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  • 1
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Exposure duration is an important component in determining long-term dose rates associated with exposure to environmental contaminants. Surveys of exposed populations collect information on individuals' past behaviors, including the durations of a behavior up to the time of the survey. This paper presents an empirical approach for determining the distribution of total durations that is consistent with the distribution past durations obtained from surveys. This approach is appropriate where the rates of beginning and ending a behavior are relatively constant over time. The approach allows the incorporation of information on the distribution of age in a population into the determination of the distribution of durations. The paper also explores the impact of “longevity” bias on survey data. A case study of the application of this approach to two angler populations is also provided. The results of the case study have characteristics similar to the results reported by Israeli and Nelson (Risk Anal. 12, 65-72 (1992)) from their analytical model of residential duration. Specifically, the average period of time for the total duration in the entire population is shorter than the average period of time reported for historical duration in the surveyed individuals.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
  • 3
    ISSN: 1520-4995
    Quelle: ACS Legacy Archives
    Thema: Biologie , Chemie und Pharmazie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Determining the probabilistic limits for the uncertainty factors used in the derivation of the Reference Dose (RfD) is an important step toward the goal of characterizing the risk of noncarcinogenic effects from exposure to environmental pollutants. If uncertainty factors are seen, individually, as “upper bounds” on the dose-scaling factor for sources of uncertainty, then determining comparable upper bounds for combinations of uncertainty factors can be accomplished by treating uncertainty factors as distributions, which can be combined by probabilistic techniques. This paper presents a conceptual approach to probabilistic uncertainty factors based on the definition and use of RfDs by the US. EPA. The approach does not attempt to distinguish one uncertainty factor from another based on empirical data or biological mechanisms but rather uses a simple displaced lognormal distribution as a generic representation of all uncertainty factors. Monte Carlo analyses show that the upper bounds for combinations of this distribution can vary by factors of two to four when compared to the fixed-value uncertainty factor approach. The probabilistic approach is demonstrated in the comparison of Hazard Quotients based on RfDs with differing number of uncertainty factors.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 5
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: This paper presents an approach for characterizing the probability of adverse effects occurring in a population exposed to dose rates in excess of the Reference Dose (RfD). The approach uses a linear threshold (hockey stick) model of response and is based on the current system of uncertainty factors used in setting RfDs. The approach requires generally available toxicological estimates such as No-Observed-Adverse-Effect Levels (NOAELs) or Benchmark Doses and doses at which adverse effects are observed in 50% of the test animals (ED50s). In this approach, Monte Carlo analysis is used to characterize the uncertainty in the dose response slope based on the range and magnitude of the key sources of uncertainty in setting protective doses. The method does not require information on the shape of the dose response curve for specific chemicals, but is amenable to the inclusion of such data. The approach is applied to four compounds to produce estimates of response rates for dose rates greater than the RfD
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 6
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Although there has been nearly complete agreement in the scientific community that Monte Carlo techniques represent a significant improvement in the exposure assessment process, virtually all state and federal risk assessments still rely on the traditional point estimate approach. One of the rate-determining steps to a timely implementation of Monte Carlo techniques to regulatory decision making is the development of “standard” data distributions that are considered applicable to any setting. For many exposure variables, there is no need to wait any longer to adopt Monte Carlo techniques into regulatory policy since there is a wealth of data from which a robust distribution can be developed and ample evidence to indicate that the variable is not significantly influenced by site-specific conditions. In this paper, we propose several distributions that can be considered standard and customary for most settings. Age-specific distributions for soil ingestion rates, inhalation rates, body weights, skin surface area, tapwater and fish consumption, residential occupancy and occupational tenure, and soil-on-skin adherence were developed. For each distribution offered in this paper, we discuss the adequacy of the database, derivation of the distribution, and applicability of the distribution to various settings and conditions.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 7
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 14 (1994), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Health risk assessments have become so widely accepted in the United States that their conclusions are a major factor in many environmental decisions. Although the risk assessment paradigm is 10 years old, the basic risk assessment process has been used by certain regulatory agencies for nearly 40 years. Each of the four components of the paradigm has undergone significant refinements, particularly during the last 5 years. A recent step in the development of the exposure assessment component can be found in the 1992 EPA Guidelines for Exposure Assessment. Rather than assuming worst-case or hypothetical maximum exposures, these guidelines are designed to lead to an accurate characterization, making use of a number of scientific advances. Many exposure parameters have become better defined, and more sensitive techniques now exist for measuring concentrations of contaminants in the environnment. Statistical procedures for characterizing variability, using Monte Carlo or similar approaches, eliminate the need to select point estimates for all individual exposure parameters. These probabilistic models can more accurately characterize the full range of exposures that may potentially be encountered by a given population at a particular site, reducing the need to select highly conservative values to account for this form of uncertainty in the exposure estimate. Lastly, our awareness of the uncertainties in the exposure assessment as well as our knowledge as to how best to characterize them will almost certainly provide evaluations that will be more credible and, therein, more useful to risk managers. If these refinements are incorporated into future exposure assessments, it is likely that our resources will be devoted to problems that, when resolved, will yield the largest improvement in public health.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 8
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Over the last 10 years, a number of researchers have used Monte Carlo analysts to investigate the variation in long-term average dose rates in exposed populations and the uncertainty in estimates of long-term average dose rates for specific individuals. In general, these researchers have modeled long-term exposures using simple dose rate equations which assume that individuals are exposed to a single environmental concentration at a constant rate over a specified exposure duration. This paper presents an alternative approach for modeling long-term average exposures called microexposure event modeling which addresses a number of shortcomings in traditional dose rate equations. The paper discusses the limitations of the traditional dose rate equation, presents a description of the methodology, and illustrates advantages of the approach with a case study.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 9
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Indirect exposures to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and other toxic materials released in incinerator emissions have been identified as a significant concern for human health. As a result, regulatory agencies and researchers have developed specific approaches for evaluating exposures from indirect pathways. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of the effect of uncertainty and variation in exposure parameters on the resulting estimates of TCDD dose rates received by individuals indirectly exposed to incinerator emissions through the consumption of home-grown beef. The assessment uses a nested Monte Carlo model that separately characterizes uncertainty and variation in dose rate estimates. Uncertainty resulting from limited data on the fate and transport of TCDD are evaluated, and variations in estimated dose rates in the exposed population that result from location-specific parameters and individuals’behaviors are characterized. The analysis indicates that lifetime average daily dose rates for individuals living within 10 km of a hypothetical incinerator range over three orders of magnitude. In contrast, the uncertainty in the dose rate distribution appears to vary by less than one order of magnitude, based on the sources of uncertainty included in this analysis. Current guidance for predicting exposures from indirect exposure pathways was found to overestimate the intakes for typical and high-end individuals.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
  • 10
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 12 (1992), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: This paper presents a method of estimating long-term exposures to point source emissions. The method consists of a Monte Carlo exposure model (PSEM or Point Source Exposure Model) that combines data on population mobility and mortality with information on daily activity patterns. The approach behind the model can be applied to a wide variety of exposure scenarios. In this paper, PSEM is used to characterize the range and distribution of lifetime equivalent doses received by inhalation of air contaminated by the emissions of a point source. The output of the model provides quantitative information on the dose, age, and gender of highly exposed individuals. The model is then used in an example risk assessment. Finally, future uses of the model's approach are discussed.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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