ALBERT

Description: Central Asia is one of the seismically most active regions in the world. Its complex seismicity due to the collision of the Eurasian and Indian plates has resulted in some of the world’s largest intra-plate events over history. The region is dominated by reverse faulting over strike slip and normal faulting events. The GSHAP project (1999), aiming at a hazard assessment on a global scale, indicated that the region of Central Asia is characterized by peak ground accelerations for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years as high as 9 m/s 2 . In this study, carried out within the framework of the EMCA project (Earthquake Model Central Asia), the area source model and different kernel approaches are used for a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Central Asia. The seismic hazard is assessed considering shallow (depth 〈 50 km) seismicity only and employs an updated (with respect to previous projects) earthquake catalog for the region. The seismic hazard is calculated in terms of macroseismic intensity (MSK-64), intended to be used for the seismic risk maps of the region. The hazard maps, shown in terms of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, are derived by using the OpenQuake software [Pagani et al. 2014], which is an open source software tool developed by the GEM (Global Earthquake Model) foundation. The maximum hazard observed in the region reaches an intensity of around 8 in southern Tien Shan for 475 years mean return period. The maximum hazard estimated for some of the cities in the region, Bishkek, Dushanbe, Tashkent and Almaty, is between 7 and 8 (7-8), 8.0, 7.0 and 8.0 macroseismic Intensity, respectively, for 475 years mean return period, using different approaches. The results of different methods for assessing the level of seismic hazard are compared and their underlying methodologies are discussed.

Description: During the past centuries, many cities in Central Asia have suffered significant damages caused by earthquakes. A crucial step towards preparedness for future events, the definition of the optimal engineering designs for civil structures and the mitigation of earthquake risks involves the accomplishment of site response studies. To accurately identify local variations of the site response at different locations within the cities, earthquakes recorded by seismic networks as well as measurements of the seismic noise can be used for estimating the resonance frequencies and for evaluating the expected level of ground motion at each site. Additionally, the measurements can help identifying site specific features like more-dimensional resonances and directional effects. This information can be complemented with array measurements of ambient seismic noise in order to estimate local shear-wave velocity profiles, an essential parameter for evaluating the dynamic properties of soil, and to characterize the corresponding sediment layers at each site. The present study gives an overview on the progressive development of the seismic zonation studies in the frame of EMCA carried out in several cities in Central Asia.

Description: Rapidly expanding urban areas in Central Asia are increasingly vulnerable to seismic risk; but at present, no earthquake early warning (EEW) systems exist in the region despite their successful implementation in other earthquake-prone areas. Such systems aim to provide short (seconds to tens of seconds) warnings of impending disaster, enabling the first risk mitigation and damage control steps to be taken. This study presents the feasibility of a large scale cross-border regional system for Central Asian countries. Genetic algorithms are used to design efficient EEW networks, computing optimal station locations and trigger thresholds in recorded ground acceleration. Installation of such systems within 3 years aims to both reducing the endemic lack of strong motion data in Central Asia that is limiting the possibility of improving seismic hazard assessment, and at providing the first regional earthquake early warning system in the area.

Description: SUMMARY Computing the magnitude of an earthquake requires correcting for the propagation effects from the source to the receivers. This is often accomplished by performing numerical simulations using a suitable Earth model. In this work, the energy magnitude M e is considered and its determination is performed using theoretical spectral amplitude decay functions over teleseismic distances based on the global Earth model AK135Q. Since the high frequency part (above the corner frequency) of the source spectrum has to be considered in computing M e , the influence of propagation and site effects may not be negligible and they could bias the single station M e estimations. Therefore, in this study we assess the inter- and intrastation distributions of errors by considering the M e residuals computed for a large data set of earthquakes recorded at teleseismic distances by seismic stations deployed worldwide. To separate the inter- and intrastation contribution of errors, we apply a maximum likelihood approach to the M e residuals. We show that the interstation errors (describing a sort of site effect for a station) are within ±0.2 magnitude units for most stations and their spatial distribution reflects the expected lateral variation affecting the velocity and attenuation of the Earth's structure in the uppermost layers, not accounted for by the 1-D AK135Q model. The variance of the intrastation error distribution (describing the record-to-record component of variability) is larger than the interstation one (0.240 against 0.159), and the spatial distribution of the errors is not random but shows specific patterns depending on the source-to-station paths. The set of coefficients empirically determined may be used in the future to account for the heterogeneities of the real Earth not considered in the theoretical calculations of the spectral amplitude decay functions used to correct the recorded data for propagation effects.

Description: SUMMARY 3-D shear wave velocity images are of particular interest for engineering seismology. To obtain information about the local subsoil structure, we present a one-step inversion procedure based on the computation of high-frequency correlation functions between stations of a small-scale array deployed for recording ambient seismic noise. The calculation of Rayleigh wave phase velocities is based on the frequency-domain SPatial AutoCorrelation technique. Constitutively, a tomographic inversion of the traveltimes estimated for each frequency is performed, allowing the laterally varying 3-D surface wave velocity structure below the array to be retrieved. We test our technique by using simulations of seismic noise for a simple realistic site and by using real-world recordings from a small-scale array performed at the Nauen test site (Germany). The results imply that the cross-sections from passive seismic interferometry provide a clear image of the local structural heterogeneities and the shear wave velocities are satisfactorily reproduced. The velocity structure is also found to be in good agreement with the results of geoelectrical measurements, indicating the potential of the method to be easily applied for deriving the shallow 3-D velocity structure in urban areas and for monitoring purposes.

Description: One of the key parameters for earthquake source physics is stress drop since it can be directly linked to the spectral level of ground motion. Stress drop estimates from moment-corner frequency analysis have been shown to be extremely variable, and this to a much larger degree than expected from the between-event ground motion variability. This discrepancy raises the question whether classically determined stress drop variability is too large, which would have significant consequences for seismic hazard analysis. We use a large high-quality dataset from Japan with well-studied stress drop data to address this issue. Non-parametric and parametric reference ground motion models are derived and the relation of between-event residuals for JMA equivalent seismic intensity and peak ground acceleration with stress drop is analyzed for crustal earthquakes. We find a clear correlation of the between-event residuals with stress drops estimates; however, while the island of Kyushu is characterized by substantially larger stress drops than Honshu, the between-event residuals do not reflect this observation, leading to the appearance of two event families with different stress drops levels yet similar range of between-event residuals. Both the within-family and between-family stress drop variations are larger than expected from the ground motion between-event variability. A systematic common analysis of these parameters holds the potential to provide important constraints on the relative robustness of different groups of data in the different parameter spaces and to improve our understanding on how much of the observed source parameter variability is likely to be true source physics variability.

Description: We propose a P-wave based procedure for the rapid estimation of the radiated seismic energy, and a novel relationship for obtaining an energy-based local magnitude (MLe) measure of the earthquake size. We apply the new procedure to the seismic sequence that struck central Italy in 2016. Scaling relationships involving seismic moment and radiated energy are discussed for the Mw 6.0 Amatrice, Mw 5.9 Ussita and Mw 6.5 Norcia earthquakes, including 35 ML 〉4 aftershocks. The Mw 6.0 Amatrice earthquake shows the highest apparent stress, and the observed differences among the three main events highlight the dynamic heterogeneity with which large earthquakes can occur in central Italy. Differences between estimates of MLe and Mw allows identification of events which are characterized by a higher proportion of energy being transferred to seismic waves, providing important real-time indications of earthquakes shaking potential.