ALBERT

Description: This paper examines the modeling of two-dimensional homogeneous stratified turbulent shear flows using the Reynolds-stress and Reynolds-heat-flux equations. Several closure models have been investigated-, the emphasis is placed on assessing the effect of modeling the dissipation rate tensor in the Reynolds-stress equation. Three different approaches are considered: one is an isotropic approach while the other two are anisotropic approaches. The isotropic approach is based on Kolmogorov's hypothesis and a dissipation rate equation modified to account for vortex stretching. One of the anisotropic approaches is based on an algebraic representation of the dissipation rate tensor, while another relies on solving a modeled transport equation for this tensor. In addition, within the former anisotropic approach, two different algebraic representations are examined one is a function of the Reynolds-stress anisotropy tensor, and the other is a function of' the mean velocity gradients. The performance of these closure models is evaluated against experimental and direct numerical simulation data of pure shear flows. pure buoyant flows and buoyant shear flows. Calculations have been carried out over a range of Richardson numbers (Ri) and two different Prandtl numbers (Pr); thus the effect of Pr on the development of counter-gradient heat flux in a stratified shear flow can be assessed. At low Ri, the isotropic model performs well in the predictions of stratified shear flows; however, its performance deteriorates as Ri increases. At high Ri, the transport equation model for the dissipation rate tensor gives the best result. Furthermore, the results also lend credence to the algebraic dissipation rate model based on the Reynolds stress anisotropy tensor. Finally, it is found that Pr has an effect on the development of counter-gradient heat flux. The calculations show that, under the action of shear, counter-gradient heat flux does not occur even at Ri = 1 in an air flow.

Description: The Magnetospheric Multiscale mission (MMS) consists of four identical spacecraft forming a closely separated (less than or equal to 10 km) and nearly regular tetrahedron. This configuration enables the decoupling of spatial and temporal variations and allows the calculation of the spatial gradients of plasma and electromagnetic field quantities. We make full use of the well cross-calibrated MMS magnetometers and fast plasma instruments measurements to calculate both the magnetic and plasma forces in flux transfer events (FTEs) and evaluate the relative contributions of different forces to the magnetopause momentum variation. This analysis demonstrates that some but not all FTEs, consistent with previous studies, are indeed force-free structures in which the magnetic pressure force balances the magnetic curvature force. Furthermore, we contrast these events with FTE events that have non-force-free signatures.

Description: The effects of turbulence modeling on the prediction of equilibrium states of turbulent buoyant shear flows were investigated. The velocity field models used include a two-equation closure, a Reynolds-stress closure assuming two different pressure-strain models and three different dissipation rate tensor models. As for the thermal field closure models, two different pressure-scrambling models and nine different temperature variance dissipation rate, Epsilon(0) equations were considered. The emphasis of this paper is focused on the effects of the Epsilon(0)-equation, of the dissipation rate models, of the pressure-strain models and of the pressure-scrambling models on the prediction of the approach to equilibrium turbulence. Equilibrium turbulence is defined by the time rate (if change of the scaled Reynolds stress anisotropic tensor and heat flux vector becoming zero. These conditions lead to the equilibrium state parameters. Calculations show that the Epsilon(0)-equation has a significant effect on the prediction of the approach to equilibrium turbulence. For a particular Epsilon(0)-equation, all velocity closure models considered give an equilibrium state if anisotropic dissipation is accounted for in one form or another in the dissipation rate tensor or in the Epsilon(0)-equation. It is further found that the models considered for the pressure-strain tensor and the pressure-scrambling vector have little or no effect on the prediction of the approach to equilibrium turbulence.

Description: Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

Description: Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

Description: Semantic segmentation and depth completion are two challenging tasks in scene understanding, and they are widely used in robotics and autonomous driving. Although several studies have been proposed to jointly train these two tasks using some small modifications, such as changing the last layer, the result of one task is not utilized to improve the performance of the other one despite that there are some similarities between these two tasks. In this article, we propose multitask generative adversarial networks (Multitask GANs), which are not only competent in semantic segmentation and depth completion but also improve the accuracy of depth completion through generated semantic images. In addition, we improve the details of generated semantic images based on CycleGAN by introducing multiscale spatial pooling blocks and the structural similarity reconstruction loss. Furthermore, considering the inner consistency between semantic and geometric structures, we develop a semantic-guided smoothness loss to improve depth completion results. Extensive experiments on the Cityscapes data set and the KITTI depth completion benchmark show that the Multitask GANs are capable of achieving competitive performance for both semantic segmentation and depth completion tasks.

Description: The Upper Tarim River basin, contributing about 85% of the total inflow to the mainstream Tarim River, is heavily influenced by climate change and human interferences. This study is the first integrated assessment of agriculture and water management under climate change scenarios for this arid river basin in Central Asia. It aims to analyze changes in river discharge of the Upper Tarim under 28 climate projections for 3 representative concentration pathways (RCP) and the A1B scenario and 30 combinations of changes in land use (agricultural area) and water saving measures considered as adaptation strategies. Headwater discharge simulations of two hydrological models (SWIM-G and WASA) are used to drive a hydrological model of the lowland area (SWIM-oasis), taking account irrigation and river transmission losses. The projections show that the river discharge of the Upper Tarim River is likely to increase in a warmer climate if the agricultural area is reduced to the level as in 1998 even without any water saving measures. If the agricultural area increases to the 2010 level, strong water saving measures must be applied to ensure sufficient water inflow to the mainstream Tarim under all climate scenarios. If agricultural area continues to expand, there is a risk of decreasing river discharge at the end of this century under the RCP2.6 scenario. The uncertainty of the projections is large, especially in the far future, and it is mainly related to the climate and hydrological models.

Description: Rice is the staple food for more than 50% of the world's population1–3. Reliable prediction of changes in rice yield is thus central for maintaining global food security. This is an extraordinary challenge. Here, we compare the sensitivity of rice yield to temperature increase derived from field warming experiments and three modelling approaches: statistical models, local crop models and global gridded crop models. Field warming experiments produce a substantial rice yield loss under warming, with an average temperature sensitivity of −5.2 ± 1.4% K−1. Local crop models give a similar sensitivity (−6.3 ± 0.4% K−1), but statistical and global gridded crop models both suggest less negative impacts of warming on yields (−0.8 ± 0.3% and −2.4 ± 3.7% K−1, respectively). Using data from field warming experiments, we further propose a conditional probability approach to constrain the large range of global gridded crop model results for the future yield changes in response to warming by the end of the century (from −1.3% to −9.3% K−1). The constraint implies a more negative response to warming (−8.3 ± 1.4% K−1) and reduces the spread of the model ensemble by 33%. This yield reduction exceeds that estimated by the International Food Policy Research Institute assessment (−4.2 to −6.4% K−1) (ref. 4). Our study suggests that without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation and genetic improvement, severe rice yield losses are plausible under intensive climate warming scenarios.

Description: This archive provides the scripts and routines used as part of the publication "ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century", published in The Cryosphere, https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3033/2020/

Description: The Tarim River basin, located in Xinjiang, NW China, is the largest endorheic river basin in China and one of the largest in all of Central Asia. Due to the extremely arid climate, with an annual precipitation of less than 100 mm, the water supply along the Aksu and Tarim rivers solely depends on river water. This is linked to anthropogenic activities (e.g., agriculture) and natural and semi-natural ecosystems as both compete for water. The ongoing increase in water consumption by agriculture and other human activities in this region has been enhancing the competition for water between human needs and nature. Against this background, 11 German and 6 Chinese universities and research institutes have formed the consortium SuMaRiO (Sustainable Management of River Oases along the Tarim River; http://www.sumario.de), which aims to create a holistic picture of the availability of water resources in the Tarim River basin and the impacts on anthropogenic activities and natural ecosystems caused by the water distribution within the Tarim River basin. On the basis of the results from field studies and modeling approaches as well as from suggestions by the relevant regional stakeholders, a decision support tool (DST) will be implemented that will then assist stakeholders in balancing the competition for water, acknowledging the major external effects of water allocation to agriculture and to natural ecosystems. This consortium was formed in 2011 and is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. As the data collection phase was finished this year, the paper presented here brings together the results from the fields from the disciplines of climate modeling, cryology, hydrology, agricultural sciences, ecology, geoinformatics, and social sciences in order to present a comprehensive picture of the effects of different water availability schemes on anthropogenic activities and natural ecosystems along the Tarim River. The second objective is to present the project structure of the whole consortium, the current status of work (i.e., major new results and findings), explain the foundation of the decision support tool as a key product of this project, and conclude with application recommendations for the region. The discharge of the Aksu River, which is the major tributary of the Tarim, has been increasing over the past 6 decades. From 1989 to 2011, agricultural area more than doubled: cotton became the major crop and there was a shift from small-scale to large-scale intensive farming. The ongoing increase in irrigated agricultural land leads to the increased threat of salinization and soil degradation caused by increased evapotranspiration. Aside from agricultural land, the major natural and semi-natural ecosystems are riparian (Tugai) forests, shrub vegetation, reed beds, and other grassland, as well as urban and peri-urban vegetation. Within the SuMaRiO cluster, focus has been set on the Tugai forests, with Populus euphratica as the dominant tree species, because these forests belong to the most productive and species-rich natural ecosystems of the Tarim River basin. At sites close to the groundwater, the annual stem diameter increments of Populus euphratica correlated with the river runoffs of the previous year. However, the natural river dynamics cease along the downstream course and thus hamper the recruitment of Populus euphratica. A study on the willingness to pay for the conservation of the natural ecosystems was conducted to estimate the concern of the people in the region and in China's capital. These household surveys revealed that there is a considerable willingness to pay for conservation of the natural ecosystems, with mitigation of dust and sandstorms considered the most important ecosystem service. Stakeholder dialogues contributed to creating a scientific basis for a sustainable management in the future.