ALBERT

Description: Hydrological modelling is the same as developing and encoding a hydrological theory. A hydrological model is not a tool but a hypothesis. The whole discussion about the inadequacy of hydrological models we have witnessed of late, is related to the wrong concept of what a model is. Good models don't exist. Instead of looking for the "best" model, we should aim at developing better models. The process of modelling should be top-down, learning from the data while at the same time connection should be established with underlying physical theory (bottom-up). As a result of heterogeneity occurring at all scales in hydrology, there always remains a need for calibration of models. This implies that we need tailor-made and site-specific models. Only flexible models are fit for this modelling process, as opposed to most of the established software or "one-size-fits-all" models. The process of modelling requires imagination, inspiration, creativity, ingenuity, experience and skill. These are qualities that belong to the field of art. Hydrology is an art as much as it is science and engineering.

Description: It is widely recognized that food consumption patterns significantly impact water requirements. The aim of this paper is to quantify how food consumption patterns influence water requirements in China. The findings show that per capita water requirement for food (CWRF) has increased from 255 m3 cap-1y−1 in 1961 to 860 m3 cap-1 y−1 in 2003, largely due to an increase in the consumption of animal products in recent decades. Although steadily increasing, the CWRF of China is still much lower than that of many developed countries. The total water requirement for food (TWRF) has been determined as 1127 km3 y-1 in 2003. Three scenarios are proposed to project future TWRF, representing low, medium, and high levels of modernization (S1, S2, and S3, respectively). Analysis of these three scenarios indicates that TWRF will likely continue to increase in the next three decades. An additional amount of water ranging between 407 and 515 km3 y-1 will be required in 2030 compared to the TWRF in 2003. This will undoubtedly put high pressure on China's already scarce water resources. We conclude that the effect of the food consumption patterns on China's water resources is substantial both in the recent past and in the near future. China will need to strengthen "green water" management and to take advantage of "virtual water" import to meet the additional TWRF.

Description: The use of flexible hydrological model structures for hypothesis testing requires an objective and diagnostic method to identify whether a rainfall-runoff model structure is suitable for a certain catchment. To determine if a model structure is realistic, i.e. if it captures the relevant runoff processes, both performance and consistency are important. We define performance as the ability of a model structure to mimic a specific part of the hydrological behaviour in a specific catchment. This can be assessed based on evaluation criteria, such as the goodness of fit of specific hydrological signatures obtained from hydrological data. Consistency is defined as the ability of a model structure to adequately reproduce several hydrological signatures simultaneously while using the same set of parameter values. In this paper we describe and demonstrate a new evaluation Framework for Assessing the Realism of Model structures (FARM). The evaluation framework tests for both performance and consistency using a principal component analysis on a range of evaluation criteria, all emphasizing different hydrological behaviour. The utility of this evaluation framework is demonstrated in a case study of two small headwater catchments (Maimai, New Zealand, and Wollefsbach, Luxembourg). Eight different hydrological signatures and eleven model structures have been used for this study. The results suggest that some model structures may reveal the same degree of performance for selected evaluation criteria while showing differences in consistency. The results also show that some model structures have a higher performance and consistency than others. The principal component analysis in combination with several hydrological signatures is shown to be useful to visualise the performance and consistency of a model structure for the study catchments. With this framework performance and consistency are evaluated to identify which model structure suits a catchment better compared to other model structures. Until now the framework has only been based on a qualitative analysis and not yet on a quantitative analysis.

Description: Conceptual environmental system models, such as rainfall runoff models, generally rely on calibration for parameter identification. Increasing complexity of this type of models for better representation of hydrological process heterogeneity, typically makes parameter identification more difficult. Although various, potentially valuable, approaches for better parameter estimation have been developed, strategies to impose general conceptual understanding of how a catchment works into the process of parameter estimation has not been fully explored. In this study we assess the effects of imposing semi-quantitative, relational inequality constraints, based on expert-knowledge, for model development and parameter specification, efficiently exploiting the complexity of a semi-distributed model formulation. Making use of a topography driven rainfall-runoff modeling (FLEX-TOPO) approach, a catchment was delineated into three functional units, i.e., wetland, hillslope and plateau. Ranging from simple to complex, three model setups, FLEXA, FLEXB and FLEXC were developed based on these functional units, where FLEXA is a lumped representation of the study catchment, and the semi-distributed formulations FLEXB and FLEXC progressively introduce more complexity. In spite of increased complexity, FLEXB and FLEXC allow modelers to compare parameters, as well as states and fluxes, of their different functional units to each other, allowing the formulation of constraints that limit the feasible parameter space. We show that by allowing for more landscape-related process heterogeneity in a model, e.g., FLEXC, the performance increases even without traditional calibration. The additional introduction of relational constraints further improved the performance of these models.

Description: This paper reports the experience of a regional network of academic departments involved in water education that started as a project and evolved, over a period of 12 yr, into an independent network organisation. The paper pursues three objectives. First, it argues that it makes good sense to organise postgraduate education and research on water resources on a regional scale and presents the WaterNet experience as an example that a regional approach can work. Second, it presents preliminary findings and conclusions that the regional approach presented by WaterNet did make a contribution to the capacity needs of the region both in terms of management and research capacity. Third, it draws two generalised lessons from the WaterNet experience. Lesson one pertains to the importance of legitimate ownership and an accountability structure for network effectiveness. Lesson two is related to the financial and intellectual resources required to jointly developing educational programmes through shared experience.

Description: Despite its local and regional importance, hydro-meteorological data on the Sudd (one of Africa's largest wetlands) is very scanty. This is due to the physical and political situation of this area of Sudan. The areal size of the wetland, the evaporation rate, and the influence on the micro and meso climate are still unresolved questions of the Sudd hydrology. The evaporation flux from the Sudd wetland has been estimated using thermal infrared remote sensing data and a parameterization of the surface energy balance (SEBAL model). It is concluded that the actual spatially averaged evaporation from the Sudd wetland over 3 years of different hydrometeorological characteristics varies between 1460 and 1935 mm/yr. This is substantially less than open water evaporation. The wetland area appears to be 70% larger than previously assumed when the Sudd was considered as an open water body. The temporal analysis of the Sudd evaporation demonstrated that the variation of the atmospheric demand in combination with the inter-annual fluctuation of the groundwater table results into a quasi-constant evaporation rate in the Sudd, while open water evaporation depicts a clear seasonal variability. The groundwater table characterizes a distinct seasonality, confirming that substantial parts of the Sudd are seasonal swamps. The new set of spatially distributed evaporation parameters from remote sensing form an important dataset for calibrating a regional climate model enclosing the Nile Basin. The Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO) provides an insight not only into the temporal evolution of the hydro-climatological parameters, but also into the land surface climate interactions and embedded feedbacks. The impact of the flooding of the Sudd on the Nile hydroclimatology has been analysed by simulating two land surface scenarios (with and without the Sudd wetland). The paper presents some of the model results addressing the Sudd's influence on rainfall, evaporation and runoff of the river Nile, as well as the influence on the microclimate. The paper presents a case study that confirms the feasibility of using remote sensing data (with good spatial and poor temporal coverage) in conjunction with a regional climate model. The combined model provides good temporal and spatial representation in a region characterized by extremely scarce ground data.

Description: This paper presents the results of a field experiment conducted in Kerala, South India, to test the effectiveness of coir geotextiles for embankment protection. The results reveal that treatment with geotextile in combination with grass is an effective eco-hydrological measure to protect steep slopes from erosion. In the context of sustainable watershed management, coir is a cheap and locally available material that can be used to strengthen traditional earthen bunds or protect the banks of village ponds from erosion. Particularly in developing countries, where coir is abundantly available and textiles can be produced by small-scale industry, this is an attractive alternative for conventional methods. This paper analyses the performance of coir geotextile in different treatments with respect to soil moisture content, protection against erosion and biomass production.

Description: Variations of water stocks in the upper Zambezi river basin have been determined by 2 different hydrological modelling approaches. The purpose was to provide preliminary terrestrial storage estimates in the upper Zambezi, which will be compared with estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) in a future study. The first modelling approach is GIS-based, distributed and conceptual (STREAM). The second approach uses Lumped Elementary Watersheds identified and modelled conceptually (LEW). The STREAM model structure has been assessed using GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) a posteriori to determine parameter identifiability. The LEW approach could, in addition, be tested for model structure, because computational efforts of LEW are low. Both models are threshold models, where the non-linear behaviour of the Zambezi river basin is explained by a combination of thresholds and linear reservoirs. The models were forced by time series of gauged and interpolated rainfall. Where available, runoff station data was used to calibrate the models. Ungauged watersheds were generally given the same parameter sets as their neighbouring calibrated watersheds. It appeared that the LEW model structure could be improved by applying GLUE iteratively. Eventually, it led to better identifiability of parameters and consequently a better model structure than the STREAM model. Hence, the final model structure obtained better represents the true hydrology. After calibration, both models show a comparable efficiency in representing discharge. However the LEW model shows a far greater storage amplitude than the STREAM model. This emphasizes the storage uncertainty related to hydrological modelling in data-scarce environments such as the Zambezi river basin. It underlines the need and potential for independent observations of terrestrial storage to enhance our understanding and modelling capacity of the hydrological processes. GRACE could provide orthogonal information that can help to constrain and further enhance our models. In the near future, other remotely sensed data sources will be used to force modelling efforts of the Zambezi (e.g. satellite rainfall estimates) and to identify individual storage components in the GRACE observations (e.g. altimeter lake levels and microwave soil moisture). Ultimately, this will create possibilities for state updating of regional hydrological models using GRACE.

Description: In hydrological models, evaporation from interception is often disregarded, combined with transpiration, or taken as a fixed percentage of rainfall. In general interception is not considered to be a significant process in rainfall-runoff modelling. However, it appears that on average interception can amount to 20–50% of the precipitation. Therefore, knowledge about the process of interception is important. Traditional research on interception mainly focuses on canopy interception and almost completely denies forest floor interception, although this is an important mechanism that precedes infiltration or runoff. Forest floor interception consists partly of interception by dry soil, partly of interception by short vegetation (mosses, grasses and creeping vegetation) and partly of interception by litter. This research project concentrates on litter interception: to measure its quantities at point scale and subsequently to upscale it to that of a hydrotope. A special measuring device has been developed, which consists of a permeable upper basin filled with forest floor, and a watertight lower basin. Both are weighed continuously. The device has been tested in the Huewelerbach catchment (Luxembourg). The preliminary measuring results show that the device is working properly. For November 2004, evaporation from interception was calculated to be 14 mm of 42 mm throughfall (i.e., 34%).

Description: This paper presents a detailed performance and sensitivity analysis of a recently developed hydrological landscape classification method based on dominant runoff mechanisms. Three landscape classes are distinguished: wetland, hillslope and plateau, corresponding to three dominant hydrological regimes: saturation excess overland flow, storage excess sub-surface flow, and deep percolation. Topography, geology and land use hold the key to identifying these landscapes. The height above the nearest drainage (HAND) and the surface slope, which can be easily obtained from a digital elevation model, appear to be the dominant topographical controls for hydrological classification. In this paper several indicators for classification are tested as well as their sensitivity to scale and resolution of observed points (sample size). The best results are obtained by the simple use of HAND and slope. The results obtained compared well with the topographical wetness index. The HAND based landscape classification appears to be an efficient method to ''read the landscape'' on the basis of which conceptual models can be developed.