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  • 1
    Signatur: MOP Per 701/A(NF, 5, 4)
    In: Meteorologische Abhandlungen
    Materialart: Monographie ausleihbar
    Seiten: 168 S. : zahlr. graph. Darst., Kt.
    Serie: Meteorologische Abhandlungen : Serie A, Monographien N. F., 5, 4
    Standort: MOP - Bitte bestellen
    Zweigbibliothek: GFZ Bibliothek
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Notizen: Abstract Mean fields from a perpetual January simulation of a GCM extending from the surface to 0.01 hPa (near 80 km) are compared to observations. The zonal mean temperature and wind fields correspond quite well with reality; the low stratosphere, especially in the polar night, is too cold, but warmer than in the original version of the model, with an upper boundary at 25 hPa. Mean fields at standard levels show that the major features of the troposphere are represented by the model, but rather over emphasised; the stratospheric winter polar vortex is too strong, too cold, and too barotropic; it resembles an `undisturbed' January rather than the climatology. Differences in the stationary eddy activity between the extended and orginal versions of the model are noted, and used to explain some differences between the two simulations.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-01-01
    Beschreibung: The stratosphere contains ~17% of Earth’s atmospheric mass, but its existence was unknown until 1902. In the following decades our knowledge grew gradually as more observations of the stratosphere were made. In 1913 the ozone layer, which protects life from harmful ultraviolet radiation, was discovered. From ozone and water vapor observations, a first basic idea of a stratospheric general circulation was put forward. Since the 1950s our knowledge of the stratosphere and mesosphere has expanded rapidly, and the importance of this region in the climate system has become clear. With more observations, several new stratospheric phenomena have been discovered: the quasi-biennial oscillation, sudden stratospheric warmings, the Southern Hemisphere ozone hole, and surface weather impacts of stratospheric variability. None of these phenomena were anticipated by theory. Advances in theory have more often than not been prompted by unexplained phenomena seen in new stratospheric observations. From the 1960s onward, the importance of dynamical processes and the coupled stratosphere–troposphere circulation was realized. Since approximately 2000, better representations of the stratosphere—and even the mesosphere—have been included in climate and weather forecasting models. We now know that in order to produce accurate seasonal weather forecasts, and to predict long-term changes in climate and the future evolution of the ozone layer, models with a well-resolved stratosphere with realistic dynamics and chemistry are necessary.
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Digitale ISSN: 1943-3646
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-06-12
    Beschreibung: Variations in the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) with the 11-year sunspot cycle have been shown to have a significant impact on temperatures and the mixing ratios of atmospheric constituents in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Uncertainties in modelling the effects of SSI variations arise from uncertainties in the empirical models reconstructing the prescribed SSI data set as well as from uncertainties in the chemistry–climate model (CCM) formulation. In this study CCM simulations with the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model and the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1)–Whole Atmosphere Chemistry Climate Model (WACCM) have been performed to quantify the uncertainties of the solar responses in chemistry and dynamics that are due to the usage of five different SSI data sets or the two CCMs. We apply a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) to separate the influence of the SSI data sets and the CCMs on the variability of the solar response in shortwave heating rates, temperature, and ozone. The solar response is derived from climatological differences of time slice simulations prescribing SSI for the solar maximum in 1989 and near the solar minimum in 1994. The SSI values for the solar maximum of each SSI data set are created by adding the SSI differences between November 1994 and November 1989 to a common SSI reference spectrum for near-solar-minimum conditions based on ATLAS-3 (Atmospheric Laboratory of Applications and Science-3). The ANOVA identifies the SSI data set with the strongest influence on the variability of the solar response in shortwave heating rates in the upper mesosphere and in the upper stratosphere–lower mesosphere. The strongest influence on the variability of the solar response in ozone and temperature is identified in the upper stratosphere–lower mesosphere. However, in the region of the largest ozone mixing ratio, in the stratosphere from 50 to 10 hPa, the SSI data sets do not contribute much to the variability of the solar response when the Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstructions-T (SATIRE-T) SSI data set is omitted. The largest influence of the CCMs on variability of the solar responses can be identified in the upper mesosphere. The solar response in the lower stratosphere also depends on the CCM used, especially in the tropics and northern hemispheric subtropics and mid-latitudes, where the model dynamics modulate the solar responses. Apart from the upper mesosphere, there are also regions where the largest fraction of the variability of the solar response is explained by randomness, especially for the solar response in temperature.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Digitale ISSN: 1680-7324
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie
    Publiziert von Copernicus im Namen von European Geosciences Union.
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 5
    Publikationsdatum: 2000-10-01
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Digitale ISSN: 2156-2202
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 6
    Publikationsdatum: 2018-08-13
    Beschreibung: Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to an actual decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. To bring some clarity, we here revisit the question of future SSW changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative. Our analysis reveals that no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs will occur over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of the event. Changes in other SSW characteristics – such as their duration, deceleration of the polar night jet, and the tropospheric forcing – are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21st century.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Digitale ISSN: 1680-7324
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie
    Publiziert von Copernicus im Namen von European Geosciences Union.
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 7
    Publikationsdatum: 2018-06-01
    Beschreibung: Using a state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model we investigate the future change in stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) of ozone, the drivers of this change, as well as the future distribution of stratospheric ozone in the troposphere. Supplementary to previous work, our focus is on changes on the monthly scale. The global mean annual influx of stratospheric ozone into the troposphere is projected to increase by 53 % between the years 2000 and 2100 under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenario. The change in ozone mass flux (OMF) into the troposphere is positive throughout the year with maximal increase in the summer months of the respective hemispheres. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH) this summer maximum STE increase is a result of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, whilst in the Southern Hemisphere(SH) it is due to equal contributions from decreasing levels of ozone depleting substances (ODS) and increasing GHG concentrations. In the SH the GHG effect is dominating in the winter months. A large ODS-related ozone increase in the SH stratosphere leads to a change in the seasonal breathing term which results in a future decrease of the OMF into the troposphere in the SH in September and October. The resulting distributions of stratospheric ozone in the troposphere differ for the GHG and ODS changes due to the following: (a) ozone input occurs at different regions for GHG- (midlatitudes) and ODS-changes (high latitudes); and (b) stratospheric ozone is more efficiently mixed towards lower tropospheric levels in the case of ODS changes, whereas tropospheric ozone loss rates grow when GHG concentrations rise. The comparison between the moderate RCP6.0 and the extreme RCP8.5 emission scenarios reveals that the annual global OMF trend is smaller in the moderate scenario, but the resulting change in the contribution of ozone with stratospheric origin (O3s) to ozone in the troposphere is of comparable magnitude in both scenarios. This is due to the larger tropospheric ozone precursor emissions and hence ozone production in the RCP8.5 scenario.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Digitale ISSN: 1680-7324
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie
    Publiziert von Copernicus im Namen von European Geosciences Union.
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 8
    Publikationsdatum: 2018-06-15
    Beschreibung: 〉We analyse simulations performed for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion caused by anthropogenic stratospheric chlorine and bromine. We consider a total of 155 simulations from 20 models, including a range of sensitivity studies which examine the impact of climate change on ozone recovery. For the control simulations (unconstrained by nudging towards analysed meteorology) there is a large spread (±20 DU in the global average) in the predictions of the absolute ozone column. Therefore, the model results need to be adjusted for biases against historical data. Also, the interannual variability in the model results need to be smoothed in order to provide a reasonably narrow estimate of the range of ozone return dates. Consistent with previous studies, but here for a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 6.0, these new CCMI simulations project that global total column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2049 (with a 1σ uncertainty of 2043–2055). At Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values in 2045 (2039–2050), and at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in 2032 (2020–2044). In the polar regions, the return dates are 2060 (2055–2066) in the Antarctic in October and 2034 (2025–2043) in the Arctic in March. The earlier return dates in the Northern Hemisphere reflect the larger sensitivity to dynamical changes. Our estimates of return dates are later than those presented in the 2014 Ozone Assessment by approximately 5–17 years, depending on the region, with the previous best estimates often falling outside of our uncertainty range. In the tropics only around half the models predict a return of ozone to 1980 values, around 2040, while the other half do not reach the 1980 value. All models show a negative trend in tropical total column ozone towards the end of the 21st century. The CCMI models generally agree in their simulation of the time evolution of stratospheric chlorine and bromine, which are the main drivers of ozone loss and recovery. However, there are a few outliers which show that the multi-model mean results for ozone recovery are not as tightly constrained as possible. Throughout the stratosphere the spread of ozone return dates to 1980 values between models tends to correlate with the spread of the return of inorganic chlorine to 1980 values. In the upper stratosphere, greenhouse gas-induced cooling speeds up the return by about 10–20 years. In the lower stratosphere, and for the column, there is a more direct link in the timing of the return dates of ozone and chlorine, especially for the large Antarctic depletion. Comparisons of total column ozone between the models is affected by different predictions of the evolution of tropospheric ozone within the same scenario, presumably due to differing treatment of tropospheric chemistry. Therefore, for many scenarios, clear conclusions can only be drawn for stratospheric ozone columns rather than the total column. As noted by previous studies, the timing of ozone recovery is affected by the evolution of N2O and CH4. However, quantifying the effect in the simulations analysed here is limited by the few realisations available for these experiments compared to internal model variability. The large increase in N2O given in RCP 6.0 extends the ozone return globally by ∼ 15 years relative to N2O fixed at 1960 abundances, mainly because it allows tropical column ozone to be depleted. The effect in extratropical latitudes is much smaller. The large increase in CH4 given in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to RCP 6.0 also lengthens ozone return by ∼ 15 years, again mainly through its impact in the tropics. Overall, our estimates of ozone return dates are uncertain due to both uncertainties in future scenarios, in particular those of greenhouse gases, and uncertainties in models. The scenario uncertainty is small in the short term but increases with time, and becomes large by the end of the century. There are still some model–model differences related to well-known processes which affect ozone recovery. Efforts need to continue to ensure that models used for assessment purposes accurately represent stratospheric chemistry and the prescribed scenarios of ozone-depleting substances, and only those models are used to calculate return dates. For future assessments of single forcing or combined effects of CO2, CH4, and N2O on the stratospheric column ozone return dates, this work suggests that it is more important to have multi-member (at least three) ensembles for each scenario from every established participating model, rather than a large number of individual models.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Digitale ISSN: 1680-7324
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie
    Publiziert von Copernicus im Namen von European Geosciences Union.
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 9
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-07-26
    Beschreibung: Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) represent one of the most abrupt phenomena of the boreal wintertime stratospheric variability, and constitute the clearest example of coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere. A good representation of SSWs in climate models is required to reduce their biases and uncertainties in future projections of stratospheric variability. The ability of models to reproduce these phenomena is usually assessed with just one reanalysis. However, the number of reanalyses has increased in the last decade and their own biases may affect the model evaluation. Here we compare the representation of the main aspects of SSWs across reanalyses. The examination of their main characteristics in the pre- and post-satellite periods reveals that reanalyses behave very similarly in both periods. However, discrepancies are larger in the pre-satellite period compared to afterwards, particularly for the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. All datasets reproduce similarly the specific features of wavenumber-1 and wavenumber-2 SSWs. A good agreement among reanalyses is also found for triggering mechanisms, tropospheric precursors, and surface response. In particular, differences in blocking precursor activity of SSWs across reanalyses are much smaller than between blocking definitions.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Digitale ISSN: 1680-7324
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie
    Publiziert von Copernicus im Namen von European Geosciences Union.
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 10
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-06-22
    Beschreibung: This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850–2014), and future (2015–2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one (NRLTSI2–NRLSSI2) and a semi-empirical one (SATIRE). A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m−2. The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m−2. In the 200–400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %).We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry–climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day−1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day−1 at the stratopause), temperatures ( ∼  1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to prescribe SSI changes and include solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. We show that monthly-mean solar-induced ozone variations are implicitly included in the SPARC/CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for historical simulations, which is derived from transient chemistry–climate model simulations and has been developed for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models without chemistry that perform a preindustrial control simulation with time-varying solar forcing will need to use a modified version of the SPARC/CCMI Ozone Database that includes solar variability. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are also encouraged to use the particle forcing datasets, which will allow the potential long-term effects of particles to be addressed for the first time. The consideration of particle forcing has been shown to significantly improve the representation of reactive nitrogen and ozone variability in the polar middle atmosphere, eventually resulting in further improvements in the representation of solar climate variability in global models.
    Print ISSN: 1991-959X
    Digitale ISSN: 1991-9603
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie
    Publiziert von Copernicus im Namen von European Geosciences Union.
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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