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  • 1
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: Recent reforms that aim at reducing the upcoming burdens of population ageing might seriously harm low income individuals. An increase in old-age poverty and disability will be the result. Under this prospect, the present paper quantitatively characterizes the optimal progressivity of unfunded pension systems in an overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic income, disability and longevity risk as well as endogenous labor supply at the intensive and extensive margin. Focusing on the German pension system, our model features the most recent demographic projections and distinguishes three skill classes with skill-dependent risk profiles. Starting from a baseline path that reflects a purely earnings related pension system, we increase the degree of progressivity and compute the resulting macroeconomic, welfare and efficiency effects. For our most preferred parametrization we find an optimal flat-rate pension share of 40 percent. This indicates that in Germany recent reforms that aim at raising retirement age and cutting benefit levels should be complemented by increases in pension progressivity, since improved insurance provision dominates higher labor supply distortions. In addition, we also find that reductions in the benefit level (i.e. privatization) will only reduce economic efficiency.
    Keywords: C68 ; H55 ; J11 ; J26 ; ddc:330 ; stochastic OLG model ; tax-benefit linkage ; endogenous retirement ; population ageing
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-08
    Description: The present paper quantifies the economic consequences of eliminating the system of income splitting in Germany. We apply a dynamic simulation model with overlapping generations where single and married agents have to decide on labor supply and homework facing income and lifespan risk. The numerical exercise computes the resulting welfare changes across households and isolates aggregate efficiency effects of a move towards either individual taxation or family splitting. Our results indicate strongly that a switch towards individual taxation performs best in terms of economic efficiency due to reduced labor market distortions and improved insurance provision. In our benchmark calibration the efficiency gain amounts to roughly 0.4 percent of aggregate resources. Excluding home production significantly reduces aggregate efficiency gains while including marital risk slightly improves the efficiency of individual taxation.
    Keywords: H21 ; H24 ; J12 ; J22 ; ddc:330 ; stochastic general equilibrium ; home production ; female labor supply ; tax unit choice ; insurance provision
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-23
    Description: The present paper quantifies the importance of family insurance for the analysis of social security. We therefore augment the standard overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic labor productivity and longevity risk in that we account for gender and marital status. We simulate the abolition of pay-as-you-go pension payments, calculate the resulting intergenerational welfare changes and isolates aggregate efficiency effects for singles and families by means of compensating transfers. In accordance with previous studies that take into account transitional dynamics, we find that abolishing social security creates significant efficiency losses. Most importantly, however, we show that singles are substantially worse off from a shut-down of old-age payments compared to married couples. A decomposition of the efficiency loss reveals that this difference can be almost exclusively attributed to the insurance role of the family with respect to longevity risk. Since a married individual inherits her spouse’s wealth after his death and the likelihood that both partners reach a very old age is relatively small, marriage serves as an insurance device against longevity risk for the surviving partner.
    Keywords: J12 ; J22 ; ddc:330 ; stochastic general equilibrium ; home production ; family insurance
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2018-01-31
    Description: The present paper aims to quantify the growth and welfare consequences of changing family structures in western societies. For this reason we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with both genders which takes into account changes of the marital status as a stochastic process. Individuals respond to these shocks by adjusting savings and labor supply. Our quantitative results indicate that the declining number of marriages coupled with increasing divorce rates had a profound effect on macroeconomic variables and long-run welfare. We find a significant increase in aggregate capital accumulation and a rising labor market participation of women. In addition, our simulations indicate that the change in the marital structure had significant negative welfare consequences for women who lost between 0.4 and 2.2 percent of aggregate resources. The impact on men's welfare, however, could be positive or negative depending on the specific calibration.
    Keywords: J12 ; J22 ; ddc:330 ; family formation ; stochastic general equilibrium ; life cycle model
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2019-01-16
    Description: There is an intensive debate about old-age poverty in Germany that has induced political parties to develop proposals for higher pensions of poor pensioners in light of the federal elections of September 2013. In addition, several proposals from economists aim at reforming the pension system in a way that mitigates old-age poverty. In this paper, we consider these proposals in a computable general equilibrium model in order to derive their effects on the income distribution, on employment, on the capital stock and on GDP. Our results indicate that negative employment, capital and GDP effects are induced by such reforms as compared to the alternative of basic means-tested social welfare in old-age. Moreover, the strongest beneficiaries would be the currently higher age employees with low in-come and much less the respective younger employees, while younger and higher age employees with high and medium incomes will lose.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 6
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    Wiesbaden: Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung
    Publication Date: 2019-01-16
    Description: Just a few months after the federal elections in Germany, the so called pension package entered into force. It mainly contains three measures: higher pensions for mothers with children born before 1992 ("mother pension"), a reduced retirement age for persons who contributed to the pension system for at least 45 years ("pension with 63") and boost pensions of people who cannot work due to disability ("disability pensions augmentation"). In this paper, we derive the effects of these measures in a computable general equilibrium model on the contribution and replacement rates, as well as on employment, the capital stock and GDP. Furthermore, we analyse the welfare effects of these three measures. Our results indicate that the reforms induce a higher contribution rate, a lower replacement rate, as well as negative, but small employment, capital and GDP effects. Moreover, the strongest beneficiaries will be already retired persons, people between 50 and 65 years, who contributed to the pension system for at least 45 years, and people who will receive a disability pension in the future.
    Keywords: C68 ; H55 ; J20 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 7
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    Freiburg i. Br.: Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Allgemeine Wirtschaftsforschung, Abteilung für Wirtschaftspolitik
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: There is an intensive debate about old-age poverty in Germany that has induced political parties to develop proposals for higher pensions of poor pensioners in light of the federal elections of September 2013. In addition, several proposals from economists aim at reforming the pension system in a way that mitigates oldage poverty. In this paper, we consider these proposals in a computable general equilibrium model in order to derive their effects on the income distribution, on employment, on the capital stock and on GDP. Our results indicate that negative employment, capital and GDP effects are induced by such reforms as compared to the alternative of basic means-tested social welfare in old-age. Moreover, the strongest beneficiaries would be the currently higher age employees with low income and much less the respective younger employees, while younger and higher age employees with high and medium incomes will lose.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2019-01-16
    Description: Zukünftig ist mit einem spürbaren Anstieg der Ausgaben der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung (GKV) zu rechnen, dem ein entsprechender Einnahmeanstieg gegenüberstehen muss. Nach geltendem Recht werden dazu die bereits gesetzlich verankerten, aber derzeit noch nicht flächendeckend eingeführten, einkommensunabhängigen Zusatzbeiträge herangezogen, die sozial ausgeglichen werden. Dieser Beitrag untersucht zunächst die Auswirkungen dieser Regelung auf die Entwicklung der Einnahmen der GKV. Anschließend werden beispielhaft verschiedene Optionen zur Weiterentwicklung dieser Zusatzbeiträge hin zu einem einkommens-unabhängigen Arbeitnehmerbeitrag entwickelt und ihre die finanziellen Auswirkungen sowie ihre Wachstums- und Beschäftigungseffekte im Rahmen eines allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodells analysiert. Es zeigt sich, dass eine solche Weiterentwicklung mit positiven Wachstums- und Beschäftigungseffekten verbunden wäre, ohne dass die Belastung über das bereits jetzt festgelegte Maß hinaus ausgeweitet wird. Die Effekte sind umso größer, je früher die Umsetzung beginnt, je schneller sie abgeschlossen ist, je gedämpfter der Ausgabenanstieg verläuft und je stärker die Belastungsquote angehoben wird.
    Keywords: C68 ; I13 ; J20 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 9
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2015-05-22
    Description: The present paper quantifies the economic consequences of eliminating the system of income splitting in Germany. We apply a dynamic simulation model with overlapping generations where single and married agents have to decide on labor supply and homework facing income and lifespan risk. The numerical exercise computes the resulting welfare changes across households and isolates aggregate efficiency effects of a move towards either individual taxation or family splitting.Our results indicate strongly that a switch towards individual taxation performs best in terms of economic efficiency due to reduced labor market distortions and improved insurance provision. In our benchmark calibration the efficiency gain amounts to roughly 0.4 percent of aggregate resources. Excluding home production significantly reduces aggregate efficiency gains while including marital risk slightly improves the efficiency of individual taxation.
    Keywords: H21 ; H24 ; J12 ; J22 ; ddc:330 ; stochastic general equilibrium ; home production ; female labor supply ; tax unit choice ; insurance provision
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 10
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    Unknown
    ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
    Publication Date: 2013-05-22
    Description: Recent reforms that aim at reducing the upcoming burdens of population ageing might seriously harm low income individuals. An increase in old-age poverty and disability will be the result. Under this prospect, the present paper quantitatively characterizes the optimal progressivity of unfunded pension systems in an overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic income, disability and longe\-vi\-ty risk as well as endogenous labor supply at the intensive and extensive margin. Focusing on the German pension system, our model features the most recent demographic projections and distinguishes three skill classes with skill-dependent risk profiles. Starting from a baseline path that reflects a purely earnings related pension system, we increase the degree of progressivity and compute the resulting macroeconomic, welfare and efficiency effects. For our most preferred parametrization we find an optimal flat-rate pension share of 40 percent. This indicates that, together with the recent reforms that aim at increasing retirement age and cutting benefit levels, pension progressivity should be significantly increased in Germany, since improved insurance provision dominates higher labor supply distortions. In addition, we also find that reductions in the benefit level (i.e. privatization) will only reduce economic efficiency.
    Keywords: C68 ; H55 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; stochastic OLG model ; tax-benefit linkage ; endogenous retirement ; population ageing
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:conferenceObject
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