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  • 1
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    Buenos Aires: Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: We estimate a 'Hybrid New-Keynesian Phillips Curve' for Argentina between 1993 and 2007. We extend the model to a small open economy, considering separately the influence of nominal devaluation and foreign inflation on domestic prices. For the whole sample, we find that forward and backward-looking components are relevant although the backward-looking term weights more in determining inflation dynamics. We test for parameter stability and find a break-point in 2002 along with the regime change. In line with recent literature on trend inflation, when trend inflation increases, the influence of the output gap weakens and the curve becomes more forward-looking.
    Keywords: C5 ; E31 ; ddc:330 ; Argentina ; inflation dynamics ; Phillips Curve ; small open economy ; New-Keynesian Phillips Curve ; Argentinien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: In this paper we analyze the impact of immigrants on the type and quantity of native jobs. We use data on fifteen Western European countries during the 1996-2010 period. We find that immigrants, by taking manual-routine type of occupations pushed natives towards more complex (abstract and communication) jobs. Such positive reallocation occurred while the total number of jobs held by natives was unaffected. This job upgrade was associated in the short run to a 0.6% increase in native wages for a doubling of the immigrants' share. These results are robust to the use of two alternative IV strategies based on past settlement of immigrants across European countries measured alternatively with Census or Labor Force data. The job upgrade slowed, but did not come to a halt, during the Great Recession. We also document the labor market flows behind it: the complexity of jobs offered to new native hires was higher relative to the complexity of lost jobs. Finally, we find evidence that such reallocation was significantly larger in countries with more flexible labor laws and that his tendency was particularly strong for less educated workers.
    Keywords: J24 ; J31 ; J61 ; ddc:330 ; Immigration ; Jobs ; Task specialization ; Employment Protection Laws ; Europe
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Buenos Aires: Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: Using frequency domain techniques to separate short and long run dynamics and decomposing inflation into its common and idiosyncratic components, we study the regime dependence of the inflation-RPV relation in Argentina and the USA. Under High inflation, strong long-run comovement between RPV and Inflation is found for both economies, that extends to the short run adding extra noise to that usually present at high frequencies. High inflation also leads to ideosyncratic movements in prices that do not cancel out, adding persistence to the process. When inflation is low, no long-run interaction between variables is expected. This is the case of the US, even though supply shocks are comparable to those of the seventies when trend inflation was high. Surprisingly, the findings for Argentina do not support the a-priori as both variables show significant long term comovement. Studying disaggregate price responses to common shocks helps to understand sectoral pattens behind these dynamics. Our results suggest that long run variablity in inflation can be induced, not only by a high trend inflation, but also by policy stabilization efforts based on relative price adjustments.
    Keywords: C22 ; C43 ; E31 ; E52 ; ddc:330 ; inflation ; frequency domain analysis ; regime ; common shocks ; monetary policy ; relative prices ; Inflation ; Relativer Preis ; Theorie ; Argentinien ; USA
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Buenos Aires: Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: Inflation forecasting plays a central role in monetary policy formulation. At the same time, recent international empirical evidence suggests that with the decline in inflation of recent years, the joint dynamics of this variable and its potential predictors has changed and inflation has become more unpredictable. Using a univariate model as a benchmark, we evaluate the predictive capacity of certain causal models linked to different inflation theories, such as the Phillips Curve and a monetary VAR. We also analyze the predictive power of models that use factors that combine the overall variability of a large number of business cycle time series as predictors. We compare their relative performance using a set of parametric and non-parametric tests proposed by Diebold and Mariano (1995). Although the univariate model performs best, as the forecast horizon lengthens, multivariate models performance improves. In particular, a monetary VAR performs better than the univariate ARMA model in the case of a one-year horizon. Nevertheless, when tests are calculated to evaluate the statistical significance of differences in the predictive capacity of models, taking a univariate ARMA model as a benchmark, differences are not statistically significant. Finally, estimated models are pooled to forecast inflation. Some of the forecast combinations outperform the best individual forecast over a one-year horizon. Taking into account that a one year-horizon is relevant for economic policy decisions, the possibility of combining both univariate and multivariate models for forecasting purpose is interesting, because it it can also be helpful to answer specific economic policy questions.
    Keywords: C32 ; E31 ; E37 ; ddc:330 ; Argentina ; inflation forecast ; multivariate models ; pooling ; univariate models ; Inflation ; Prognose ; Argentinien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 5
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    Buenos Aires: Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: Inflation forecasting plays a central role in monetary policy formulation. At the same time, recent international empirical evidence suggests that with the decline in inflation of recent years, the joint dynamics of this variable and its potential predictors has changed and inflation has become more unpredictable. Using a univariate model as a benchmark, we evaluate the predictive capacity of certain causal models linked to different inflation theories, such as the Phillips Curve and a monetary VAR. We also analyze the predictive power of models that use factors that combine the overall variability of a large number of business cycle time series as predictors. We compare their relative performance using a set of parametric and non-parametric tests proposed by Diebold and Mariano (1995). Although the univariate model performs best, as the forecast horizon lengthens, multivariate models performance improves. In particular, a monetary VAR performs better than the univariate ARMA model in the case of a one-year horizon. Nevertheless, when tests are calculated to evaluate the statistical significance of differences in the predictive capacity of models, taking a univariate ARMA model as a benchmark, differences are not statistically significant. Finally, estimated models are pooled to forecast inflation. Some of the forecast combinations outperform the best individual forecast over a one-year horizon. Taking into account that a one year-horizon is relevant for economic policy decisions, the possibility of combining both univariate and multivariate models for forecasting purpose is interesting, because it it can also be helpful to answer specific economic policy questions.
    Keywords: C32 ; E31 ; E37 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: Unconventional fiscal policy uses announcements of future increases in consumption taxes to generate inflation expectations and accelerate consumption expenditure. It is budget neutral and time consistent. We exploit a unique natural experiment for an empirical test of the effectiveness of unconventional fiscal policy. To comply with European Union law, the German government announced in November 2005 an unexpected 3-percentage-point increase in value-added tax (VAT), effective in 2007. The shock increased households' inflation expectations during 2006 and actual inflation in 2007. Germans' willingness to purchase durables increased by 34% after the shock, compared to before and to matched households in other European countries not exposed to the VAT shock. Income, wealth effects, or intratemporal substitution cannot explain these results.
    Keywords: D12 ; D84 ; D91 ; E21 ; E31 ; E32 ; E52 ; E65 ; ddc:330 ; Zero-Lower Bound ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Durable Consumption ; Survey Data ; Household Consumption
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Helsinki: The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-16
    Description: This paper charts the complex dynamics of the movement of technical talent in the world economy and assesses broadly the impact of such mobility on both sending and receiving countries. Based on secondary data and primary information from the Indian and Japanese IT industry, the study presents a global view of the movement of talent and its development and policy implications. By synthesizing disparate data and the multifaceted processes and outcomes of international mobility, the paper examines some of the distributional issues of gains and losses in both sending and receiving countries.
    Keywords: F22 ; I28 ; J24 ; L86 ; ddc:330 ; international migration ; education ; government policy ; human capital ; skills ; information services ; computer software ; Internationale Arbeitsmobilität ; Humankapital ; Softwareindustrie ; Indien ; Japan
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Helsinki: The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-16
    Description: The objective here is to understand how the mobility of technical talent might be changing the structural relationship between rich and poor countries. This paper examines the under-researched relationship between India and Japan in the context of globalization, migration, and developmental impact with demographic, immigration, and innovation policy issues as key themes. By focusing on the export of technical talent, I argue that India could tap its overseas ‘brain bank’ by diversifying IT export markets, create epistemic networks, meet impending skill shortages in Japan, and induce long-term innovative capability. Immigration reforms and freer movement of talent will be critical.
    Keywords: F22 ; J24 ; O19 ; O57 ; ddc:330 ; international migration ; technical talent ; IT industry ; innovation and development ; ‘brain bank’ ; India ; Japan ; Brain Drain ; Informationstechnik ; Globalisierung ; Indien ; Japan
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2016-11-05
    Description: Unconventional fiscal policy uses announcements of future increases in consumption taxes to generate inflation expectations and accelerate consumption expenditure. It is budget neutral and time consistent. We exploit a unique natural experiment for an empirical test of the effectiveness of unconventional fiscal policy. To comply with European Union law, the German government announced in November 2005 an unexpected 3-percentage-point increase in value-added tax (VAT), effective in 2007. The shock increased households' inflation expectations during 2006 and actual inflation in 2007. Germans' willingness to purchase durables increased by 34% after the shock, compared to before and to matched households in other European countries not exposed to the VAT shock. Income, wealth effects, or intratemporal substitution cannot explain these results.
    Keywords: D12 ; D84 ; D91 ; E21 ; E31 ; E32 ; E52 ; E65 ; ddc:330 ; zero-lower bound ; fiscal and monetary policy ; durable consumption ; survey data
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2016-04-16
    Description: Unconventional fiscal policies incentivize households to accelerate consumption by generating future consumer price ination, and offer an alternative to unconventional monetary policy (Correia et al. (2013)). We use a natural experiment to study the causal effect of unconventional fiscal policies on consumption expenditure via the inflation-expectations channel. The German administration unexpectedly announced in November 2005 a three-percentage-point increase in value-added tax (VAT) effective in 2007. This shock increased German households’ inflation expectations during 2006, as well as actual inflation in 2007. Matched households in other European countries serve as counterfactuals in a difference-in-differences identification design. German households’ willingness to purchase durable goods increased by 34% after the shock, compared to matched foreign households. Income or wealth effects do not appear to drive these results, and we do not find evidence of intratemporal substitution from non-durable to durable consumption.
    Keywords: D12 ; D84 ; D91 ; E21 ; E31 ; E32 ; E52 ; E65 ; ddc:330 ; durable consumption ; zero lower bound ; fiscal and monetary policy ; survey data
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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