Publication Date:
2018-02-16
Description:
Among scoring methods employed to determine the performance of
probability predictions, the log-likelihood method is the most common and useful.
Although the log-likelihood score evaluates the comprehensive power of forecasts,
we need to further evaluate the topical predictive powers of respective factors of seismicity,
such as total numbers, occurrence times, locations, and magnitudes. For this
purpose, we used the conditional- or marginal-likelihood function based on the observed
events. Such topical scores reveal both strengths and weaknesses of a forecasting
model and suggest the necessary improvements. We applied these scores to the
probability forecasts during the devastating period of March 2011, during which the
Mw 9.0 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku-Oki earthquake struck. However, the evaluations
did not suggest that any of the prospective forecast models were consistently
satisfactory. Hence, we undertook two additional types of retrospective forecasting
experiments to investigate the reasons, including the possibility that the seismicity
rate pattern has changed after the M 9 mega-earthquake. In addition, our experiments
revealed a technical difficulty in the one-day forecasting protocol adopted by the
Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Results of further
experiments lead us to recommend specific modifications to the CSEP protocols, leading
to real-time forecasts and their evaluations
Description:
Published
Description:
1692–1708
Description:
5T. Modelli di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
Description:
6T. Variazioni delle caratteristiche crostali e precursori
Description:
JCR Journal
Keywords:
Earthquake Prediction
;
Seismic Risk
;
Tohoku-Oki earthquake
;
04.06. Seismology
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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