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  • 1
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    The Future of Atmospheric Oxygen (2020)
    Cham :Springer International Publishing :
    Details
    Schlagwort(e): Physical geography. ; Atmospheric science. ; Environmental monitoring. ; Environmental chemistry. ; Pollution. ; System theory. ; Earth System Sciences. ; Atmospheric Science. ; Environmental Monitoring. ; Environmental Chemistry. ; Pollution. ; Complex Systems.
    Beschreibung / Inhaltsverzeichnis: 1. Introduction -- 2. Oxygen in the past -- 3. Oxygen at present -- 4. Oxygen in future -- 5. Solutions? -- 6. Questions.
    Kurzfassung: This book investigates various aspects of the phenomenon of atmospheric oxygen depletion, and summarizes our current knowledge of atmospheric oxygen. The authors address the currently available records indicating that atmospheric oxygen is undergoing nonlinear decline. The consensus in the research community is that the main reason for this decline is the combustion of fossil fuels (which is growing nonlinearly). However, the short length of the currently available records, alongside the technological and social uncertainties that may risk speed up oxygen depletion, raise questions about the time scale of the decline, in particular, when oxygen depletion may cause physiological impact on humans and animals. The authors analyze this uncertainty to postulate the near term impact of depleted atmospheric oxygen, and perform multidisciplinary complex modelling of oxygen with long-term horizon estimations.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    Seiten: IX, 49 p. 18 illus., 13 illus. in color. , online resource.
    Ausgabe: 1st ed. 2020.
    ISBN: 9783030436650
    Serie: SpringerBriefs in Environmental Science,
    URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-43665-0
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-43665-0
    DDC: 550
    Sprache: Englisch
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
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    Tipping point analysis of atmospheric oxygen concentration (2015)
    American Institute of Physics
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2015-03-01
    Print ISSN: 1054-1500
    Digitale ISSN: 1089-7682
    Thema: Physik
    Publiziert von American Institute of Physics
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
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    Resonance induced by repulsive interactions in a model of globally coupled bistable systems (2010)
    American Physical Society
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    Publikationsdatum: 2010-04-09
    Print ISSN: 1539-3755
    Digitale ISSN: 1550-2376
    Thema: Physik
    Publiziert von American Physical Society
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
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    Long-term memory in earthquakes and the distribution of interoccurrence times (2008)
    Institute of Physics
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2008-02-22
    Print ISSN: 0295-5075
    Digitale ISSN: 1286-4854
    Thema: Physik
    Publiziert von Institute of Physics
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 5
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    Machine learning for BMS analysis and optimisation (2020)
    Institute of Physics
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-10-07
    Digitale ISSN: 2631-8695
    Thema: Technik allgemein
    Publiziert von Institute of Physics
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 6
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    A recent tipping point in the Arctic sea-ice cover: abrupt and persistent increase in the seasonal cycle since 2007 (2013)
    Copernicus
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    Publikationsdatum: 2013-02-12
    Beschreibung: There is ongoing debate over whether Arctic sea ice has already passed a "tipping point", or whether it will do so in the future. Several recent studies argue that the loss of summer sea ice does not involve an irreversible bifurcation, because it is highly reversible in models. However, a broader definition of a "tipping point" also includes other abrupt, non-linear changes that are neither bifurcations nor necessarily irreversible. Examination of satellite data for Arctic sea-ice area reveals an abrupt increase in the amplitude of seasonal variability in 2007 that has persisted since then. We identified this abrupt transition using recently developed methods that can detect multi-modality in time-series data and sometimes forewarn of bifurcations. When removing the mean seasonal cycle (up to 2008) from the satellite data, the residual sea-ice fluctuations switch from uni-modal to multi-modal behaviour around 2007. We originally interpreted this as a bifurcation in which a new lower ice cover attractor appears in deseasonalised fluctuations and is sampled in every summer–autumn from 2007 onwards. However, this interpretation is clearly sensitive to how the seasonal cycle is removed from the raw data, and to the presence of continental land masses restricting winter–spring ice fluctuations. Furthermore, there was no robust early warning signal of critical slowing down prior to the hypothesized bifurcation. Early warning indicators do however show destabilization of the summer–autumn sea-ice cover since 2007. Thus, the bifurcation hypothesis lacks consistent support, but there was an abrupt and persistent increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea-ice cover in 2007, which we describe as a (non-bifurcation) "tipping point". Our statistical methods detect this "tipping point" and its time of onset. We discuss potential geophysical mechanisms behind it, which should be the subject of further work with process-based models.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0416
    Digitale ISSN: 1994-0424
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Publiziert von Copernicus im Namen von European Geosciences Union.
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 7
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    A recent bifurcation in Arctic sea-ice cover (2012)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2012-07-18
    Beschreibung: There is ongoing debate over whether Arctic sea-ice has already passed a "tipping point", or whether it will do so in future, with several recent studies arguing that the loss of summer sea ice does not involve a bifurcation because it is highly reversible in models. Recently developed methods can detect and sometimes forewarn of bifurcations in time-series data, hence we applied them to satellite data for Arctic sea-ice cover. Here we show that a new low ice cover state has appeared from 2007 onwards, which is distinct from the normal state of seasonal sea ice variation, suggesting a bifurcation has occurred from one attractor to two. There was no robust early warning signal of critical slowing down prior to this bifurcation, consistent with it representing the appearance of a new ice cover state rather than the loss of stability of the existing state. The new low ice cover state has been sampled predominantly in summer-autumn and seasonal forcing combined with internal climate variability are likely responsible for triggering recent transitions between the two ice cover states. However, all early warning indicators show destabilization of the summer-autumn sea-ice since 2007. This suggests the new low ice cover state may be a transient feature and further abrupt changes in summer-autumn Arctic sea-ice cover could lie ahead; either reversion to the normal state or a yet larger ice loss.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0432
    Digitale ISSN: 1994-0440
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Publiziert von Copernicus im Namen von European Geosciences Union.
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 8
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    Climate bifurcation during the last deglaciation? (2012)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2012-07-09
    Beschreibung: There were two abrupt warming events during the last deglaciation, at the start of the Bølling-Allerød and at the end of the Younger Dryas, but their underlying dynamics are unclear. Some abrupt climate changes may involve gradual forcing past a bifurcation point, in which a prevailing climate state loses its stability and the climate tips into an alternative state, providing an early warning signal in the form of slowing responses to perturbations, which may be accompanied by increasing variability. Alternatively, short-term stochastic variability in the climate system can trigger abrupt climate changes, without early warning. Previous work has found signals consistent with slowing down during the last deglaciation as a whole, and during the Younger Dryas, but with conflicting results in the run-up to the Bølling-Allerød. Based on this, we hypothesise that a bifurcation point was approached at the end of the Younger Dryas, in which the cold climate state, with weak Atlantic overturning circulation, lost its stability, and the climate tipped irreversibly into a warm interglacial state. To test the bifurcation hypothesis, we analysed two different climate proxies in three Greenland ice cores, from the Last Glacial Maximum to the end of the Younger Dryas. Prior to the Bølling warming, there was a robust increase in climate variability but no consistent slowing down signal, suggesting this abrupt change was probably triggered by a stochastic fluctuation. The transition to the warm Bølling-Allerød state was accompanied by a slowing down in climate dynamics and an increase in climate variability. We suggest that the Bølling warming excited an internal mode of variability in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength, causing multi-centennial climate fluctuations. However, the return to the Younger Dryas cold state increased climate stability. We find no consistent evidence for slowing down during the Younger Dryas, or in a longer spliced record of the cold climate state before and after the Bølling-Allerød. Therefore, the end of the Younger Dryas may also have been triggered by a stochastic perturbation.
    Print ISSN: 1814-9324
    Digitale ISSN: 1814-9332
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie
    Publiziert von Copernicus im Namen von European Geosciences Union.
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 9
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    Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr (2009)
    Copernicus
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    Publikationsdatum: 2009-09-30
    Beschreibung: We develop and apply a new statistical method of potential analysis for detecting the number of states of a geophysical system, from its recorded time series. Estimation of the degree of a polynomial potential allows us to derive the number of potential wells in a system. The method correctly detects changes in the number of wells in artificial data. In ice-core proxy records of Greenland paleotemperature, a reduction in the number of climate states from two to one is detected sometime prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), 23–19 kyr BP. This bifurcation can be interpreted as loss of stability of the warm interstadial state of the Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In data spanning the last glacial termination, up to four climate states are detected, plausibly representing the LGM, Bolling-Allerod, Younger Dryas, and the Holocene. The proposed method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical time series exhibiting bifurcations.
    Print ISSN: 1814-9340
    Digitale ISSN: 1814-9359
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie
    Publiziert von Copernicus im Namen von European Geosciences Union.
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 10
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    Climate bifurcation during the last deglaciation (2012)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2012-01-12
    Beschreibung: The last deglaciation was characterised by two abrupt warming events, at the start of the Bølling-Allerød and at the end of the Younger Dryas, but their underlying causes are unclear. Some abrupt climate changes may involve gradual forcing past a bifurcation point, in which a prevailing climate state loses its stability and the climate tips into an alternative state, providing an early warning signal in the form of slowing responses to perturbations. However, the abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events during the last ice age were probably triggered by stochastic fluctuations without bifurcation or early warning, and whether the onset of the Bølling-Allerød (DO event 1) was preceded by slowing down or not is debated. Here we show that the interval from the Last Glacial Maximum to the end of the Younger Dryas, as recorded in three Greenland ice cores with two different climate proxies, was accompanied by a robust slowing down in climate dynamics and an increase in climate variability, consistent with approaching bifurcation. Prior to the Bølling warming there was a robust increase in climate variability but no consistent slowing down signal, suggesting this abrupt change was probably triggered by a stochastic fluctuation. The Bølling warming marked a distinct destabilisation of the climate system, which excited an internal mode of variability in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength, causing multi-centennial climate fluctuations. There is some evidence for slowing down in the transition to and during the Younger Dryas. We infer that a bifurcation point was finally approached at the end of the Younger Dryas, in which the cold climate state, with weak Atlantic overturning circulation, lost its stability, and the climate tipped irreversibly into a warm interglacial state. The lack of a large triggering perturbation at the end of the Younger Dryas, and the fact that subsequent meltwater perturbations did not cause sustained cooling, support the bifurcation hypothesis.
    Print ISSN: 1814-9340
    Digitale ISSN: 1814-9359
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie
    Publiziert von Copernicus im Namen von European Geosciences Union.
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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