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  • 1
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    Representing the function and sensitivity of coastal interfaces in earth system models (2020)
    Nature Research
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    Publikationsdatum: 2022-05-25
    Beschreibung: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ward, N. D., Megonigal, J. P., Bond-Lamberty, B., Bailey, V. L., Butman, D., Canuel, E. A., Diefenderfer, H., Ganju, N. K., Goni, M. A., Graham, E. B., Hopkinson, C. S., Khangaonkar, T., Langley, J. A., McDowell, N. G., Myers-Pigg, A. N., Neumann, R. B., Osburn, C. L., Price, R. M., Rowland, J., Sengupta, A., Simard, M., Thornton, P. E., Tzortziou, M., Vargas, R., Weisenhorn, P. B., & Windham-Myers, L. Representing the function and sensitivity of coastal interfaces in earth system models. Nature Communications, 11(1), (2020): 2458, doi:10.1038/s41467-020-16236-2.
    Beschreibung: Between the land and ocean, diverse coastal ecosystems transform, store, and transport material. Across these interfaces, the dynamic exchange of energy and matter is driven by hydrological and hydrodynamic processes such as river and groundwater discharge, tides, waves, and storms. These dynamics regulate ecosystem functions and Earth’s climate, yet global models lack representation of coastal processes and related feedbacks, impeding their predictions of coastal and global responses to change. Here, we assess existing coastal monitoring networks and regional models, existing challenges in these efforts, and recommend a path towards development of global models that more robustly reflect the coastal interface.
    Beschreibung: Funding for this work was provided by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Laboratory Directed Research & Development (LDRD) as part of the Predicting Ecosystem Resilience through Multiscale Integrative Science (PREMIS) Initiative. PNNL is operated by Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830. Additional support to J.P.M. was provided by the NSF-LTREB program (DEB-0950080, DEB-1457100, DEB-1557009), DOE-TES Program (DE-SC0008339), and the Smithsonian Institution. This manuscript was motivated by discussions held by co-authors during a three-day workshop at PNNL in Richland, WA: The System for Terrestrial Aquatic Research (STAR) Workshop: Terrestrial-Aquatic Research in Coastal Systems. The authors thank PNNL artist Nathan Johnson for preparing the figures in this manuscript and Terry Clark, Dr. Charlette Geffen, and Dr. Nancy Hess for their aid in organizing the STAR workshop. The authors thank all workshop participants not listed as authors for their valuable insight: Lihini Aluwihare (contributed to biogeochemistry discussions and development of concept for Fig. 3), Gautam Bisht (contributed to modeling discussion), Emmett Duffy (contributed to observational network discussions), Yilin Fang (contributed to modeling discussion), Jeremy Jones (contributed to biogeochemistry discussions), Roser Matamala (contributed to biogeochemistry discussions), James Morris (contributed to biogeochemistry discussions), Robert Twilley (contributed to biogeochemistry discussions), and Jesse Vance (contributed to observational network discussions). A full report on the workshop discussions can be found at https://www.pnnl.gov/publications/star-workshop-terrestrial-aquatic-research-coastal-systems.
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  • 2
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    Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks : results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (2009)
    Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
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    Publikationsdatum: 2022-05-25
    Beschreibung: © 2009 The Authors. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 6 (2009): 2099-2120, doi:10.5194/bg-6-2099-2009
    Beschreibung: Inclusion of fundamental ecological interactions between carbon and nitrogen cycles in the land component of an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) leads to decreased carbon uptake associated with CO2 fertilization, and increased carbon uptake associated with warming of the climate system. The balance of these two opposing effects is to reduce the fraction of anthropogenic CO2 predicted to be sequestered in land ecosystems. The primary mechanism responsible for increased land carbon storage under radiatively forced climate change is shown to be fertilization of plant growth by increased mineralization of nitrogen directly associated with increased decomposition of soil organic matter under a warming climate, which in this particular model results in a negative gain for the climate-carbon feedback. Estimates for the land and ocean sink fractions of recent anthropogenic emissions are individually within the range of observational estimates, but the combined land plus ocean sink fractions produce an airborne fraction which is too high compared to observations. This bias is likely due in part to an underestimation of the ocean sink fraction. Our results show a significant growth in the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the coming century, attributable in part to a steady decline in the ocean sink fraction. Comparison to experimental studies on the fate of radio-labeled nitrogen tracers in temperate forests indicates that the model representation of competition between plants and microbes for new mineral nitrogen resources is reasonable. Our results suggest a weaker dependence of net land carbon flux on soil moisture changes in tropical regions, and a stronger positive growth response to warming in those regions, than predicted by a similar AOGCM implemented without land carbon-nitrogen interactions. We expect that the between-model uncertainty in predictions of future atmospheric CO2 concentration and associated anthropogenic climate change will be reduced as additional climate models introduce carbon-nitrogen cycle interactions in their land components.
    Beschreibung: This work was supported in part by NASA Earth Science Enterprise, Terrestrial Ecology Program, grant #W19,953 to P. E. Thornton. Support was provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) through the NCAR Community Climate System Modeling program, and through the NCAR Biogeosciences program. Additional support was provided by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. I. Fung, S. Doney, N. Mahowald, and J. Randerson acknowledge support from National Science Foundation, Atmospheric Sciences Division, through the Carbon and Water Initiative.
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  • 3
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    Observed 20th century desert dust variability : impact on climate and biogeochemistry (2011)
    Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
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    Publikationsdatum: 2022-05-25
    Beschreibung: © The Authors, 2010. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. The definitive version was published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 10 (2010): 10875-10893, doi:10.5194/acp-10-10875-2010.
    Beschreibung: Desert dust perturbs climate by directly and indirectly interacting with incoming solar and outgoing long wave radiation, thereby changing precipitation and temperature, in addition to modifying ocean and land biogeochemistry. While we know that desert dust is sensitive to perturbations in climate and human land use, previous studies have been unable to determine whether humans were increasing or decreasing desert dust in the global average. Here we present observational estimates of desert dust based on paleodata proxies showing a doubling of desert dust during the 20th century over much, but not all the globe. Large uncertainties remain in estimates of desert dust variability over 20th century due to limited data. Using these observational estimates of desert dust change in combination with ocean, atmosphere and land models, we calculate the net radiative effect of these observed changes (top of atmosphere) over the 20th century to be −0.14 ± 0.11 W/m2 (1990–1999 vs. 1905–1914). The estimated radiative change due to dust is especially strong between the heavily loaded 1980–1989 and the less heavily loaded 1955–1964 time periods (−0.57 ± 0.46 W/m2), which model simulations suggest may have reduced the rate of temperature increase between these time periods by 0.11 °C. Model simulations also indicate strong regional shifts in precipitation and temperature from desert dust changes, causing 6 ppm (12 PgC) reduction in model carbon uptake by the terrestrial biosphere over the 20th century. Desert dust carries iron, an important micronutrient for ocean biogeochemistry that can modulate ocean carbon storage; here we show that dust deposition trends increase ocean productivity by an estimated 6% over the 20th century, drawing down an additional 4 ppm (8 PgC) of carbon dioxide into the oceans. Thus, perturbations to desert dust over the 20th century inferred from observations are potentially important for climate and biogeochemistry, and our understanding of these changes and their impacts should continue to be refined.
    Beschreibung: We would like to acknowledge NASA grants NNG06G127G and NNX07AL80G, NSF grants NSF-0832782, 0932946, 0745961 and OPP-0538427, and the UK Natural Environment Research Council.
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  • 4
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    Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model (2011)
    Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
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    Publikationsdatum: 2022-05-25
    Beschreibung: © The Authors, 2011. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 8 (2011): 387-414, doi:10.5194/bg-8-387-2011.
    Beschreibung: Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries) and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climate feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.
    Beschreibung: This work was done under the auspices of NASA NNG06G127G, NSF grants 0748369, 0932946, 0745961 and 0832782. The work of C. J. was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101).
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  • 5
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    Atmospheric carbon dioxide variability in the Community Earth System Model : evaluation and transient dynamics during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries (2013)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publikationsdatum: 2022-05-25
    Beschreibung: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 26 (2013): 4447–4475, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00589.1.
    Beschreibung: Changes in atmospheric CO2 variability during the twenty-first century may provide insight about ecosystem responses to climate change and have implications for the design of carbon monitoring programs. This paper describes changes in the three-dimensional structure of atmospheric CO2 for several representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) using the Community Earth System Model–Biogeochemistry (CESM1-BGC). CO2 simulated for the historical period was first compared to surface, aircraft, and column observations. In a second step, the evolution of spatial and temporal gradients during the twenty-first century was examined. The mean annual cycle in atmospheric CO2 was underestimated for the historical period throughout the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting that the growing season net flux in the Community Land Model (the land component of CESM) was too weak. Consistent with weak summer drawdown in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, simulated CO2 showed correspondingly weak north–south and vertical gradients during the summer. In the simulations of the twenty-first century, CESM predicted increases in the mean annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 and larger horizontal gradients. Not only did the mean north–south gradient increase due to fossil fuel emissions, but east–west contrasts in CO2 also strengthened because of changing patterns in fossil fuel emissions and terrestrial carbon exchange. In the RCP8.5 simulation, where CO2 increased to 1150 ppm by 2100, the CESM predicted increases in interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes of up to 60% relative to present variability for time series filtered with a 2–10-yr bandpass. Such an increase in variability may impact detection of changing surface fluxes from atmospheric observations.
    Beschreibung: The CESM project is supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy. Computing resources were provided by the Climate Simulation Laboratory at NCAR’s Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), sponsored by the National Science Foundation and other agencies. G.K.A. acknowledges support of a NOAA Climate and Global Change postdoctoral fellowship. J.T.R., N.M.M., S.C.D., K.L., and J.K.M. acknowledge support of Collaborative Research: Improved Regional and Decadal Predictions of the Carbon Cycle (NSF AGS-1048827, AGS-1021776,AGS-1048890). TheHIPPO Programwas supported byNSF GrantsATM-0628575,ATM-0628519, and ATM-0628388 to Harvard University, University of California (San Diego), and by University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, University of Colorado/ CIRES, by the NCAR and by the NOAAEarth System Research Laboratory. Sunyoung Park, Greg Santoni, Eric Kort, and Jasna Pittman collected data during HIPPO. The ACME project was supported by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC02- 05CH11231 as part of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM), the ARM Aerial Facility, and the Terrestrial EcosystemScience Program. TCCON measurements at Eureka were made by the Canadian Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (CANDAC) with additional support from the Canadian Space Agency. The Lauder TCCON program was funded by the New Zealand Foundation for Research Science and Technology contracts CO1X0204, CO1X0703, and CO1X0406. Measurements at Darwin andWollongong were supported by Australian Research Council Grants DP0879468 and DP110103118 and were undertaken by David Griffith, Nicholas Deutscher, and Ronald Macatangay. We thank Pauli Heikkinen, Petteri Ahonen, and Esko Kyr€o of the Finnish Meteorological Institute for contributing the Sodankyl€a TCCON data. Measurements at Park Falls, Lamont, and Pasadena were supported byNASAGrant NNX11AG01G and the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory Program. Data at these sites were obtained by Geoff Toon, Jean- Francois Blavier, Coleen Roehl, and Debra Wunch.
    Beschreibung: 2014-01-01
    Schlagwort(e): Carbon cycle ; Carbon dioxide ; Aircraft observations ; In situ atmospheric observations ; Remote sensing ; Tracers
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  • 6
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    Preindustrial-control and twentieth-century carbon cycle experiments with the Earth System Model CESM1(BGC) (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publikationsdatum: 2022-05-26
    Beschreibung: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 8981–9005, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00565.1.
    Beschreibung: Version 1 of the Community Earth System Model, in the configuration where its full carbon cycle is enabled, is introduced and documented. In this configuration, the terrestrial biogeochemical model, which includes carbon–nitrogen dynamics and is present in earlier model versions, is coupled to an ocean biogeochemical model and atmospheric CO2 tracers. The authors provide a description of the model, detail how preindustrial-control and twentieth-century experiments were initialized and forced, and examine the behavior of the carbon cycle in those experiments. They examine how sea- and land-to-air CO2 fluxes contribute to the increase of atmospheric CO2 in the twentieth century, analyze how atmospheric CO2 and its surface fluxes vary on interannual time scales, including how they respond to ENSO, and describe the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 and its surface fluxes. While the model broadly reproduces observed aspects of the carbon cycle, there are several notable biases, including having too large of an increase in atmospheric CO2 over the twentieth century and too small of a seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 in the Northern Hemisphere. The biases are related to a weak response of the carbon cycle to climatic variations on interannual and seasonal time scales and to twentieth-century anthropogenic forcings, including rising CO2, land-use change, and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen.
    Beschreibung: The CESM project is supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy. Computing resources were provided by the Climate Simulation Laboratory at NCAR’s Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), sponsored by the National Science Foundation and other agencies. This research was enabled by CISL compute and storage resources. SCD acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (NSF AGS-1048827). This research is supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed by UT-BATTELLE for DOE under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725.
    Beschreibung: 2015-06-15
    Schlagwort(e): Carbon cycle ; Climate models ; Coupled models ; Model evaluation/performance
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  • 7
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    Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States (2020)
    National Academy of Sciences
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    Publikationsdatum: 2020-02-10
    Beschreibung: Urbanization has caused environmental changes, such as urban heat islands (UHIs), that affect terrestrial ecosystems. However, how and to what extent urbanization affects plant phenology remains relatively unexplored. Here, we investigated the changes in the satellite-derived start of season (SOS) and the covariation between SOS and temperature (RT) in 85 large cities across the conterminous United States for the period 2001–2014. We found that 1) the SOS came significantly earlier (6.1 ± 6.3 d) in 74 cities and RT was significantly weaker (0.03 ± 0.07) in 43 cities when compared with their surrounding rural areas (P 〈 0.05); 2) the decreased magnitude in RT mainly occurred in cities in relatively cold regions with an annual mean temperature
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Digitale ISSN: 1091-6490
    Thema: Biologie , Medizin , Allgemeine Naturwissenschaft
    Publiziert von National Academy of Sciences
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  • 8
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    Mapping local and global variability in plant trait distributions (2017)
    National Academy of Sciences
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    Publikationsdatum: 2017-12-01
    Beschreibung: Our ability to understand and predict the response of ecosystems to a changing environment depends on quantifying vegetation functional diversity. However, representing this diversity at the global scale is challenging. Typically, in Earth system models, characterization of plant diversity has been limited to grouping related species into plant functional types (PFTs), with all trait variation in a PFT collapsed into a single mean value that is applied globally. Using the largest global plant trait database and state of the art Bayesian modeling, we created fine-grained global maps of plant trait distributions that can be applied to Earth system models. Focusing on a set of plant traits closely coupled to photosynthesis and foliar respiration—specific leaf area (SLA) and dry mass-based concentrations of leaf nitrogen (Nm) and phosphorus (Pm), we characterize how traits vary within and among over 50,000 ∼50×50-km cells across the entire vegetated land surface. We do this in several ways—without defining the PFT of each grid cell and using 4 or 14 PFTs; each model’s predictions are evaluated against out-of-sample data. This endeavor advances prior trait mapping by generating global maps that preserve variability across scales by using modern Bayesian spatial statistical modeling in combination with a database over three times larger than that in previous analyses. Our maps reveal that the most diverse grid cells possess trait variability close to the range of global PFT means.
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Digitale ISSN: 1091-6490
    Thema: Biologie , Medizin , Allgemeine Naturwissenschaft
    Publiziert von National Academy of Sciences
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  • 9
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    Representing the function and sensitivity of coastal interfaces in Earth system models (2020)
    Springer Nature
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    Publikationsdatum: 2020-05-18
    Digitale ISSN: 2041-1723
    Thema: Biologie , Chemie und Pharmazie , Allgemeine Naturwissenschaft , Physik
    Publiziert von Springer Nature
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    Quantifying the drivers and predictability of seasonal changes in African fire (2020)
    Springer Nature
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    Publikationsdatum: 2020-06-09
    Digitale ISSN: 2041-1723
    Thema: Biologie , Chemie und Pharmazie , Allgemeine Naturwissenschaft , Physik
    Publiziert von Springer Nature
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