ALBERT

Description: In the polar region of the upper mesosphere, horizontal wind oscillations have been observed with periods around 10 hours (Hernandez et al., 1992). Such waves are generated in our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) and appear to be inertio gravity waves (IGW). Like the planetary waves (PW) in the model, the IGWs are generated by instabilities that arise in the mean zonal circulation. In addition to stationary waves for m = 0, eastward and westward propagating waves for m = 1 to 4 appear above 70 km that grow in magnitude up to about 110 km, having periods between 9 and 11 hours. The m = 1 westward propagating IGWs have the largest amplitudes, which can reach at the poles 30 m/s. Like PWs, the IGWs are intermittent but reveal systematic seasonal variations, with the largest amplitudes occurring generally in winter and spring. The IGWs propagate upward with a vertical wavelength of about 20 km.

Description: In the polar region of the upper mesosphere, horizontal wind oscillations have been observed with periods around 10 hours. Waves with such a period are generated in our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), and they are identified as planetary-scale inertio gravity waves (IGW). These IGWs have periods between 9 and 11 hours and appear above 60 km in the zonal mean (m = 0), as well as in zonal wavenumbers m = 1 to 4. The waves can propagate eastward and westward and have vertical wavelengths around 25 km. The amplitudes in the wind field are typically between 10 and 20 m/s and can reach 30 m/s in the westward propagating component for m = 1 at the poles. In the temperature perturbations, the wave amplitudes above 100 km are typically 5 K and as large as 10 K for m = 0 at the poles. The IGWs are intermittent but reveal systematic seasonal variations, with the largest amplitudes occurring generally in late winter and spring. In the NSM, the IGW are generated like the planetary waves (PW). They are produced apparently by the instabilities that arise in the zonal mean circulation. Relative to the PWs, however, the IGWs propagate zonally with much larger velocities, such that they are not affected much by interactions with the background zonal winds. Since the IGWs can propagate through the mesosphere without much interaction, except for viscous dissipation, one should then expect that they reach the thermosphere with significant and measurable amplitudes.

Description: The solar cycle (SC) effect in the lower atmosphere has been linked observationally to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO), which is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves. Salby and Callaghan analyzed the QBO observations covering more than 40 years and found that it contains a relatively large SC signature at 20 km. Following up on a 2D study with our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), we discuss here a 3D study in which we simulated the QBO under the influence of the SC. For a SC period of 10 years, the amplitude of the relative variations of radiative forcing is taken to vary from 0.2% at the surface to 2% at 50 km to 20% at 100 km and above. This model produces in the lower stratosphere a relatively large modulation of the QBO, which appears to be related to the SC and is in qualitative agreement with the observations. Further studies are needed, (1) to determine whether the effect is real and the results are robust and (2) to explore the mechanism(s) that may amplify the SC effect. Quasi-decadal oscillations, generated internally by the QBO interacting with the seasonal cycles, may interfere with or aid the SC effect.

Description: A camera designed for use in flight has been developed by the NACA Lewis laboratory t o photograph cloud droplets in their natural suspension in the atmosphere. A magnification of 32 times is employed to distinguish for measurement purposes all sizes of droplets greater than 5 microns in diameter. Photographs can be taken at flight speeds up to 150 miles per hour at 5-second intervals, A field area of 0.025 square inch is photographed on 7-inch-width roll film accommodating 40 exposures on an 18-foot length. Flight tests conducted in cumulus clouds have shown that approximate droplet-size distribution studies can be obtained and that a studies of the microstructure and physics of clouds can be made with the camera.

Description: A statistical survey and a preliminary analysis are made of icing data collected from scheduled flights over the United States and Canada from November 1951 to June 1952 by airline aircraft equipped with NACA pressure-type icing-rate meters. This interim report presents information obtained from a continuing program sponsored by the NACA with the cooperation of the airlines. An analysis of over 600 icing encounters logged by three airlines operating in the United States, one operating in Canada and one operating up the coast to Alaska, is presented. The icing conditions encountered provided relative frequencies of many icing-cloud variables, such as horizontal extent, vertical thickness, temperatures, icing rate, liquid-water content, and total ice accumulation. Liquid-water contents were higher than data from earlier research flights in layer-type clouds but slightly lower than previous data from cumulus clouds. Broken-cloud conditions, indicated by intermittent icing, accounted for nearly one-half of all the icing encounters. About 90 percent of the encounters did not exceed a distance of 120 miles, and continuous icing did not exceed 50 miles for 90 percent of the unbroken conditions. Icing cloud thicknesses measured during climbs and descents were less than 4500 feet for 90 percent of the vertical cloud traverses.

Description: In preparation for the measurements from the TIMED mission and coordinated ground based observations, we discuss results for the planetary waves (PWs) that appear in our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM). The present model accounts for a tropospheric heat source in the zonal mean (m = 0), which reproduces qualitatively the observed zonal jets near the tropopause and the accompanying reversal in the latitudinal temperature variations. We discuss the PWs that are solely generated internally, i.e., without the explicit excitation sources related to tropospheric convection or topography. Our analysis shows that PWs are not produced when the zonally averaged heat source into the atmosphere is artificially suppressed, and that the PWs generally are significantly weaker when the tropospheric source is not applied. Instabilities associated with the zonal mean temperature, pressure and wind fields, which still need to be explored, are exciting PWs that have amplitudes in the mesosphere comparable to those observed. Three classes of PWs are generated in the NSM. (1) Rossby waves, (2) Rossby gravity waves propagating westward at low latitudes, and (3) Eastward propagating equatorial Kelvin waves. A survey of the PWs reveals that the largest wind amplitudes tend to occur below 80 km in the winter hemisphere, but above that altitude they occur in the summer hemisphere where the amplitudes can approach 50 meters per second. It is shown that the non-migrating tides in the mesosphere, generated by non-linear coupling between migrating tides and PWs, are significantly larger for the model with the tropospheric heat source.

Description: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregn, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

Description: Our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) extends from the ground up into the thermosphere and has a vertical grid point resolution of about 0.5 km to resolve the interactions of gravity waves (GWs) described with Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP). This model produces in the stratosphere and mesosphere the major features of QBO, SAO, tides, and planetary waves. The purpose of this paper is to discuss results from an initial study with our 3D model that shows how certain tropospheric processes can affect the dynamics of the middle atmosphere. Under the influence of tropospheric heating, and augmented by GW interactions, two distinct but related processes can be identified. (1) A meridional circulation develops in the stratosphere, with rising motions at low latitudes that are in magnitude comparable to the downward propagation of the QBO. As Dunkerton pointed out, a larger GW source is then required to reproduce the observed QBO, which tends to move us closer to the values recommended for the DSP. This has significant consequences for our model results that describe the upper mesosphere, considering the general importance of GWs for this region and in influencing planetary waves (e.g., 2-day wave) and tides in particular. (2) Tropospheric heating produces zonal jets near the tropopause that are related to latitudinal variations in pressure and reversing temperature variations (resembling the dynamical conditions near the mesopause), which in turn is conducive to generate baroclinic instability. Modeling results show that our ability to generate the QBO critically depends on the magnitude of the temperature reversal that is a measure of this instability. Planetary waves are generated in this process, which can apparently interfere with or augment the GW interactions. As originally demonstrated by Lindzen and Holton, the eastward propagating Kelvin waves and westward propagating Rossby gravity waves (generated by tropospheric convection) can in principle provide the acceleration to influence the QBO, and we were able to confirm this with our 3D model.

Description: The Transfer Function Model (TFM) is a semi-analytical, linear model that is designed especially to describe thermospheric perturbations associated with magnetic storms and substorm. activity. It is a multi-constituent model (N2, O, He H, Ar) that accounts for wind induced diffusion, which significantly affects not only the composition and mass density but also the temperature and wind fields. Because the TFM adopts a semianalytic approach in which the geometry and temporal dependencies of the driving sources are removed through the use of height-integrated Green's functions, it provides physical insight into the essential properties of processes being considered, which are uncluttered by the accidental complexities that arise from particular source geometrie and time dependences. Extending from the ground to 700 km, the TFM eliminates spurious effects due to arbitrarily chosen boundary conditions. A database of transfer functions, computed only once, can be used to synthesize a wide range of spatial and temporal sources dependencies. The response synthesis can be performed quickly in real-time using only limited computing capabilities. These features make the TFM unique among global dynamical models. Given these desirable properties, a version of the TFM has been developed for personal computers (PC) using advanced platform-independent 3D visualization capabilities. We demonstrate the model capabilities with simulations for different auroral sources, including the response of ducted gravity waves modes that propagate around the globe. The thermospheric response is found to depend strongly on the spatial and temporal frequency spectra of the storm. Such varied behavior is difficult to describe in statistical empirical models. To improve the capability of space weather prediction, the TFM thus could be grafted naturally onto existing statistical models using data assimilation.

Description: For comparison with measurements from the TIMED satellite and coordinated ground based observations, we discuss results from our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) that incorporates the Doppler Spread Parameterization (Hines, 1997) for small-scale gravity waves (GWs). The NSM extends from the ground into the thermosphere and describes the major dynamical features of the atmosphere including the wave driven equatorial oscillations (QBO and SAO), and the seasonal variations of tides and planetary waves. With emphasis on the non-migrating tides, having periods of 24 and 12 hours, we discuss our modeling results that account for the classical migrating solar excitation sources only. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed seasonal variations and in particular the large equinoctial maxima in the amplitude of the migrating diurnal tide at altitudes around 90 km. Filtering of the tide by the zonal circulation and GW momentum deposition was identified as the cause. The GWs were also shown to produce a strong non-linear interaction between the diurnal and semi-diurnal tides. Confined largely to the mesosphere, the NSM produces through dynamical interactions a relatively large contribution of non-migrating tides. A striking feature is seen in the diurnal and semi-diurnal oscillations of the zonal mean (m = 0). Eastward propagating tides are also generated for zonal wave numbers m = 1 to 4. When the NSM is run without GWs, the amplitudes for the non-migrating tides, including m = 0, are generally small. Planetary wave interaction and non-linear coupling that involves the filtering of GWs and related height integration of dynamical features are discussed as possible mechanisms for generating these non-migrating tides in the NSM. As is the case for the solar migrating tides, the non-migrating tides reveal persistent seasonal variations. Under the influence of the QBO and SAO, interannual variations are produced.