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  • 1
    Call number: AWI G5-20-94097
    Type of Medium: Dissertations
    Pages: vi, 127 Seiten , Illustrationen, Diagramme, Karten
    Language: English
    Note: Dissertation, Universität Potsdam, 2020 , Table of contents Abstract Kurzfassung Table of contents Chapter 1: Introduction 1.1 The challenge of proxy uncertainties 1.2 Aims and approaches 1.3 Thesis outline and author's contributions Chapter 2: Comparing methods for analysing time scale dependent correlations in irregularly sampled time series data 2.1 Abstract 2.2 Introduction 2.3 Methods 2.3.1 Time scale dependency 2.3.2 Irregularity 2.3.3 Surrogate data 2.3.3.1 Construction of surrogate signals 2.3.3.2 Construction of irregular sampling 2.3.4 Evaluation of the estimation methods 2.4 Results 2.4.1 Correlation of red signal - white noise time series 2.4.2 Correlation of white signal - white noise time series 2.5 Discussion 2.5.1 Effect of irregularity and non-simultaneousness in sampling 2.5.2 Choosing the best method 2.5.2.1 Handling irregularity 2.5.2.2 Accounting for time scale dependency 2.5.3 Example application to observed proxy records 2.6 Conclusion 2.7 Computer code availability 2.8 Acknowledgements 2.9 Appendix 2-A. Significance test for time scale dependent correlation estimates Chapter 3: Empirical estimate of the signal content of Holocene temperature proxy records 3.1 Abstract 3.2 Introduction 3.3 Data 3.3,1 Proxy records 3.3.2 Climate model simulations 3.4 Method 3.4.1 Approach and assumptions 3.4.2 Spatial correlation structure of model vs. reanalysis data 3.4.3 Processing steps 3.4.3.1 Estimation of the spatial correlation structure 3.4.3.2 Estimation of the SNRs 3.5 Results 3.5.1 Spatial correlation structure and correlation decay length 3.5.2 SNR estimates 3.6 Discussion 3.6.1 Spatial correlation structure of model simulations 3.6.2 Finite number of proxy records 3.6.3 Proxy-specific recording of climate variables 3.6.4 Time uncertainty and non-climatic components of the proxy signal 3.6.5 Implications and future steps forward 3.7 Conclusion 3.8 Code availability 3.9 Data availability 3.10 Acknowledgements Chapter 4: Testing the consistency of Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum spatial correlations in temperature proxy records 4.1 Abstract 4.2 Introduction 4.3 Data 4.4 Method 4.4.1 Approach and assumptions 4.4.2 Holocene and LGM spatial correlation structure from climate model simulation 4.4.3 Effect of changes in climate variability on the predicted correlations 4.4.4 Effect of changes in time uncertainty on the predicted correlations 4.4.S Estimating the surrogate-based LGM spatial correlation and accounting for parameter uncertainty 4.5 Results 4.6 Discussion 4.6.1 Proxy-specific recording and finite number of records 4.6.2 Time uncertainty of proxy records 4.6.3 Contrary behaviour of U K'37 records 4.6.4 Spatial correlation structure and orbital trends 4.7 Conclusion 4.8 Acknowledgements 4.9 Appendix 4-A. Deriving the effect of a different signal variance on the correlation Chapter 5: Synthesis 5.1 Irregular sampling and time scale dependent correlations 5.2 Spatial correlation structure of proxy records 5.3 Consistency of spatial correlations for different climate states 5.4 Signal content of proxy records 5.5 Concluding remarks and Outlook Chapter A: Supplement of Chapter 3 - Empirical estimate of the signal content of Holocene temperature proxy records A.1 Supplementary Figures A.2 Supplementary Tables Chapter B: Supplement of Chapter 4 - Testing the consistency of Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum spatial correlations of temperature proxy records 8.1 Supplementary Figures 8.2 Supplementary Tables References Danksagung Eidesstattliche Erklärung
    Location: AWI Reading room
    Branch Library: AWI Library
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  • 2
    Call number: ZSP-166-293
    In: Berichte aus dem MARUM und dem Fachbereich Geowissenschaften der Universität Bremen
    Type of Medium: Series available for loan
    Pages: 39 S. : Ill., graph. Darst., Kt.
    Series Statement: Berichte aus dem MARUM und dem Fachbereich Geowissenschaften der Universität Bremen 293
    Location: Lower compact magazine
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-07-15
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2019-03-12
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2019-09-16
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2020-09-21
    Description: To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic global change, a prevailing framework is the definition of threshold levels of pressure, above which response magnitudes and their variances increase disproportionately. However, we lack systematic quantitative evidence as to whether empirical data allow definition of such thresholds. Here, we summarize 36 meta-analyses measuring more than 4,600 global change impacts on natural communities. We find that threshold transgressions were rarely detectable, either within or across meta-analyses. Instead, ecological responses were characterized mostly by progressively increasing magnitude and variance when pressure increased. Sensitivity analyses with modelled data revealed that minor variances in the response are sufficient to preclude the detection of thresholds from data, even if they are present. The simulations reinforced our contention that global change biology needs to abandon the general expectation that system properties allow defining thresholds as a way to manage nature under global change. Rather, highly variable responses, even under weak pressures, suggest that ‘safe-operating spaces’ are unlikely to be quantifiable.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 7
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    NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
    In:  EPIC3Nature, NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP, 570, pp. 372-375, ISSN: 0028-0836
    Publication Date: 2020-03-05
    Description: The ocean—the Earth’s largest ecosystem—is increasingly affected by anthropogenic climate change1,2. Large and globally consistent shifts have been detected in species phenology, range extension and community composition in marine ecosystems3,4,5. However, despite evidence for ongoing change, it remains unknown whether marine ecosystems have entered an Anthropocene6 state beyond the natural decadal to centennial variability. This is because most observational time series lack a long-term baseline, and the few time series that extend back into the pre-industrial era have limited spatial coverage7,8. Here we use the unique potential of the sedimentary record of planktonic foraminifera—ubiquitous marine zooplankton—to provide a global pre-industrial baseline for the composition of modern species communities. We use a global compilation of 3,774 seafloor-derived planktonic foraminifera communities of pre-industrial age9 and compare these with communities from sediment-trap time series that have sampled plankton flux since ad 1978 (33 sites, 87 observation years). We find that the Anthropocene assemblages differ from their pre-industrial counterparts in proportion to the historical change in temperature. We observe community changes towards warmer or cooler compositions that are consistent with historical changes in temperature in 85% of the cases. These observations not only confirm the existing evidence for changes in marine zooplankton communities in historical times, but also demonstrate that Anthropocene communities of a globally distributed zooplankton group systematically differ from their unperturbed pre-industrial state.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2021-03-29
    Description: The origin and possible antiquity of the spectacularly diverse modern deep-sea fauna has been debated since the beginning of deep-sea research in the mid-nineteenth century. Recent hypotheses, based on biogeographic patterns and molecular clock estimates, support a latest Mesozoic or early Cenozoic date for the origin of key groups of the present deep-sea fauna (echinoids, octopods). This relatively young age is consistent with hypotheses that argue for extensive extinction during Jurassic and Cretaceous Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs) and the mid-Cenozoic cooling of deep-water masses, implying repeated re-colonization by immigration of taxa from shallow-water habitats. Here we report on a well-preserved echinoderm assemblage from deep-sea (1000–1500 m paleodepth) sediments of the NE-Atlantic of Early Cretaceous age (114 Ma). The assemblage is strikingly similar to that of extant bathyal echinoderm communities in composition, including families and genera found exclusively in modern deep-sea habitats. A number of taxa found in the assemblage have no fossil record at shelf depths postdating the assemblage, which precludes the possibility of deep-sea recolonization from shallow habitats following episodic extinction at least for those groups. Our discovery provides the first key fossil evidence that a significant part of the modern deep-sea fauna is considerably older than previously assumed. As a consequence, most major paleoceanographic events had far less impact on the diversity of deep-sea faunas than has been implied. It also suggests that deep-sea biota are more resilient to extinction events than shallow-water forms, and that the unusual deep-sea environment, indeed, provides evolutionary stability which is very rarely punctuated on macroevolutionary time scales.
    Description: Open-Access-Publikationsfonds 2012
    Keywords: deep-sea fauna ; 551
    Language: English
    Type: article , publishedVersion
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  • 9
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    Springer International Publishing
    In:  EPIC3Integrated Analysis of Interglacial Climate Dynamics (INTERDYNAMIC), (SpringerBriefs in Earth System Sciences), Heidelberg [u.a.], Springer International Publishing, 126 p., pp. 13-18, ISBN: 978-3-319-00692-5, ISSN: 2191-589X
    Publication Date: 2015-02-10
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Inbook , peerRev
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  • 10
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    WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING
    In:  EPIC3Global Ecology and Biogeography, WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, 29(6), pp. 1008-1019, ISSN: 1466-822X
    Publication Date: 2020-06-17
    Description: Aim Biodiversity dynamics comprise evolutionary and ecological changes on multiple temporal scales from millions of years to decades, but they are often interpreted within a single time frame. Planktonic foraminifera communities offer a unique opportunity for analysing the dynamics of marine biodiversity over different temporal scales. Our study aims to provide a baseline for assessments of biodiversity patterns over multiple time-scales, which is urgently needed to interpret biodiversity responses to increasing anthropogenic pressure. Location Global (26 sites). Time period Five time-scales: multi-million-year (0-7 Myr), million-year (0-0.5 Myr), multi-millennial (0-15 thousand years), millennial (0-1,100 years) and decadal (0-32 years). Major taxa studied Planktonic foraminifera. Methods We analysed community composition of planktonic foraminifera at five time-scales, combining measures of standing diversity (richness and effective number of species, ENS) with measures of temporal community turnover (presence-absence-based, dominance-based). Observed biodiversity patterns were compared with the outcome of a neutral model to separate the effects of sampling resolution (the highest in the shortest time series) from biological responses. Results Richness and ENS decreased from multi-million-year to millennial time-scales, but higher standing diversity was observed on the decadal scale. As predicted by the neutral model, turnover in species identity and dominance was strongest at the multi-million-year time-scale and decreased towards the millennial scale. However, contrary to the model predictions, modern time series show rapid decadal variation in the dominance structure of foraminifera communities, which is of comparable magnitude as over much longer time periods. Community turnover was significantly correlated with global temperature change, but not on the shortest time-scale. Main conclusions Biodiversity patterns can be to some degree predicted from the scaling effects related to different durations of time series, but changes in the dominance structure observed over the last few decades reach higher magnitude, probably forced by anthropogenic effects, than those observed over much longer durations.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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