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  • 11
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    Decadal hindcasts initialized using observed surface wind stress: Evaluation and prediction out to 2024 (2015)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (15). pp. 6454-6461.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-10
    Description: We use surface air temperature to evaluate the decadal forecast skill of the fully coupled Max Planck Institut Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) initialized using only surface wind stress applied to the ocean component of the model (Modini: Model initialization by partially coupled spin-up). Our analysis shows that the greenhouse gas forcing alone results in a significant forecast skill on the 2–5 and 6–9 year range even for uninitialized hindcasts. For the first forecast year, the forecast skill of Modini is generally comparable with previous initialization procedures applied to MPI-ESM. But only Modini is able to generate a significant skill (correlation) in the tropical Pacific for a 2–5 year (and to a lesser extent for a 6–9 year) hindcast. Modini is also better able to capture the observed hiatus in global warming in hindcast mode than the other methods. Finally, we present forecasts for 2015 and the average of years 2016–2019 and 2020–2024, predicting an end to the hiatus.
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  • 12
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    Atmospheric Response to the North Pacific Enabled by Daily Sea Surface Temperature Variability (2015)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (18). pp. 7732-7739.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-10
    Description: Ocean–atmosphere interactions play a key role in climate variability on a wide range of time scales from seasonal to decadal and longer. The extratropical oceans are thought to exert noticeable feedbacks on the atmosphere especially on decadal and longer time scales, yet the large-scale atmospheric response to anomalous extratropical sea surface temperature (SST) is still under debate. Here we show, by means of dedicated high-resolution atmospheric model experiments, that sufficient daily variability in the extratropical background SST needs to be resolved to force a statistically significant large-scale atmospheric response to decadal North Pacific SST anomalies associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is consistent with observations. The large-scale response is mediated by atmospheric eddies. This implies that daily extratropical SST fluctuations must be simulated by the ocean components and resolved by the atmospheric components of global climate models to enable realistic simulation of decadal North Pacific sector climate variability.
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  • 13
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    Seasonal variability of eddy kinetic energy in a global high-resolution ocean model (2015)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (21). pp. 9379-9386.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-04
    Description: A global ocean model with 1/12∘ horizontal resolution is used to assess the seasonal cycle of surface Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE). The model reproduces the salient features of the observed mean surface EKE, including amplitude and phase of its seasonal cycle in most parts of the ocean. In all subtropical gyres of the Pacific and Atlantic, EKE peaks in summer down to a depth of ∼350 m, below which the seasonal cycle is weak. Investigation of the possible driving mechanisms reveals the seasonal changes in the thermal interactions with the atmosphere to be the most likely cause of the summer maximum of EKE. The development of the seasonal thermocline in spring and summer is accompanied by stronger mesoscale variations in the horizontal temperature gradients near the surface which corresponds, by thermal wind balance, to an intensification of mesoscale velocity anomalies towards the surface.
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  • 14
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    Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a model with an improved North Atlantic Current (2016)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (15). pp. 8199-8206.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: We examine the simulated Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) in a model that includes a correction for a longstanding problem with climate models, namely the misplacement of the North Atlantic Current. The corrected model shows that in the warm AMV phase, heat is lost by the ocean in the northwestern part of the basin and gained by the ocean to the east, suggesting an advective transfer of heat by the mid-latitude westerlies. The basin wide response is consistent with a role for cloud feedback and is in broad agreement with estimates from observations, but is poorly represented in the uncorrected model. The corrected model is then used to show that the ocean/atmosphere heat transfer is influenced by low frequency variability in the overlying atmosphere. We also argue that changing ocean heat transport is an essential feature of our results.
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  • 15
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    Impact of variability in the Indian summer monsoon on the East Asian summer monsoon (2013)
    Wiley
    In:  Atmospheric Science Letters, 14 (1). pp. 14-19.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: We report on model experiments that support the hypothesis that the second mode of variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon is influenced by the variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon. The results suggest that the recent trend towards drier conditions in northern China in summer is, at least partly, a consequence of the synchronous drying trend over India in summer noted by some authors.
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  • 16
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    Tropical influence independent of ENSO on the austral summer Southern Annular Mode (2014)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (10). pp. 3643-3648.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-10
    Description: A link between atmospheric variability in the Tropics independent of ENSO and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is found based on seasonal mean data for austral summer. Variations associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are removed usinga linear method and a Tropics Index (TI) is defined as the zonal average of the ENSO-removed 500 hPa geopotential height between 10°S and 10°N. Since the detrended TI shows no link to SST variability in the Tropics, it appears to be related to internal atmospheric variability. We find that the TI can explain about 40% variance of the SAM interannual variability and about 75% of the SAM long term trend between 1957/58 and 2001/02, where here the SAM includes the ENSO signal. Positive/negative values of the TI are associated with the positive/negative SAM. A possible link between the TI and global warming is noted.
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  • 17
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    An exploratory model study of sediment transport sources and deposits in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea (2013)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118 . pp. 1-16.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-02-27
    Description: A regional ocean circulation model (ROMS) is used to simulate the Chinese land-derived sediment transport in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea (BYECS). The model includes the effect of currents, tides, and waves on the sediment transport and is used to study the pathway and dynamic mechanisms of the fine-grain sediment transport from the Huanghe River (Yellow River), the Old Huanghe Delta, and the Changjiang River (Yangtze River) in the BYECS. The seasonal variability of the sediment transport in the BYECS and the sources of the Yellow Sea Trough mud patch, the mud patch southwest of Cheju Island, the mud patch offshore from the Zhejiang and Fujian provinces and the Okinawa Trough mud patch are discussed. The results show that the Huanghe River sediment can be transported to the Yellow Sea Trough, but little makes it to the outer shelf while the Old Huanghe Delta sediment is mainly transported to the Yellow Sea Trough. Most of the sediment from the Changjiang River mouth is carried to the mud patch off the coast of the Zhejiang and Fujian provinces but with part of this sediment also transported to the Yellow Sea Trough. The model shows that it is difficult to transport land-derived sediment to the Okinawa Trough mud patch under normal conditions. The model also has difficulty accounting for the deposition of sediment in the region to the southwest of Cheju Island and offshore from the Zhejiang and Fujian provinces, an issue requiring further study.
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  • 18
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    On the spatial and temporal distribution of near-inertial energy in the Southern Ocean (2014)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 119 (1). pp. 359-376.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: We use an eddying realistic primitive equation model of the Southern Ocean to examine the spatial and temporal distribution of near-inertial wind-power input (WPI) and near-inertial energy (NIE) in the Southern Ocean. We find that the modelled near-inertial WPI is almost proportional to inertial wind-stress variance (IWSV), while the modelled NIE is modulated by the inverse of the mixed-layer depth. We go on to assess recent decadal trends of near-inertial WPI from trends of IWSV based on reanalysis wind-stress. Averaged over the Southern Ocean, annual-mean IWSV is found to have increased by 16 percent over the years 1979 through 2011. Part of the increase of IWSV is found to be related to the positive trend of the Southern Annular Mode over the same period. Finally, we show that there are horizontal local maxima of NIE at depth that are almost exclusively associated with anticyclonic eddies.
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  • 19
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    Factors Influencing the Seasonal Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Severe Winter Storms (2019)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (1). pp. 365-373.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-01-31
    Description: We investigate the role of the tropics, the stratosphere, and atmosphere‐ocean coupling for seasonal forecasts of strong, potentially damaging, Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter wind storm frequencies. This is done by means of relaxation experiments with the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts model, which allow us to prescribe perfect forecasts for specific parts of the coupled atmosphere‐ocean system. We find that perfect predictions of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere significantly enhance winter storm predictive skill between eastern Greenland and Northern Europe. Correct seasonal predictions of the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warmings play a decisive role. The importance of correctly predicting the tropics and of two‐way atmosphere‐ocean coupling, both for forecasting stratospheric sudden warming risk and, correspondingly, severe winter storm frequency, is noted.
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  • 20
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    Tropical precipitation influencing boreal winter midlatitude blocking (2019)
    Royal Meteorological Society | Wiley
    In:  Atmospheric Science Letters, 20 (5). e900.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-01-31
    Description: Recent studies using reanalysis data and complex models suggest that the Tropics influence midlatitude blocking. Here, the influence of tropical precipitation anomalies is investigated further using a dry dynamical model driven by specified diabatic heating anomalies. The model uses a quasi‐realistic setup based on idealized orography and an idealized representation of the land‐ocean thermal contrast. Results concerning the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation are mostly consistent with previous studies and emphasize the importance of tropical dynamics for driving the variability of blocking at midlatitudes. It is also shown that a common bias in models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), namely, excessive tropical precipitation, leads to an underestimation of midlatitude blocking in our model, also a common bias in the CMIP5 models. The strongest blocking anomalies associated with the tropical precipitation bias are found over Europe, where the underestimation of blocking in CMIP5 models is also particularly strong.
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