensification of the westerlies south of 45°S leads to its acceleration. Also in phase with a positive SAM, the global meridional overturning circulation is modified in the Southern Hemisphere, primarily reflecting a forced barotropic response. In the model, the AMOC and the SAM are linked at several time scales. An intensification of the AMOC lags a positive SAM by about 8 yr. This is due to a correlation between the SAM and the atmospheric circulation in the northern North Atlantic that reflects a symmetric ENSO influence on the two hemispheres, as well as an independent, delayed interhemispheric link driven by the SAM. Both effects lead to an intensification of the subpolar gyre and, by salinity advection, increased deep convection and a stronger AMOC. A slower oceanic link between the SAM and the AMOC is found at a multidecadal time scale. Salinity anomalies generated by the SAM enter the South Atlantic from the Drake Passage and, more importantly, the Indian Ocean; they propagate northward, eventually reaching the northern North Atlantic where, for a positive SAM, they decrease the vertical stratification and thus increase the AMOC.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2013-06-25
    Print ISSN: 0930-7575
    Electronic ISSN: 1432-0894
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Springer
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: A German national project coordinates research on improving a global decadal climate prediction system for future operational use. MiKlip, an eight-year German national research project on decadal climate prediction, is organized around a global prediction system comprising the climate model MPI-ESM together with an initialization procedure and a model evaluation system. This paper summarizes the lessons learned from MiKlip so far; some are purely scientific, others concern strategies and structures of research that targets future operational use. Three prediction-system generations have been constructed, characterized by alternative initialization strategies; the later generations show a marked improvement in hindcast skill for surface temperature. Hindcast skill is also identified for multi-year-mean European summer surface temperatures, extra-tropical cyclone tracks, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and ocean carbon uptake, among others. Regionalization maintains or slightly enhances the skill in European surface temperature inherited from the global model and also displays hindcast skill for wind-energy output. A new volcano code package permits rapid modification of the predictions in response to a future eruption. MiKlip has demonstrated the efficacy of subjecting a single global prediction system to a major research effort. The benefits of this strategy include the rapid cycling through the prediction-system generations, the development of a sophisticated evaluation package usable by all MiKlip researchers, and regional applications of the global predictions. Open research questions include the optimal balance between model resolution and ensemble size, the appropriate method for constructing a prediction ensemble, and the decision between full-field and anomaly initialization. Operational use of the MiKlip system is targeted for the end of the current decade, with a recommended generational cycle of two to three years.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
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