ALBERT

Beschreibung: We use multiple synthetic mitigation sea-level scenarios, together with a non-mitigation sea-level scenario from the Warming Acidification and Sea-level Projector model. We find sea-level rise continues to accelerate post 2100 for all but the most aggressive mitigation scenarios indicative of 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment modelling framework, we project land and population exposed in the 1 in 100 year coastal flood plain under sea-level rise and population change. In 2000, the flood plain is estimated at 540 x10 3 km 2 . By 2100, under the mitigation scenarios, it ranges between 610 x10 3 km 2 and 640 x10 3 km 2 [580 x10 3 km 2 and 700 x10 3 km 2 for the 5 th and 95 th percentiles]. Thus differences between the mitigation scenarios are small in 2100. However, in 2300, flood plains are projected to increase to between 700 x10 3 km 2 and 960 x10 3 km 2 in 2300 [610 x10 3 km 2 and 1,290 x10 3 km 2 ] for the mitigation scenarios, but 1,630 x10 3 km 2 [1,190 x10 3 km 2 and 2,220 x10 3 km 2 ] for the non-mitigation scenario. The proportion of global population exposed to sea-level rise in 2300 is projected to be between 1.5% and 5.4% [1.2% to 7.6%] (assuming no population growth after 2100) for the aggressive mitigation and the non-mitigation scenario, respectively. Hence over centennial timescales there are significant benefits to climate change mitigation and temperature stabilization. However, sea-levels will continue to rise albeit at lower rates. Thus potential impacts will keep increasing necessitating adaptation to existing coastal infrastructure and the careful planning of new coastal developments.