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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Driven by climate change, marine biodiversity is undergoing a phase of rapid change that has proven to be even faster than changes observed in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding how these changes in species composition will affect future marine life is crucial for conservation management, especially due to increasing demands for marine natural resources. Here, we analyse predictions of a multiparameter habitat suitability model covering the global projected ranges of 〉33,500 marine species from climate model projections under three CO2 emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) up to the year 2100. Our results show that the core habitat area will decline for many species, resulting in a net loss of 50% of the core habitat area for almost half of all marine species in 2100 under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. As an additional consequence of the continuing distributional reorganization of marine life, gaps around the equator will appear for 8% (RCP2.6), 24% (RCP4.5), and 88% (RCP8.5) of marine species with cross-equatorial ranges. For many more species, continuous distributional ranges will be disrupted, thus reducing effective population size. In addition, high invasion rates in higher latitudes and polar regions will lead to substantial changes in the ecosystem and food web structure, particularly regarding the introduction of new predators. Overall, our study highlights that the degree of spatial and structural reorganization of marine life with ensued consequences for ecosystem functionality and conservation efforts will critically depend on the realized greenhouse gas emission pathway.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Latitudinal diversity gradients (LDGs) of species richness in most marine taxa appear to be bimodal with a dip at the equator. We compared LDGs for modeled ranges of 5,619 marine fish species, and distinguished between: all, pelagic, demersal, bony and cartilaginous fish groups; five taxonomic levels of class, order, family, genus and species; and four depth zones namely whole water column, 0–200 m, 200–1,000 m, and 1,000–6,000 m; at 5° latitudinal intervals. The modality of 88 LDGs was examined visually and using Hartigan's dip statistic. We found 80 LDGs were bimodal (or not unimodal), two gradients were unimodal and six gradients were ambiguous. All species and genera, and 19 families among fish groups and depth zones had bimodal or not unimodal LDGs. The northern hemisphere mode had 2–6% greater richness from species to order richness. Overall fish, the peak of richness shifted poleward across taxonomic levels, from 25°N for species to median 48°N for class and from 10°S for genus to 35°S for class. Temperature and salinity were significantly correlated with the LDG. Our findings using fish species ranges support previous analyses using species' occurrences, namely that the LDG of marine species is bimodal, by generalizing this to all taxonomic levels and depth zones. That the LDG with a dip near the equator supports the hypothesis that it is primarily temperature driven, and that the equator is already too hot for some species.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2023-09-22
    Description: Driven by climate change, marine biodiversity is undergoing a phase of rapid change that has proven to be even faster than changes observed in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding how these changes in species composition will affect future marine life is crucial for conservation management, especially due to increasing demands for marine natural resources. Here, we analyse predictions of a multiparameter habitat suitability model covering the global projected ranges of 〉33,500 marine species from climate model projections under three CO2 emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) up to the year 2100. Our results show that the core habitat area will decline for many species, resulting in a net loss of 50% of the core habitat area for almost half of all marine species in 2100 under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. As an additional consequence of the continuing distributional reorganization of marine life, gaps around the equator will appear for 8% (RCP2.6), 24% (RCP4.5), and 88% (RCP8.5) of marine species with cross-equatorial ranges. For many more species, continuous distributional ranges will be disrupted, thus reducing effective population size. In addition, high invasion rates in higher latitudes and polar regions will lead to substantial changes in the ecosystem and food web structure, particularly regarding the introduction of new predators. Overall, our study highlights that the degree of spatial and structural reorganization of marine life with ensued consequences for ecosystem functionality and conservation efforts will critically depend on the realized greenhouse gas emission pathway.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
    Format: application/pdf
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