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  • 11
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    A spectral approach to estimating the timescale-dependent uncertainty of paleoclimate records – Part 2: Application and interpretation (2021)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-08
    Description: Proxy climate records are an invaluable source of information about the earth's climate prior to the instrumental record. The temporal and spatial coverage of records continues to increase; however, these records of past climate are associated with significant uncertainties due to non-climate processes that influence the recorded and measured proxy values. Generally, these uncertainties are timescale dependent and correlated in time. Accounting for structure in the errors is essential for providing realistic error estimates for smoothed or stacked records, detecting anomalies, and identifying trends, but this structure is seldom accounted for. In the first of these companion articles, we outlined a theoretical framework for handling proxy uncertainties by deriving the power spectrum of proxy error components from which it is possible to obtain timescale-dependent error estimates. Here in Part 2, we demonstrate the practical application of this theoretical framework using the example of marine sediment cores. We consider how to obtain estimates for the required parameters and give examples of the application of this approach for typical marine sediment proxy records. Our new approach of estimating and providing timescale-dependent proxy errors overcomes the limitations of simplistic single-value error estimates. We aim to provide the conceptual basis for a more quantitative use of paleo-records for applications such as model–data comparison, regional and global synthesis of past climate states, and data assimilation.
    Print ISSN: 1814-9324
    Electronic ISSN: 1814-9332
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 12
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    Frequency-Dependent Estimation of Effective Spatial Degrees of Freedom (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-01
    Description: Climate variability occurs over wide ranges of spatial and temporal scales. It exhibits a complex spatial covariance structure, which depends on geographic location (e.g., tropics vs extratropics) and also consists of a superposition of (i) components with gradually decaying positive correlation functions and (ii) teleconnections that often involve anticorrelations. In addition, there are indications that the spatial covariance structure depends on frequency. Thus, a comprehensive assessment of the spatiotemporal covariance structure of climate variability would require an extensive set of statistical diagnostics. Therefore, it is often desirable to characterize the covariance structure by a simple summarizing metric that is easy to compute from datasets. Such summarizing metrics are useful, for example, in the context of comparisons between climate models or between models and observations. Here we introduce a frequency-dependent version of a simple measure of the effective spatial degrees of freedom. The measure is based on the temporal variance of the global average of some climate variable, and its novel aspect consists in its frequency dependence. We also provide a clear geometric interpretation of the measure. Its easy applicability is demonstrated using near-surface temperature and precipitation fields obtained from a paleoclimate model simulation. This application reveals a distinct scaling behavior of the spatial degrees of freedom as a function of frequency, ranging from monthly to millennial scales.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 13
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    Factors influencing Northern Hemisphere winter mean atmospheric circulation anomalies during the period 1960/61 to 2001/02 (2012)
    Royal Meteorological Society
    In:  Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138 . pp. 1970-1982.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Influences from the Tropics, the stratosphere and the specification of observed sea surface temperature and sea-ice (SSTSI) on Northern Hemisphere winter mean circulation anomalies during the period 1960/61 to 2001/02 are studied using a relaxation technique applied to the ECMWF model. On interannual time-scales, the Tropics strongly influence the Pacific sector but also the North Atlantic sector, although weakly. The stratosphere is found to be influential on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on interannual time-scales but is less important over the Pacific sector. Adding the observed SSTSI to the tropical relaxation runs generally improves the model performance on interannual time-scales but degrades/enhances the model’s ability to capture the 42-year trend over the Pacific/Atlantic sector. While relaxing the stratosphere to the reanalysis fails to capture the trend over the whole 42-year period, the stratosphere is shown to be influential on the upward trend of the NAO index from 1965 to 1995, but with reduced amplitude compared to previous studies. Influence from the Tropics is found to be important for the trend over both time periods and over both sectors although, across all experiments, we can account for only 30% of the amplitude of the hemispheric trend. Copyright c� 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 14
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    Effect of the Kinematic Lower Boundary Condition on the Spectral and Auto-correlation Structure of Annular Variability in the Troposphere (2013)
    In:  [Poster] In: EGU Fall Meeting, 09.-13.12.2013, San Francisco, USA .
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-01-13
    Description: The dynamical origin of the spectral and auto-correlation structure of annular variability in the troposphere is investigated by a deductive approach. Specifically, the structure of the power spectrum and auto-correlation function of the zonal mean geopotential is analysed, for the case of a quasi-geostrophic spherical atmosphere subject to a white noise mechanical forcing applied in a single Hough mode and concentrated at a particular level in the vertical, with vertically uniform Newtonian cooling and Rayleigh drag concentrated at a rigid lower boundary. Analytic expressions for the power spectrum are presented together with expressions for an approximate red noise, i.e. a Lorentzian shaped power spectrum. It is found that for an infinitely deep atmosphere the power spectrum can be well approximated by a red noise process for the first few Hough modes (associated with large Rossby heights), provided the distance from the forcing is not larger than about one Rossby height. When a frictional rigid lower boundary is included, however, the approximation is generally bad. The high-frequency part of the power spectrum exhibits near exponential behaviour and the auto-correlation function shows a transition from a rapid decay at short lags to a much slower decay at longer lags. Since observed Northern Annular Mode variability exhibits the same characteristics, the above results lead to the hypothesis that these characteristics may be intrinsic to the linear zonal mean response problem—and may neither need to be explained by slow external forcings, nor by more advanced concepts like deterministic low-order chaos, as suggested in the literature.
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 15
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    On the northern annular mode surface signal associated with stratospheric variability (2013)
    In:  [Talk] In: SPARC DynVar/SNAP workshop, 22.-24.04.2013, Reading, UK .
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-01-13
    Description: The wintertime northern annular mode (NAM) at the surface is known to undergo slow intra-seasonal variations in association with stratospheric variability which leads the surface signal by up to several weeks. The relative contributions, however, of potentially relevant stratospheretroposphere coupling mechanisms are not yet fully understood. In this study the relative roles, of (i) the downward effect of the zonal-mean secondary circulation induced by quasi-geostrophic (QG) adjustment to stratospheric wave drag and radiative damping and (ii) of wave drag local to the troposphere, are estimated. For this purpose, a spectral tendency equation of the QG zonal-mean zonal wind is derived, and used, in a first step, to obtain the external mechanical forcing which, in the QG framework, drives exactly the observed stratospheric and tropospheric daily NAM. In a second step, the equation is then integrated in time to reconstruct the daily NAM, but with the forcing restricted to either stratospheric or tropospheric levels, each case leaving a characteristic NAM surface signal. The relative roles of the above-mentioned mechanisms are found to be of similar quantitative importance, but to differ in a qualitative sense. The downward effect of stratospheric QG adjustment is responsible for the initiation of the NAM surface signal, whereas subsequently local tropospheric wave drag actively maintains and persists the signal over several weeks. Furthermore, the downward effect of QG adjustment to stratospheric radiative damping is shown to have only a minor impact, compared to that from stratospheric wave drag. The robustness of these conclusions is demonstrated by a sensitivity study with respect to various model parameters.
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 16
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    Tropical origin of the severe European winter of 1962/63 (2015)
    Royal Meteorological Society
    In:  Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 . pp. 153-165.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-13
    Description: A set of relaxation experiments using the ECMWF atmospheric model is used to analyse the severe European winter of 1962/63. We argue that the severe winter weather was associated with a wave train that originated in the tropical Pacific sector (where weak La Nina conditions were present) and was redirected towards Europe, a process we suggest was influenced by the combined effect of the strong easterly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO ) and unusually strong easterly winds in the upper equatorial troposphere that winter. A weak tendency towards negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions in December, associated with extratropical sea surface temperature and sea-ice anomalies, might have acted as a favourable preconditioning. The redirection of the wave train towards Europe culminated in the stratospheric sudden warming at the end of January 1963. We argue that in February, the sudden warming event helped maintain the negative NAO regime, allowing the severe weather to persist for a further month. A possible influence from the Madden-Julian Oscillation, as well as a role for internal atmospheric variability, is noted.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 17
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    Effect of the Kinematic Lower Boundary Condition on the Spectral and Autocorrelation Structure of Annular Variability in the Troposphere (2014)
    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71 (6). pp. 2264-2279.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: The dynamical origin of the spectral and autocorrelation structure of annular variability in the troposphere is investigated by a deductive approach. Specifically, the structure of the power spectrum and autocorrelation function of the zonal-mean geopotential is analyzed for the case of a quasigeostrophic spherical atmosphere subject to a white noise mechanical forcing applied in a single Hough mode and concentrated at a particular level in the vertical, with vertically uniform Newtonian cooling and Rayleigh drag concentrated at a rigid lower boundary. Analytic expressions for the power spectrum are presented together with expressions for an approximate red noise (i.e., a Lorentzian-shaped) power spectrum. It is found that for an infinitely deep atmosphere the power spectrum can be well approximated by a red noise process for the first few Hough modes (associated with large Rossby heights), provided the distance from the forcing is not larger than about one Rossby height. When a frictional rigid lower boundary is included, however, the approximation is generally bad. The high-frequency part of the power spectrum exhibits near-exponential behavior and the autocorrelation function shows a transition from a rapid decay at short lags to a much slower decay at longer lags, if the thermal and mechanical damping time scales are sufficiently well separated. Since observed annular variability exhibits the same characteristics, the above results lead to the hypothesis that these characteristics may, to some extent, be intrinsic to the linear zonal-mean response problem—although the need for an additional contribution from eddy feedbacks is also implied by the results.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 18
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    On the Northern Annular Mode Surface Signal Associated with Stratospheric Variability (2013)
    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 70 (7). pp. 2103-2118.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: The wintertime northern annular mode (NAM) at the surface is known to undergo slow intraseasonal variations in association with stratospheric variability, which leads the surface signal by up to several weeks. The relative contributions, however, of potentially relevant stratosphere–troposphere coupling mechanisms are not yet fully understood. In this study the relative roles of (i) the downward effect of the zonal-mean secondary circulation induced by quasigeostrophic (QG) adjustment to stratospheric wave drag and radiative damping and (ii) wave drag local to the troposphere are estimated. For this purpose, a spectral tendency equation of the QG zonal-mean zonal wind is derived and used, in a first step, to obtain the external mechanical forcing that, in the QG framework, drives exactly the observed stratospheric and tropospheric daily NAM. In a second step, the equation is then integrated in time to reconstruct the daily NAM, but with the forcing restricted to either stratospheric or tropospheric levels, each case leaving a characteristic NAM surface signal. The relative roles of the above-mentioned mechanisms are found to be of similar quantitative importance, but to differ in a qualitative sense. The downward effect of stratospheric QG adjustment is responsible for the initiation of the NAM surface signal, whereas subsequently local tropospheric wave drag actively maintains and persists the signal over several weeks. Furthermore, the downward effect of QG adjustment to stratospheric radiative damping is shown to have only a minor impact, compared to that from stratospheric wave drag. The robustness of these conclusions is demonstrated by a sensitivity study with respect to various model parameters.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 19
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    A spectral approach to estimating the timescale-dependent uncertainty of paleoclimate records – Part 1: Theoretical concept (2020)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Proxy records represent an invaluable source of information for reconstructing past climatic variations, but they are associated with considerable uncertainties. For a systematic quantification of these reconstruction errors, however, knowledge is required not only of their individual sources but also of their auto-correlation structure as this determines the timescale dependence of their magnitude, an issue that has been often ignored until now. Here a spectral approach to uncertainty analysis is provided for paleoclimate reconstructions obtained from single sediment proxy records. The formulation in the spectral domain rather than the time domain allows for an explicit demonstration and quantification of the timescale dependence that is inherent in any proxy-based reconstruction uncertainty. This study is published in two parts. In this first part, the theoretical concept is presented, and analytic expressions are derived for the power spectral density of the reconstruction error of sediment proxy records. The underlying model takes into account the spectral structure of the climate signal, seasonal and orbital variations, bioturbation, sampling of a finite number of signal carriers, and uncorrelated measurement noise, and it includes the effects of spectral aliasing and leakage. The uncertainty estimation method, based upon this model, is illustrated by simple examples. In the second part of this study, published separately, the method is implemented in an application-oriented context, and more detailed examples are presented.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 20
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    A spectral approach to estimating the timescale-dependent uncertainty of paleoclimate records – Part 2: Application and interpretation (2021)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Proxy climate records are an invaluable source of information about the earth's climate prior to the instrumental record. The temporal and spatial coverage of records continues to increase; however, these records of past climate are associated with significant uncertainties due to non-climate processes that influence the recorded and measured proxy values. Generally, these uncertainties are timescale dependent and correlated in time. Accounting for structure in the errors is essential for providing realistic error estimates for smoothed or stacked records, detecting anomalies, and identifying trends, but this structure is seldom accounted for. In the first of these companion articles, we outlined a theoretical framework for handling proxy uncertainties by deriving the power spectrum of proxy error components from which it is possible to obtain timescale-dependent error estimates. Here in Part 2, we demonstrate the practical application of this theoretical framework using the example of marine sediment cores. We consider how to obtain estimates for the required parameters and give examples of the application of this approach for typical marine sediment proxy records. Our new approach of estimating and providing timescale-dependent proxy errors overcomes the limitations of simplistic single-value error estimates. We aim to provide the conceptual basis for a more quantitative use of paleo-records for applications such as model–data comparison, regional and global synthesis of past climate states, and data assimilation.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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