ALBERT

Description: This synthesis discusses the emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production. While much is known about these emissions, there is still much that is unknown about the details surrounding these emissions. This synthesis explores our knowledge of these emissions in terms of why there is concern about them; how they are calculated; the major global efforts on inventorying them; their global, regional, and national totals at different spatial and temporal scales; how they are distributed on global grids (i.e. maps); how they are transported in models; and the uncertainties associated with these different aspects of the emissions. The magnitude of emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels has been almost continuously increasing with time since fossil fuels were first used by humans. Despite events in some nations specifically designed to reduce emissions, or which have had emissions reduction as a byproduct of other events, global total emissions continue their general increase with time. Global total fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions are known to within 10% uncertainty (95% confidence interval). Uncertainty on individual national total fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions range from a few percent to more than 50%. The information discussed in this manuscript synthesizes global, regional and national fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions, their distributions, their transport, and the associated uncertainties.

Description: A globally integrated carbon observation and analysis system is needed to improve the fundamental understanding of the global carbon cycle, to improve our ability to project future changes, and to verify the effectiveness of policies aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration. Building an integrated carbon observation system requires transformational advances from the existing sparse, exploratory framework towards a dense, robust, and sustained system in all components: anthropogenic emissions, the atmosphere, the ocean, and the terrestrial biosphere. The goal of this study is to identify the current state of carbon observations and needs for a global integrated carbon observation system that can be built in the next decade. A key conclusion is the substantial expansion (by several orders of magnitude) of the ground-based observation networks required to reach the high spatial resolution for CO2 and CH4 fluxes, and for carbon stocks for addressing policy relevant objectives, and attributing flux changes to underlying processes in each region. In order to establish flux and stock diagnostics over remote areas such as the southern oceans, tropical forests and the Arctic, in situ observations will have to be complemented with remote-sensing measurements. Remote sensing offers the advantage of dense spatial coverage and frequent revisit. A key challenge is to bring remote sensing measurements to a level of long-term consistency and accuracy so that they can be efficiently combined in models to reduce uncertainties, in synergy with ground-based data. Bringing tight observational constraints on fossil fuel and land use change emissions will be the biggest challenge for deployment of a policy-relevant integrated carbon observation system. This will require in-situ and remotely sensed data at much higher resolution and density than currently achieved for natural fluxes, although over a small land area (cities, industrial sites, power plants), as well as the inclusion of fossil fuel CO2 proxy measurements such as radiocarbon in CO2 and carbon-fuel combustion tracers. Additionally, a policy relevant carbon monitoring system should also provide mechanisms for reconciling regional top-down (atmosphere-based) and bottom-up (surface-based) flux estimates across the range of spatial and temporal scales relevant to mitigation policies. The success of the system will rely on long-term commitments to monitoring, on improved international collaboration to fill gaps in the current observations, on sustained efforts to improve access to the different data streams and make databases inter-operable, and on the calibration of each component of the system to agreed-upon international scales.

Description: The net effect of aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing (DRF) is the balance between the scattering effect that reflects solar radiation back to space (cooling), and the absorption that decreases the reflected sunlight (warming). The amplitude of these two effects and their balance depends on the aerosol load, its absorptivity, the cloud fraction and the respective position of aerosol and cloud layers. In this study, we use the information provided by CALIOP (CALIPSO satellite) and MODIS (AQUA satellite) instruments as input data to a Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) and quantify the shortwave (SW) aerosol direct atmospheric forcing, over the South-East Atlantic. The combination of the passive and active measurements allows estimates of the horizontal and vertical distributions of the aerosol and cloud parameters. We use a parametrization of the Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) based on the satellite-derived Angstrom coefficient. The South East Atlantic is a particular region, where bright stratocumulus clouds are often topped by absorbing smoke particles. Results from radiative transfer simulations confirm the similar amplitude of the cooling effect, due to light scattering by the aerosols, and the warming effect, due to the absorption by the same particles. Over six years of satellite retrievals, from 2005 to 2010, the South-East Atlantic all-sky SW DRF is −0.03 W m−2, with a spatial standard deviation of 8.03 W m−2. In good agreement with previous estimates, statistics show that a cloud fraction larger than 0.5 is generally associated with positive all-sky DRF. In case of cloudy-sky and aerosol located only above the cloud top, a SSA larger than 0.91 and cloud optical thickness larger than 4 can be considered as threshold values, beyond which the resulting radiative forcing becomes positive.

Description: Water stable isotopes provide integrated tracers of the atmospheric water cycle, affected by changes in air mass origin, non-convective and convective processes and continental recycling. Novel remote sensing and in situ measuring techniques have recently offered opportunities for monitoring atmospheric water vapour isotopic composition. Recently developed infrared laser spectrometers allow for continuous in situ measurements of surface water vapour δDv and δ18Ov. So far, very few intercomparison of measurements conducted using different techniques have been achieved at a given location, due to difficulties intrinsic to the comparison of integrated with local measurements. Nudged simulations conducted with high resolution isotopically enabled GCMs provide a consistent framework for comparison with the different types of observations. Here, we compare simulations conducted with the ECHAM5-wiso model with three types of water vapour isotopic data obtained during summer 2012 at the forest site of Kourovka, Western Siberia: daily mean GOSAT δDv soundings, hourly ground-based FTIR total atmospheric columnar δDv amounts, and in situ hourly Picarro δDv measurements. There is an excellent correlation between observed and predicted δDv at surface while the comparison between water column values derived from the model compares well with FTIR and GOSAT estimates. This research was supported by the grant of Russian government under the contract 11.G34.31.0064.

Description: Spaceborne reflectance measurements from the POLDER instrument are used to study the specific directional signature close to the backscatter direction. The data analysis makes it possible to derive the extinction to backscatter ratio (EBR) which is the invert of the scattering phase function for an angle of 180° and is needed for a quantitative interpretation of lidar observations (active measurements). In addition, the multi-directional measurements are used to quantify the scattering phase function variations close to backscatter, which also provide some indication of the aerosol particle size and shape. The spatial distributions of both parameters show consistent patterns that are consistent with the aerosol type distributions. Pollution aerosols have an EBR close to 70, desert dust values are on the order of 50, while marine aerosol's is close to 25. The scattering phase function shows an increase with the scattering angle close to backscatter. The relative increase ∂lnP/∂ γ is close to 0.01 for dust and pollution type aerosols and 0.06 for marine type aerosols. These values are consistent with those retrieved from Mie simulations.

Description: Atmospheric concentration measurements are used to adjust the daily to monthly budget of CO2 emissions from the AirParif inventory of the Paris agglomeration. We use 5 atmospheric monitoring sites including one at the top of the Eiffel tower. The atmospheric inversion is based on a Bayesian approach, and relies on an atmospheric transport model with a spatial resolution of 2 km with boundary conditions from a global coarse grid transport model. The inversion tool adjusts the CO2 fluxes (anthropogenic and biogenic) with a temporal resolution of 6 h, assuming temporal correlation of emissions uncertainties within the daily cycle and from day to day, while keeping the a priori spatial distribution from the emission inventory. The inversion significantly improves the agreement between measured and modelled concentrations. However, the amplitude of the atmospheric transport errors is often large compared to the CO2 gradients between the sites that are used to estimate the fluxes, in particular for the Eiffel tower station. In addition, we sometime observe large model-measurement differences upwind from the Paris agglomeration, which confirms the large and poorly constrained contribution from distant sources and sinks included in the prescribed CO2 boundary conditions These results suggest that (i) the Eiffel measurements at 300 m above ground cannot be used with the current system and (ii) the inversion shall rely on the measured upwind-downwind gradients rather than the raw mole fraction measurements. With such setup, realistic emissions are retrieved for two 30 day periods. Similar inversions over longer periods are necessary for a proper evaluation of the results.

Description: The Bayesian framework of CO2 flux inversions permits estimates of the retrieved flux uncertainties. Here, the reliability of these theoretical estimates is studied through a comparison against the misfits between the inverted fluxes and independent measurements of the CO2 Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) made by the eddy covariance technique at local (few hectares) scale. Regional inversions at 0.5° resolution are applied for the western European domain where ~ 50 eddy covariance sites are operated. These inversions are conducted for a 6-yr period (2002–2007). They use a mesoscale atmospheric transport model, a prior estimate of the NEE from a terrestrial ecosystem model and rely on the variational assimilation of in situ continuous measurements of CO2 atmospheric mole fractions. The misfits averaged over monthly periods and over the whole domain, are in good agreement with the theoretical uncertainties for prior (respectively inverted) NEE, with positive chi-square tests for the variance at the 2% (respectively 20%) significance levels, despite the scale mismatch and the independence between the prior (respectively inverted) NEE and the flux measurements. The theoretical uncertainty reduction for the monthly NEE at the measurement sites is 53% while the inversion actually decreases the standard deviation of the misfits by as much as 38%. These results build confidence in the NEE estimates at the European/monthly scales and in their theoretical uncertainty from the regional inverse modeling system. However, the uncertainties at the monthly (respectively annual) scale remain larger than the amplitude of the inter-annual variability of monthly (respectively annual) fluxes, so that there is a low confidence in the inter-annual variations. The uncertainties at the monthly scale are significantly smaller than the seasonal variations. The seasonal cycle of the inverted fluxes is thus reliable. In particular, the CO2 sink period over the European continent likely ends later than represented by the ecosystem model.

Description: The aerosol remote sensing from space has started in the 1980's using observations provided by geostationary satellites or by polar orbiting platforms not specifically designed for observing aerosols. As a result, the number of retrieved parameters was limited and retrievals in the visible restricted over ocean. Over land, because of the important surface contribution, the aerosol detection was performed in the UV (or in the dark blue) where most of the earth surfaces are dark enough but with overlap of multiple aerosols parameters, content, altitude and absorption. Instruments dedicated to aerosol monitoring are recently available and the POLDER instrument on board the PARASOL mission is one of them. By measuring the wavelength, angular and polarization properties of the radiance at the top of the atmosphere, in coordination with the other A-Train instruments, PARASOL can better quantify aerosol optical depths (AOD) and improve the derivation of the radiative and physical properties. The instrument, the inversion schemes and the list of aerosol parameters are described. Examples of retrieved aerosol parameters are provided as well as innovative approaches and further inversion techniques.

Description: In the context of raising greenhouse gas concentrations, and the potential feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle, there is an urgent need to monitor the exchanges of carbon between the atmosphere and both the ocean and the land surfaces. In the so-called top-down approach, the surface fluxes of CO2 are inverted from the observed spatial and temporal concentration gradients. The concentrations of CO2 are measured in-situ at a number of surface stations unevenly distributed over the Earth while several satellite missions may be used to provide a dense and better-distributed set of observations to complement this network. In this paper, we compare the ability of different CO2 concentration observing systems to constrain surface fluxes. The various systems are based on realistic scenarios of sampling and precision for satellite and in-situ measurements. It is shown that satellite measurements based on the differential absorption technique (such as those of SCIAMACHY, GOSAT or OCO) provide more information than the thermal infrared observations (such as those of AIRS or IASI). The OCO observations will provide significantly better information than those of GOSAT. A CO2 monitoring mission based on an active (lidar) technique could potentially provide an even better constraint. This constraint can also be realized with the very dense surface network that could be built with the same funding as that of the active satellite mission. Despite the large uncertainty reductions on the surface fluxes that may be expected from these various observing systems, these reductions are still insufficient to reach the highly demanding requirements for the monitoring of anthropogenic emissions of CO2 or the oceanic fluxes at a spatial scale smaller than that of oceanic basins. The scientific objective of these observing system should therefore focus on the fluxes linked to vegetation and land ecosystem dynamics.

Description: This study presents a synthetic model intercomparison to investigate the importance of transport model errors for estimating the sources and sinks of CO2 using satellite measurements. The experiments were designed for testing the potential performance of the proposed CO2 lidar A-SCOPE, but also apply to other space borne missions that monitor total column CO2. The participating transport models IFS, LMDZ, TM3, and TM5 were run in forward and inverse mode using common CO2 fluxes and initial concentrations. Simulated column averaged CO2 (xCO2) mixing ratios vary between the models by σ=0.5 ppm over the continents and σ=0.27 ppm over sea. A variable, but overall quite encouraging agreement is found in comparison with FTS measurements at Park Falls, Darwin, Spitsbergen, and Bremen. Despite the fact that the models agree on average on the sub-ppm level, these modest differences nevertheless lead to significant discrepancies in the inverted fluxes of 0.1 Pg C/yr per 106 km2 over land and 0.03 Pg C/yr per 106 km2 over the ocean. These transport model induced flux uncertainties exceed the target requirement that was formulated for the A-SCOPE mission of 0.02 Pg C/yr per 106 km2, and could also limit the overall performance of other CO2 missions such as GOSAT. It is concluded that to make use of the remote sensing technique for quantifying the sources and sinks of CO2 not only requires highly accurate satellite instruments, but also puts stringent requirements on the performance of atmospheric transport models. Further development of these models should receive high priority.