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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 382 (1996), S. 56-60 
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] A second-generation global coupled general circulation climate model was integrated for 75 years with atmospheric CO2 levels increasing at a rate of 1% per year compounded. The last 20 years of this experiment are analysed (years 56-75; the CO2 level doubles at approximately year 70) and compared ...
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Regional environmental change 1 (2000), S. 163-179 
    ISSN: 1436-378X
    Keywords: Global climate model Indian monsoon Intraseasonal variability GHG forcings Regional climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract. The broad climatological features associated with the Asian monsoon circulation, including its mean state and intraseasonal and interannual variability over the Indian subcontinent as simulated in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global coupled climate system model (CSM) in its control reference experiment, are presented in this paper. The CSM reproduces the seasonal cycle as well as basic observed patterns of key climatic parameters reasonably well in spite of some limitations in simulation of the monsoon rainfall. However, while the seasonality in rainfall over the region is simulated well, the simulated area-averaged monsoon rainfall is underestimated to only about 60% of the observed rainfall. The centers of maxima in simulated monsoon rainfall are slightly displaced southward as compared to the climatological patterns. The cross-equatorial flow in simulated surface wind patterns during summer is also stronger than observed with an easterly bias. The transient experiment with a 1% per year compound increase in CO2 with CSM suggests an annual mean area-averaged surface warming of about 1.73 °C over the region at the time of CO2 doubling. This warming is more pronounced in winter than during the monsoon season. A net increase in area-averaged monsoon rainfall of about 1.4 mm day–1, largely due to increased moisture convergence and associated convective activity over the land, is obtained. The enhanced intraseasonal variability in the monsoon rainfall in a warmer atmosphere is confined to the early part of the monsoon season which suggests the possibility of the date of onset of summer monsoon over India becoming more variable in future. The enhanced interannual and intraseasonal variability in the summer monsoon activity over India could also contribute to more intense rainfall spells over the land regions of the Indian subcontinent, thus increasing the probability of extreme rainfall events in a warmer atmosphere.
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  • 3
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Components of interannual, intermonthly, and total monthly variability of lower troposphere temperature are calculated from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) (referred to as the coupled model), from the same atmospheric model coupled to a nondynamic mixedlayer ocean (referred to as the mixed-layer model), and from microwave sounding unit (MSU) satellite data. The coupled model produces most features of intermonthly and interannual variability compared to the MSU data, but with somewhat reduced amplitude in the extratropics and increased variability in the tropical western Pacific and tropical Atlantic. The relatively short 14-year period of record of the MSU data precludes definitive conclusions about variability in the observed system at longer time scales (e.g., decadal or longer). Different 14-year periods from the coupled model show variability on those longer time scales that were noted in Part 1 of this series. The relative contributions of intermonthly and interannual variability that make up the total monthly variability are similar between the coupled model and the MSU data, suggesting that similar mechanisms are at work in both the model and observed system. These include El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-type interannual variability in the tropics, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) type intermonthly variability in the tropics, and blocking-type intermonthly variability in the extratropics. Manifestations of all of these features have been noted in various versions of the model. Significant changes of variability noted in the coupled model with doubled carbon dioxide differ from those in our mixed-layer model and earlier studies with mixed-layer models. In particular, in our mixed-layer model intermonthly and interannual variability changes are similar with a mixture of regional increases and decreases, but with mainly decreases in the zonal mean from about 20°S to 60°N and near 60°S. In the coupled model, intermonthly and interannual changes of variability with doubled CO2 show mostly increases of tropical interannual variability and decreases of intermonthly variability near 60°N. These changes in the tropics are related to changes in ENSO, the south Asian monsoon, and other regional hydrological regimes, while the alterations near 60°N are likely associated with changes in blocking activity. These results point to the important contribution from ENSO seen in the coupled model and the MSU data that are not present in the mixed-layer model.
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  • 4
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract. Components of interannual, intermonthly, and total monthly variability of lower troposphere temperature are calculated from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) (referred to as the coupled model), from the same atmospheric model coupled to a nondynamic mixed-layer ocean (referred to as the mixed-layer model), and from microwave sounding unit (MSU) satellite data. The coupled model produces most features of intermonthly and interannual variability compared to the MSU data, but with somewhat reduced amplitude in the extratropics and increased variability in the tropical western Pacific and tropical Atlantic. The relatively short 14-year period of record of the MSU data precludes definitive conclusions about variability in the observed system at longer time scales (e.g., decadal or longer). Different 14-year periods from the coupled model show variability on those longer time scales that were noted in Part 1 of this series. The relative contributions of intermonthly and interannual variability that make up the total monthly variability are similar between the coupled model and the MSU data, suggesting that similar mechanisms are at work in both the model and observed system. These include El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-type interannual variability in the tropics, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)-type intermonthly variability in the tropics, and blocking-type intermonthly variability in the extratropics. Manifestations of all of these features have been noted in various versions of the model. Significant changes of variability noted in the coupled model with doubled carbon dioxide differ from those in our mixed-layer model and earlier studies with mixed-layer models. In particular, in our mixed-layer model intermonthly and interannual variability changes are similar with a mixture of regional increases and decreases, but with mainly decreases in the zonal mean from about 20° S to 60° N and near 60° S. In the coupled model, intermonthly and interannual changes of variability with doubled CO2 show mostly increases of tropical interannual variability and decreases of intermonthly variability near 60° N. These changes in the tropics are related to changes in ENSO, the south Asian monsoon, and other regional hydrological regimes, while the alterations near 60° N are likely associated with changes in blocking activity. These results point to the important contribution from ENSO seen in the coupled model and the MSU data that are not present in the mixed-layer model.
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  • 5
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract A version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research community climate model — a global, spectral (R15) general circulation model — is coupled to a coarse-grid (5° latitude-] longitude, four-layer) ocean general circulation model to study the response of the climate system to increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Three simulations are run: one with an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 (from 330 to 660 ppm), another with the CO2 concentration starting at 330 ppm and increasing linearly at a rate of 1% per year, and a third with CO2 held constant at 330 pm. Results at the end of 30 years of simulation indicate a globally averaged surface air temperature increase of 1.6° C for the instantaneous doubling case and 0.7°C for the transient forcing case. Inherent characteristics of the coarse-grid ocean model flow sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropics and higher-than-observed SSTs and reduced sea-ice extent at higher latitudes] produce lower sensitivity in this model after 30 years than in earlier simulations with the same atmosphere coupled to a 50-m, slab-ocean mixed layer. Within the limitations of the simulated meridional overturning, the thermohaline circulation weakens in the coupled model with doubled CO2 as the high-latitude ocean-surface layer warms and freshens and westerly wind stress is decreased. In the transient forcing case with slowly increasing CO2 (30% increase after 30 years), the zonal mean warming of the ocean is most evident in the surface layer near 30°–50° S. Geographical plots of surface air temperature change in the transient case show patterns of regional climate anomalies that differ from those in the instantaneous CO2 doubling case, particularly in the North Atlantic and northern European regions. This suggests that differences in CO2 forcing in the climate system are important in CO2 response in regard to time-dependent climate anomaly regimes. This confirms earlier studies with simple climate models that instantaneous CO2 doubling simulations may not be analogous in all respects to simulations with slowly increasing CO2.
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  • 6
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract We have developed an improved version of a world ocean model with the intention of coupling to an atmospheric model. This article documents the simulation capability of this 1° global ocean model, shows improvements over our earlier 5° version, and compares it to features simulated with a 0.5° model. These experiments use a model spin-up methodology whereby the ocean model can subsequently be coupled to an atmospheric model and used for order 100-year coupled model integrations. With present-day computers, 1° is a reasonable compromise in resolution that allows for century-long coupled experiments. The 1° ocean model is derived from a 0.5°-resolution model developed by A. Semtner (Naval Postgraduate School) and R. Chervin (National Center for Atmospheric Research) for studies of the global eddy-resolving world ocean circulation. The 0.5° bottom topography and continental outlines have been altered to be compatible with the 1° resolution, and the Arctic Ocean has been added. We describe the ocean simulation characteristics of the 1° version and compare the result of weakly constraining (three-year time scale) the three-dimensional temperature and salinity fields to the observations below the thermocline (710 m) with the model forced only at the top of the ocean by observed annual mean wind stress, temperature, and salinity. The 1° simulations indicate that major ocean circulation patterns are greatly improved compared to the 5° version and are qualitatively reproduced in comparison to the 0.5° version. Using the annual mean top forcing alone in a 100-year simulation with the 1° version preserves the general features of the major observed temperature and salinity structure with most climate drift occurring mainly beneath the thermocline in the first 50–75 years. Because the thermohaline circulation in the 1° version is relatively weak with annual mean forcing, we demonstrate the importance of the seasonal cycle by performing two sensitivity experiments. Results show a dramatic intensification of the meridional overturning circulation (order of magnitude) with perpetual winter surface temperature forcing in the North Atlantic and strong intensification (factor of three) with perpetual early winter temperatures in that region. These effects are felt throughout the Atlantic (particularly an intensified and northward-shifted Gulf Stream outflow). In the Pacific, the temperature gradient strengthens in the thermocline, thus helping counter the systematic error of a thermocline that is too diffuse.
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 11 (1995), S. 399-411 
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Two competing cloud-radiative feedbacks identified in previous studies i.e., cloud albedo feedback and the super greenhouse effect, are examined in a sensitivity study with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Cloud albedo feedback is strengthened in a sensitivity experiment by lowering the sea-surface temperature (SST) threshold in the specified cloud albedo feedback scheme. This simple parameterization requires coincident warm SSTs and deep convection for upper-level cloud albedos to increase. The enhanced cloud albedo feedback in the sensitivity experiment results in decreased maximum values of SST and cooler surface temperatures over most areas of the planet. There is also a cooling of the tropical troposphere with attendant global changes of atmospheric circulation reminiscent of those observed during La Niña or cold events in the Southern Oscillation. The strengthening of the cloud albedo feedback only occurs over warm tropical oceans (e.g., the western Pacific warm pool), where there is increased albedo, decreased absorbed solar radiation at the surface, stronger surface westerlies, enhanced westward currents, lower temperatures, and decreased precipitation and evaporation. However, the weakened convection over the tropical western Pacific Ocean alters the large-scale circulation in the tropics such that there is increased upper-level divergence over tropical land areas and the tropical Indian Ocean. This results in increased precipitation in those regions and intensified monsoonal regimes. The enhanced precipitation over tropical land areas produces increased clouds and albedo and wetter and cooler land surfaces. These additional contributions to decreased absorbed solar input at the surface combine with similar changes over the tropical oceans to produce the global cooling associated with the stronger cloud albedo feedback. Increased low-level moisture convergence and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean enhance slightly the super greenhouse effect there. But the stronger cloud albedo feedback is still the dominant effect, although cooling of SSTs in that region is less than in the tropical western Pacific Ocean. The sensitivity experiment demonstrates how a regional change of radiative forcing is quickly transmitted globally through a combination of radiative and dynamical processes in the coupled model. This study points to the uncertainties involved with the parameterization of cloud albedo and the major implications of such parameterizations concerning the maximum values of SST, global climate sensitivity, and climate change.
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 11 (1995), S. 399-411 
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract. Two competing cloud-radiative feedbacks identified in previous studies i.e., cloud albedo feedback and the super greenhouse effect, are examined in a sensitivity study with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Cloud albedo feedback is strengthened in a sensitivity experiment by lowering the sea-surface temperature (SST) threshold in the specified cloud albedo feedback scheme. This simple parameterization requires coincident warm SSTs and deep convection for upper-level cloud albedos to increase. The enhanced cloud albedo feedback in the sensitivity experiment results in decreased maximum values of SST and cooler surface temperatures over most areas of the planet. There is also a cooling of the tropical troposphere with attendant global changes of atmospheric circulation reminiscent of those observed during La Niña or cold events in the Southern Oscillation. The strengthening of the cloud albedo feedback only occurs over warm tropical oceans (e.g., the western Pacific warm pool), where there is increased albedo, decreased absorbed solar radiation at the surface, stronger surface westerlies, enhanced westward currents, lower temperatures, and decreased precipitation and evaporation. However, the weakened convection over the tropical western Pacific Ocean alters the large-scale circulation in the tropics such that there is increased upper-level divergence over tropical land areas and the tropical Indian Ocean. This results in increased precipitation in those regions and intensified monsoonal regimes. The enhanced precipitation over tropical land areas produces increased clouds and albedo and wetter and cooler land surfaces. These additional contributions to decreased absorbed solar input at the surface combine with similar changes over the tropical oceans to produce the global cooling associated with the stronger cloud albedo feedback. Increased low-level moisture convergence and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean enhance slightly the super greenhouse effect there. But the stronger cloud albedo feedback is still the dominant effect, although cooling of SSTs in that region is less than in the tropical western Pacific Ocean. The sensitivity experiment demonstrates how a regional change of radiative forcing is quickly transmitted globally through a combination of radiative and dynamical processes in the coupled model. This study points to the uncertainties involved with the parameterization of cloud albedo and the major implications of such parameterizations concerning the maximum values of SST, global climate sensitivity, and climate change.
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 5 (1990), S. 19-33 
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract It has long been believed that a climate model capable of realistically simulating many features of global climate, variability, and climate change must interactively represent the major components of the dynamically coupled climate system, particularly the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere. This effort traditionally has been constrained by computing power, our understanding of the observed system, and climate modeling capability. With the advent of supercomputers, improved understanding of global climate processes, and computationally efficient general circulation climate models, we have witnessed a rapid increase in the simulation of global climate by coupling together various representations of atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice. Beginning in the late 1960s and continuing through the early 1980s, general circulation models (GCMs) of the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice were coupled and run asynchronously to produce credible simulations of the global climate. Systematic errors in these component models later led some modeling groups to use flux correction or flux adjustment, whereby either one or several of the variables at the air-sea interface are adjusted to bring the simulations in closer agreement with observations. Further advances in computing power and climate modeling techniques in the past few years have allowed global coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs to be run synchronously (i.e., atmosphere and ocean communicate at least once each model day). Computing constraints, combined with the need for multidecadal climate integrations, still only allow relatively coarse-grid ocean GCMs to be coupled to correspondingly coarse-grid atmospheric models (on the order of 500 km × 500 km). However, results from this current generation of global, coupled GCMs have revealed interesting characteristics associated with ocean dynamics and global climate in experiments with gradual increases of carbon dioxide. Another somewhat surprising aspect of the global-coupled GCM simulations is the appearance of some features associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Along with concurrent efforts with other types of limited-domain, dynamical coupled models, this has led to the realization that inherent unstable coupled modes exist in the climate system that are the unique product of the interactive coupling of the atmosphere and the ocean. All of these efforts are leading to the next generation of coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs. These models will run on even faster and larger-memory computers and will have higher-resolution atmosphere and ocean components, more accurate sea-ice formulations, improved cloud-radiation schemes, and increasingly realistic land-surface processes.
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  • 10
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Results are presented from two versions of a global R15 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a nondynamic, 50-m deep, slab ocean. Both versions include a penetrative convection scheme that has the effect of pumping more moisture higher into the troposphere. One also includes a simple prescribed functional dependence of cloud albedo in areas of high sea-surface temperature (SST) and deep convection. Previous analysis of observations has shown that in regions of high SST and deep convection, the upper-level cloud albedos increase as a result of the greater optical depth associated with increased moisture content. Based on these observations, we prescribe increased middle- and upper-level cloud albedos in regions of SST greater than 303 K where deep convection occurs. This crudely accounts for a type of cloud optical property feedback, but is well short of a computed cloud-optical property scheme. Since great uncertainty accompanies the formulation and tuning of such schemes, the prescribed albedo feedback is an intermediate step to examine basic feedbacks and sensitivities. We compare the two model versions (with earlier results from the same model with convective adjustment) to a model from the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) having convective adjustment and a computed cloud optical properties feedback scheme and to several other GCMs. The addition of penetrative convection increases tropospheric moisture, cloud amount, and planetary albedo and decreases net solar input at the surface. However, the competing effect of increased downward infrared flux (from increased tropospheric moisture) causes a warmer surface and increased latent heat flux. Adding the prescribed cirrus albedo feedback decreases net solar input at the surface in the tropics, since the cloud albedos increase in regions of high SST and deep convection. Downward infrared radiation (from increased moisture) also increases, but this effect is overpowered by the reduced solar input in the tropics. Therefore, the surface is somewhat cooler in the tropics, latent heat flux decreases, and global average sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 with regard to temperature and precipitation/evaporation feedback is reduced. Similar processes, evident in the CCC model with convective adjustment and a computed cloud optical properties feedback scheme, occur over a somewhat expanded latitudinal range. The addition of penetrative convection produces global effects, as does the prescribed cirrus albedo feedback, although the strongest local effects of the latter occur in the tropics.
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