ALBERT

Description: The IPCC Assessment Reports offer the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitute an unmatched resource for climate change researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding across diverse climate change research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesise essential research advances. We collected input from experts on different fields using an online questionnaire and prioritised a set of ten key research insights with high policy relevance. This year we focus on: (1) looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgency of phasing-out fossil fuels, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future of natural carbon sinks, (5) need for join governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in the science of compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We first present a succinct account of these Insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a report targeted to policymakers as a contribution to elevate climate science every year, in time for the UNFCCC COP.

Description: This chapter focuses on the methods used to predict the movement of parts of the Earth system towards tipping points. It begins by introducing the theory of critical slowing down (CSD), a general phenomenon of slowing recovery from perturbations that happens in many systems being forced slowly towards a tipping point. Then, it describes the various methods that can be used to estimate the occurrence of CSD and the approach of a tipping point, beginning with methods based on changes over time in the system, spatial changes, or changes in network structure, up to more advanced modelling techniques, including AI. These ‘early warning signals’ (EWS) can be used on data from a number of different sources, be these models, field experiments or remotely sensed data from satellites. The chapter considers various case studies that use real-world observations, to show how these methods are being used to predict losses in resilience in these systems. Finally, it explores limitations and potential solutions in the field of EWS, looking ahead to advances in data availability and what this could mean for predicting the movement towards tipping in these Earth systems in the future.

Description: Here we present the results of the demonstration tests that took place in Summer 2018 during the final months of the four-year Best Paths project. Details will be given on the assembly and finalizing of the demonstrator installation as well as the testing strategy defined for HVDC superconducting cables and adopted in the project. Some possibilities of installation within the electricity grids will also be discussed.

Description: Profound societal transformations are needed to move society from unsustainability to greater sustainability under continually changing social and environmental conditions. A key challenge is to understand the influences on and the dynamics of collective behavior change toward sustainability. In this paper we describe our approach to (1) understanding how affective narrative expressions influence transitions to more sustainable collective behaviors and (2) how that understanding, as well as the potential for using narrative expressions in modeling of social movements, can become a basis for improving community responses to change in a rapidly changing world. Our focus is on narratives that express visions of desirable futures and narratives that reflect individual and social identities, on the cultures and contexts in which they are embedded, exchanged, and modified, and through which they influence the dynamics of social movements toward sustainability. Using an analytical categorization of narrative expressions of case studies in the Caribbean, Micronesia, and Africa, we describe insights derived from the narratives of vision and social identities in diverse communities. Finally, we suggest that narrative expressions may provide a basis for agent-based modeling to expand thinking about potential development pathways of social movements for sustainable futures.

Description: Climate change has been labelled the human rights challenge of the twenty-first century. Loss and damage resulting from climate change, in particular, poses a severe threat to the human rights of affected communities. However, the international response to climate change under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has thus far insufficiently taken human rights into account, contributing to policy outcomes inadequate to protecting communities affected by loss and damage. This article proposes the adoption of a human rights-based approach as a strategic tool for policymakers to strengthen the international response to loss and damage. The approach builds on the existing obligations of Parties under international and regional human rights treaties and provides a method for systematically integrating human rights that goes beyond mere mainstreaming of human rights. Specifically, the article identifies opportunities for anchoring such an approach under the Warsaw International Mechanism and key mechanisms for the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Conversely, it considers the integration of loss and damage in the work of relevant human rights bodies, specifically the United Nations Human Rights Council and the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.

Description: Ozone (O3) is an important atmospheric oxidant, a greenhouse gas, and a hazard to human health and agriculture. Here we describe airborne in situ measurements and model simulations of O3 and its precursors during tropical and extratropical field campaigns over South America and Europe, respectively. Using the measurements, net ozone formation/destruction tendencies are calculated and compared to 3-D chemistry–transport model simulations. In general, observation-based net ozone tendencies are positive in the continental boundary layer and the upper troposphere at altitudes above  ∼  6 km in both environments. On the other hand, in the marine boundary layer and the middle troposphere, from the top of the boundary layer to about 6–8 km altitude, net O3 destruction prevails. The ozone tendencies are controlled by ambient concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx). In regions with net ozone destruction the available NOx is below the threshold value at which production and destruction of O3 balance. While threshold NO values increase with altitude, in the upper troposphere NOx concentrations are generally higher due to the integral effect of convective precursor transport from the boundary layer, downward transport from the stratosphere and NOx produced by lightning. Two case studies indicate that in fresh convective outflow of electrified thunderstorms net ozone production is enhanced by a factor 5–6 compared to the undisturbed upper tropospheric background. The chemistry–transport model MATCH-MPIC generally reproduces the pattern of observation-based net ozone tendencies but mostly underestimates the magnitude of the net tendency (for both net ozone production and destruction).

Description: G20 should initiate a global Ocean governance process and call for Ocean Economy dialogues, strategies and regional cooperation to ensure that investment and growth in ocean use become sustainable and reach their full potential.The ocean is the largest and a most critical ecosystem on Earth, with many interactions between the ocean Sustainable Development Goal (SDG14) and other SDGs. It is one of the most biologically diverse and highly productive system on the planet, and potentially the largest provider of food, materials, energy, and ecosystem services. However, past and current maritime sectors’ uses of the ocean continue to be unsustainable. Increasing demand for resources, technological advances, overfishing, climate change, pollution, biodiversity and habitat loss, along with inadequate stewardship and law enforcement, are contributing to the ocean’s decline.As a standing agenda item for the G20, and with associated good governance, a sustainable Ocean Economy can improve the health and productivity of ocean ecosystems, and reverse the current cycle of deline. Better governance, appreciation of the economic value of the ocean and ‘Blue Economy’ strategies can reduce conflicts among uses, ensure financial sustainability, ecosystem integrity and prosperity, and promote long-term national growth and employment in maritime industries.

Description: This deliverable 5.2 is a compilation of novel research of 16 coal-and-carbon-intensive regions (CCIRs). These case studies were carried under the umbrella of the Tipping Plus project from 2020 until 2023. This collection presents empirical data and their analysis on the diverse transition processes in CCIRs. This report helps define the boundaries of the CCIR and to develop the narratives for each case study considering perspectives from different disciplines across the work packages: WP1 (geography including demography), WP2 (culture & social psychology), WP3 (policy, politics & governance) and WP4 (economics). Empirical findings help to critically study the concept of socio-ecological tipping points. Additionally, each case study presents key trends, and factors that either enable or hinder low-carbon transitions. This novel collection was a collective work of more than fourty-five partners from the Tipping Plus consortium.

Description: BEST PATHS (acronym for “BEyond State-of-the-art Technologies for rePowering Ac corridors and multi-Terminal HVDC Systems”) is a collaborative project within the FP7 framework of the European Commission that includes an MgB2-based power transmission line among its five constituent demonstrators. Led by Nexans and bringing together transmission operators, industry and research organizations, this demonstrator aims at validating the novel MgB2 technology for very high power transfer (gigawatt range). An overview of the project is presented in this paper, including the main tasks and challenges ahead, as well as the partners and their roles.