ALBERT

Description: The skill of numerical Lagrangian drifter trajectories in three numerical models is assessed by comparing these numerically obtained paths to the trajectories of drifting buoys in the real ocean. The skill assessment is performed using the two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test. To demonstrate the assessment procedure, it is applied to three different models of the Agulhas region. The test can either be performed using crossing positions of one-dimensional sections in order to test model performance in specific locations, or using the total two-dimensional data set of trajectories. The test yields four quantities: a binary decision of model skill, a confidence level which can be used as a measure of goodness-of-fit of the model, a test statistic which can be used to determine the sensitivity of the confidence level, and cumulative distribution functions that aid in the qualitative analysis. The ordering of models by their confidence levels is the same as the ordering based on the qualitative analysis, which suggests that the method is suited for model validation. Only one of the three models, a 1/10 degree two-way nested regional ocean model, might have skill in the Agulhas region. The other two models, a 1/2 degree global model and a 1/8 degree assimilative model, might have skill only on some sections in the region.

Description: Interocean exchange of heat and salt around South Africa is thought to be a key link in the maintenance of the global overturning circulation of the ocean. It takes place at the Agulhas Retroflection, largely by the intermittent shedding of enormous rings that penetrate into the South Atlantic Ocean. This makes it extremely hard to estimate the inter ocean fluxes. Estimates of direct Agulhas leakage from hydrographic and tracer data range between 2 and 10 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1). The average ring shedding frequency, determined from satellite information, is approximately six rings per year. Their associated interocean volume transport is between 0.5 and 1.5 Sv per ring. A number of Agulhas rings have been observed to cross the South Atlantic. They decay exponentially to less than half their initial size (measured by their available potential energy) within 1000 km from the shedding region. Consequently, most of their properties mix into the surroundings of the Benguela region, probably feeding directly into the upper (warm) limb of the global thermohaline circulation. The most recent observations suggest that in the present situation Agulhas water and Antarctic Intermediate Water are about equally important sources for the Benguela Current. Variations in the strength of these may lead to anomalous stratification and stability of the Atlantic at decadal and longer timescales. Modeling studies suggest that the Indian-Atlantic interocean exchange is strongly related to the structure of the wind field over the South Indian Ocean. This leads in the mean to a subtropical supergyre wrapping around the subtropical gyres of the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans. However, local dynamical processes in the highly nonlinear regime around South Africa play a crucial role in inhibiting the connection between the two oceans. The regional bottom topography also seems to play an important role in locking the Agulhas Currents' retroflection. State-of-the-art global and regional “eddy-permitting” models show a reasonably realistic representation of the mean Agulhas system; but the mesoscale variability and the local geometrical and topographic features that determine largely the interocean fluxes still need considerable improvement. In this article we present a review of the above mentioned aspects of the interocean exchange around South Africa: the estimation of the fluxes into the South Atlantic from different types of observations, our present level of understanding of the exchanges dynamics and forcing, its representation in state-of-the-art models, and, finally, the impact of the Indian-Atlantic fluxes on regional and global scale both within the Atlantic Ocean and in interaction with the overlying atmosphere.