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  • 1
    Series available for loan
    Series available for loan
    Boulder, Colo. : National Center for Atmospheric Research [u.a.]
    Associated volumes
    Call number: AWI A5-04-0045
    In: NCAR technical notes
    Type of Medium: Series available for loan
    Pages: 82 S.
    Series Statement: NCAR technical notes 299 : STR
    Note: Table of Contents: Preface. - Acknowledgments. - 1. Introduction. - 2. The evolution of GDAS. - 3. The NMC data set. - 4. Internal consistency. - 5. Problems with individual analyses. - 6. 15 day averages. - 7. Discussion and conclusions. - References. - Appendix I Acronyms. - Appendix II Summary of NMC operational changes. - Appendix III Impact of NMC operational changes. - Appendix IV Missing data. - Appendix V Bad/suspicious NMC data. - Appendix VI Trends/changes in NMC data.
    Location: AWI Reading room
    Branch Library: AWI Library
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  • 2
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Cambridge [u.a.] : Cambridge University Press
    Call number: AWI A13-92-0466 ; PIK N 456-93-0113
    Description / Table of Contents: Contents: Preface. - Acknowledgements. - The authors. - Acronyms. - Notation. - Physical constants. - PART 1: INTRODUCTION. - 1 Introduction to climate modeling. - 2 Human components of the climate system. - PART 2: THE SCIENCE: SUBSYSTEMS AND PROCESSES. - 3 The atmosphere. - 4 The ocean circulation. - 5 Land surface. - 6 Terrestrial ecosystems. - 7 Atmospheric chemistry. - 8 Marine biogeochemistry. - PART 3: MODELING AND PARAMETERIZATION. - 9 Climate system simulation: basic numerical & computational concepts. - 10 Atmospheric general circulation modeling. - 11 Ocean general circulation modeling. - 12 Sea ice models. - 13 Land ice and climate. - 14 Biophysical models of land surface processes. - 15 Chemistry-transport models. - 16 Biogeochemical ocean models. - PART 4: COUPLINGS AND INTERACTIONS. - 17 Global coupled models: atmosphere, ocean, sea ice. - 18 Tropical pacific ENSO models: ENSO as a mode of the coupled system. - PART 5: SENSITIVITY EXPERIMENTS AND APPLICATIONS. - 19 Climate variability simulated in GCMs. - 20 Climate-model responses to increased CO2 and other greenhouse gases. - 21 Modeling large climatic changes of the past. - 22 Changes in land use. - PART 6: FUTURE PROSPECTS. - 26 Climate system modeling prospects. - References. - Index
    Description / Table of Contents: It is now widely recognized that human activities are transforming the global environment. What will be the changes in climate caused by anthropogenic influences and how do these compare with natural variations? To address these questions there is an urgent need to understand and model the global climate system effectively. A central role of climate system models will be to help determine possible impacts and help guide possible future policies. Climate System Modeling provides a thorough grounding in climate dynamics and the issues involved but also the mathematical, physical, chemical and biological basis for the component models and the sources of uncertainty, the assumptions made and approximations introduced. Climate system models go beyond climate models to include all aspects of the climate system: the atmosphere, the ocean, the cryosphere (including snow, sea ice, and glaciers), the biosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, other land surface processes and additional parts of the hydrosphere including ricers, and all the complex interactions between these components. The biogeochemical cycles in both the atmosphere and the ocean are dealt with in detail, potentially allowing the carbon cycle, for instance, to be treated with some veracity. Instead of projecting and specifying what future atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane might be, the goal of these models is to deal comprehensively with the carbon cycle and predict the future evolution of greenhouse gas concentrations, as well as the impact of those changes on the physical climate. Climate System Modeling is a comprehensive text which will appeal to students and researchers concerned with any aspect of climate and the study of related topics in the earth and environmental sciences.
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: XXIX, 788 S. : graph. Darst.
    ISBN: 0521432316
    Branch Library: AWI Library
    Branch Library: PIK Library
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climatic change 31 (1995), S. 163-180 
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climatic change 31 (1995), S. 427-453 
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The role of the atmospheric circulation in climate change is examined. A review is given of the information available in the past record on the atmosheric circulation and its role in climate change, firstly at the surface via sea level pressure in both the northern and southern hemispheres and secondly for the free atmosphere. As with most climate information, the climate record is compromised by non-physical inhomogeneities arising from changes in observing and analyzing techniques and changes in data coverage. Problems with and threats to the rawinsonde network are discussed. Global analyses produced by the operational centers, U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), for weather forecasting purposes contain many discontinuous changes in the analyses arising from improvements in the system used to produce them. A discussion is given of the prospects for and motivation behind an activity known as ‘reanalysis’ in which the historical data are reanalyzed using a state-of-the-art system that is held constant for the entire record. The only sources of spurious change then are the changes in the observing system, such as the introduction of space-based observations. Recommendations are made on needed actions for better understanding and monitoring climate change. The role of the atmospheric circulation and the strong links to other variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind are established and illustrated with a survey of decadal variability, the evidence for it, and the way in which the observed atmospheric circulation is involved in the Pacific and Atlantic sectors. The importance of teleconnections is stressed, especially in the winter half year, for understanding local climate change. The likelihood that changes will be manifested in the frequency and intensity of preferred modes of behavior in the atmosphere, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific-North American teleconnection patterns, rather than in changes in the modes is also emphasized. The recently observed climate changes and the tendency for an unprecedented prolonged El Niño are interpreted in this framework. The key coupled atmosphere-ocean character of decadal variability is noted with the atmosphere providing the spatial scales, the ocean the memory, but also with the need for collaborative, as opposed to destructive, interactions through the atmospheric circulation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract A physically based conceptual framework is put forward that explains why an increase in heavy precipitation events should be a primary manifestation of the climate change that accompanies increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase downwelling infrared radiation, and this global heating at the surface not only acts to increase temperatures but also increases evaporation which enhances the atmospheric moisture content. Consequently all weather systems, ranging from individual clouds and thunderstorms to extratropical cyclones, which feed on the available moisture through storm-scale moisture convergence, are likely to produce correspondingly enhanced precipitation rates. Increases in heavy rainfall at the expense of more moderate rainfall are the consequence along with increased runoff and risk of flooding. However, because of constraints in the surface energy budget, there are also implications for the frequency and/or efficiency of precipitation. It follows that increased attention should be given to trends in atmospheric moisture content, and datasets on hourly precipitation rates and frequency need to be developed and analyzed as well as total accumulation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 6
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract New estimates of the moistening of the atmosphere through evaporation at the surface and of the drying through precipitation are computed. Overall, the e-folding residence time of atmospheric moisture is just over 8 days. New estimates are also made of how much moisture that precipitates out comes from horizontal transport versus local evaporation, referred to as ‘recycling’. The results depend greatly on the scale of the domain under consideration and global maps of the recycling for annual means are produced for 500 km scales for which global recycling is 9.6%, consisting of 8.9% over land and 9.9% over the oceans. Even for 1000 km scales, less than 20% of the annual precipitation typically comes from evaporation within the domain. While average overall atmospheric moisture depletion and restoration must balance, precipitation falls only a small fraction of the time. Thus precipitation rates are also examined. Over the United States, one hour intervals with 0.1 mm or more are used to show that the frequency of precipitation ranges from over 30% in the Northwest, to about 20% in the Southeast and less than 4% just east of the continental divide in winter, and from less than 2% in California to over 20% in the Southeast in summer. In midlatitudes precipitation typically falls about 10% of the time, and so rainfall rates, conditional on when rain is falling, are much larger than evaporation rates. The mismatches in the rates of rainfall versus evaporation imply that precipitating systems of all kinds feed mostly on the moisture already in the atmosphere. Over North America, much of the precipitation originates from moisture advected from the Gulf of Mexico and subtropical Atlantic or Pacific a day or so earlier. Increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere produce global warming through an increase in downwelling infrared radiation, and thus not only increase surface temperatures but also enhance the hydrological cycle, as much of the heating at the surface goes into evaporating surface moisture. Global temperature increases signify that the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases and, together with enhanced evaporation, this means that the actual atmospheric moisture should increase. It follows that naturally-occurring droughts are likely to be exacerbated by enhanced potential evapotranspiration. Further, globally there must be an increase in precipitation to balance the enhanced evaporation but the processes by which precipitation is altered locally are not well understood. Observations confirm that atmospheric moisture is increasing in many places, for example at a rate of about 5% per decade over the United States. Based on the above results, we argue that increased moisture content of the atmosphere therefore favors stronger rainfall or snowfall events, thus increasing risk of flooding, which is a pattern observed to be happening in many parts of the world. Moreover, because there is a disparity between the rates of increase of atmospheric moisture and precipitation, there are implied changes in the frequency of precipitation and/or efficiency of precipitation (related to how much moisture is left behind in a storm). However, an analysis of linear trends in the frequency of precipitation events for the United States corresponding to thresholds of 0.1 and 1 mm/h shows that the most notable statistically significant trends are for increases in the southern United States in winter and decreases in the Pacific Northwest from November through January, which may be related to changes in atmospheric circulation and storm tracks associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation trends. It is suggested that as the physical constraints on precipitation apply only globally, more attention should be paid to rates in both observations and models as well as the frequency of occurrence.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 7
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The Working Group on Storms considered tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones, thunderstorms and their associated winds and effects other than on temperatures and precipitation (which are dealt with by the other working groups) to be in their purview. Changes in observing systems and distribution of observers and people impacted by these phenomena confound trend analysis. In light of the difficulty of assembling homogeneous time series of small-scale phenomena such as thunderstorms, tornadoes and hail, and also the problems in wind measurements, the working group recommends that indices of wind be developed by taking advantage of long surface (or sea-level) pressure measurements and analyses. Because wind is a vector, two pairs of readings that are orthogonal are desirable. Instantaneous values over about 1000 km scales are desirable to generate statistics relevant to wind extremes. Recommendations are given on how the data might profitably be processed. Several other recommendations are made concerning data acquisition and processing, some of which apply to reanalysis of past data and some apply to future processing of data. Various "extremes indices" are also suggested.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 10 (1994), S. 107-134 
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The heat budget has been computed locally over the entire globe for each month of 1988 using compatible top-of-the-atmosphere radiation from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment combined with European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric data. The effective heat sources and sinks (diabatic heating) and effective moisture sources and sinks for the atmosphere are computed and combined to produce overall estimates of the atmospheric energy divergence and the net flux through the Earth's surface. On an annual mean basis, this is directly related to the divergence of the ocean heat transport, and new computations of the ocean heat transport are made for the ocean basins. Results are presented for January and July, and the annual mean for 1988, along with a comprehensive discussion of errors. While the current results are believed to be the best available at present, there are substantial shortcomings remaining in the estimates of the atmospheric heat and moisture budgets. The issues, which are also present in all previous studies, arise from the diurnal cycle, problems with atmospheric divergence, vertical resolution, spurious mass imbalances, initialized versus uninitialized atmospheric analyses, and postprocessing to produce the atmospheric archive on pressure surfaces. Over land, additional problems arise from the complex surface topography, so that computed surface fluxes are more reliable over the oceans. The use of zonal means to compute ocean transports is shown to produce misleading results because a considerable part of the implied ocean transports is through the land. The need to compute the heat budget locally is demonstrated and results indicate lower ocean transports than in previous residual calculations which are therefore more compatible with direct ocean estimates. A Poisson equation is solved with appropriate boundary conditions of zero normal heat flux through the continental boundaries to obtain the ocean heat transport. Because of the poor observational data base, adjustments to the surface fluxes are necessary over the southern oceans. Error bars are estimated based on the large-scale spurious residuals over land of 30 W m−2 over 1000 km scales (1012 m2). In the Atlantic Ocean, a northward transport emerges at all latitudes with peak values of 1.1±0.2 PW (1 standard error) at 20 to 30°N. Comparable values are achieved in the Pacific at 20°N, so that the total is 2.1±0.3 PW. The peak southward transport is at 15 to 20°S of 1.9±0.3 PW made up of strong components from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans and with a heat flux from the Pacific into the Indian Ocean in the Indonesian throughflow. The pattern of poleward heat fluxes is suggestive of a strong role for Ekman transports in the tropical regions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 9 (1994), S. 303-319 
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract. Considerable evidence has emerged of a substantial decade-long change in the north Pacific atmosphere and ocean lasting from about 1976 to 1988. Observed significant changes in the atmospheric circulation throughout the troposphere revealed a deeper and eastward shifted Aleutian low pressure system in the winter half year which advected warmer and moister air along the west coast of North America and into Alaska and colder air over the north Pacific. Consequently, there were increases in temperatures and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the west coast of North America and Alaska but decreases in SSTs over the central north Pacific, as well as changes in coastal rainfall and streamflow, and decreases in sea ice in the Bering Sea. Associated changes occurred in the surface wind stress, and, by inference, in the Sverdrup transport in the north Pacific Ocean. Changes in the monthly mean flow were accompanied by a southward shift in the storm tracks and associated synoptic eddy activity and in the surface ocean sensible and latent heat fluxes. In addition to the changes in the physical environment, the deeper Aleutian low increased the nutrient supply as seen through increases in total chlorophyll in the water column, phytoplankton and zooplankton. These changes, along with the altered ocean currents and temperatures, changed the migration patterns and increased the stock of many fish species. A north Pacific (NP) index is defined to measure the decadal variations, and the temporal variability of the index is explored on daily, annual, interannual and decadal time scales. The dominant atmosphere-ocean relation in the north Pacific is one where atmospheric changes lead SSTs by one to two months. However, strong ties are revealed with events in the tropical Pacific, with changes in tropical Pacific SSTs leading SSTs in the north Pacific by three months. Changes in the storm tracks in the north Pacific help to reinforce and maintain the anomalous circulation in the upper troposphere. A hypothesis is put forward outlining the tropical and extratropical realtionships which stresses the role of tropical forcing but with important feedbacks in the extratropics that serve to emphasize the decadal relative to interannual time scales. The Pacific decadal timescale variations are linked to recent changes in the frequency and intensity of El Niño versus La Niña events but whether climate change associated with ”global warming" is a factor is an open question.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 9 (1994), S. 303-319 
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Considerable evidence has emerged of a substantial decade-long change in the north Pacific atmosphere and ocean lasting from about 1976 to 1988. Observed significant changes in the atmospheric circulation throughout the troposphere revealed a deeper and eastward shifted Aleutian low pressure system in the winter half year which advected warmer and moister air along the west coast of North America and into Alaska and colder air over the north Pacific. Consequently, there were increases in temperatures and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the west coast of North America and Alaska but decreases in SSTs over the central north Pacific, as well as changes in coastal rainfall and streamflow, and decreases in sea ice in the Bering Sea. Associated changes occurred in the surface wind stress, and, by inference, in the Sverdrup transport in the north Pacific Ocean. Changes in the monthly mean flow were accompanied by a southward shift in the storm tracks and associated synoptic eddy activity and in the surface ocean sensible and latent heat fluxes. In addition to the changes in the physical environment, the deeper Aleutian low increased the nutrient supply as seen through increases in total chlorophyll in the water column, phytoplankton and zooplankton. These changes, along with the altered ocean currents and temperatures, changed the migration patterns and increased the stock of many fish species. A north Pacific (NP) index is defined to measure the decadal variations, and the temporal variability of the index is explored on daily, annual, interannual and decadal time scales. The dominant atmosphere-ocean relation in the north Pacific is one where atmospheric changes lead SSTs by one to two months. However, strong ties are revealed with events in the tropical Pacific, with changes in tropical Pacific SSTs leading SSTs in the north Pacific by three months. Changes in the storm tracks in the north Pacific help to reinforce and maintain the anomalous circulation in the upper troposphere. A hypothesis is put forward outlining the tropical and extratropical realtionships which stresses the role of tropical forcing but with important feed-backs in the extratropics that serve to emphasize the decadal relative to interannual time scales. The Pacific decadal timescale variations are linked to recent changes in the frequency and intensity of El Niño versus La Nina events but whether climate change associated with “global warming” is a factor is an open question.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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