ALBERT

Description: Observations about the relationship between seismic activity and astronomical phenomena are discussed. First, after investigating the seismic data (magnitude 7.0 and over) with the method of superposed epochs it is found that world seismicity evidently increased after the occurring of novae with apparent magnitude brighter than 2.2. Second, a great many earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 and over occurred in the 13th month after two of the largest ground level solar cosmic ray events (GLEs). The causes of three high level phenomena of global seismic activity in 1918-1965 can be related to these, and it is suggested that according to the information of large GLE or bright nova predictions of the times of global intense seismic activity can be made.

Description: A correlation between the incidence of influenza pandemics and increased cosmic ray activity is made. A correlation is also made between the occurrence of these pandemics and the appearance of bright novae, e.g., Nova Eta Car. Four indices based on increased cosmic ray activity and novae are proposed to predict future influenza pandemics and viral antigenic shifts.

Description: Transition metal doped solids are of significant current interest for the development of tunable solid-state lasers for the near and mid-infrared (1-4 pm) spectral region. Applications of these lasers include basic research in atomic, molecular, and solid-state physics, optical communication, medicine, and environmental studies of the atmosphere. In transition metal based laser materials, absorption and emission of light arises from electronic transitions between crystal field split energy levels of 3d transition metal ions. The optical spectra generally exhibit broad bands due to the strong interaction between dopant and host (electron-phonon coupling). Broad emission bands offer the prospect of tunable laser activity over a wide wavelength range, e.g. the tuning range of Ti:Sapphire extends from 700-1100 run. The only current transition metal laser operating in the mid-infrared wavelength region (1.8-2.4 micro-m) is CO(2+):MgF2, but its performance is severely limited due to strong nonradiative decay at room temperature. Based on lifetime data, the quantum efficiency is estimated to be less than 3 deg/0 11,21. In general, the probability for non-radiative decay via multi-phonon relaxation increases with decreasing energy gap between ground and excited state. Therefore, efficient transition metal lasers beyond -1.6 micro-m are rare. Recently, tunable laser activity around 2.3 micro-m was observed from Cr doped ZnS and ZnSe. The new lasing center in these materials was identified as Cr(2+) occupying the tetrahedral Zn site. Tetrahedrally coordinated optical centers are rather unusual among transition metal lasers. Their potential usefulness, however, has been demonstrated by the recent development of near infrared laser materials such as Cr:forsterite and Cr:YAG, which are based on tetrahedrally coordinated Cr(4+) ions. According to the Laporte selection rule, electric-dipole transition within the optically active 3d-electron shells are parity forbidden. However, a static acentric electric crystal field or the coupling of asymmetric phonons can force electric-dipole transitions by the admixture of wave functions with opposite parity. Tetrahedral sites lack inversion symmetry which provides the odd-parity field necessary to relax the parity selection rule. Therefore, high absorption and emission cross sections are observed. An enhanced radiative emission rate is also expected to reduce the detrimental effect of non-radiative decay. Motivated by the initial results on Cr doped ZnS and ZnSe, we have started a comprehensive effort to study Cr(2+) doped II-VI semiconductors for solid-state laser applications. In this paper we present the optical properties and the demonstration of mid-infrared lasing from Cr doped Cd(0.85)Mn(0.15)Te.

Description: The Tarim River Basin is a special endorheic arid drainage basin in Central Asia, characterized by limited rainfall and high evaporation as common in deserts, while water is supplied mainly by glacier and snow melt from the surrounding mountains. The existing drought indices can hardly capture the drought features in this region as droughts are caused by two dominant factors (meteorological and hydrological conditions). To overcome the problem, a new hybrid drought index (HDI), integrating the meteorological and hydrological drought regimes, was developed and tested in the basin in the work. The index succeeded in revealing the drought characteristics and the ensemble influence better than the single standardized precipitation index or the hydrological index. The Artificial Neural Network approach based on temperature and precipitation observations was set up to simulate the HDI change. The method enabled constructing scenarios of future droughts in the region using climate simulation of the GCMs under four RCP scenarios from the latest CMIP5 project. The simulations in the study have shown that the water budget patterns in the Tarim River Basin are more sensitive to temperature than to precipitation. Dominated by temperature rise causing an accelerating snow/glacier melt, the frequency of drought months is projected to decrease by about 14% in the next decades (until 2035). The drought duration is expected to be shortened to 3 months on average, with the severity alleviated. However, the region would still suffer more severe droughts with a high intensity in some years. The general decrease in drought frequency and intensity over the region in the future would be beneficial for water resources management and agriculture development in the oases. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: A growing number of studies on streamflow projection in the context of global climate change have been widely reported in past years. However, current knowledge on the role of different hydrological models to estimate future climate impact on flood in the Tibet Plateau is still limited so far. In this work, a group of hydrological models in conjunction with statistical downscaling outputs (SDSM and ANN) from the HadCM3 GCM model are used to evaluate the impacts of climate change on floods in the 21st century over the headwater catchment of Yellow River, the Tibet Plateau. The influence of different hydrological models on flood projection and quantile estimation are addressed. The results show that: (1) three hydrological models generate acceptable results of flood magnitude and frequency at Tangnaihai station during the past 50 years; (2) quite similar projections for future floods are obtained by means of different hydrological models, decreasing flood magnitude corresponding to the 2-, 5-, 10- and 50-year return periods is found under most scenarios in the 21st century. Meanwhile, flood frequency is likely to reduce in response to climate change; (3) the uncertainty in projected flood quantile by three different hydrological models increases with recurrence interval in term of relative length of confidence interval (RL). Besides, RL for flood quantile in future climate scenarios is likely to become larger than the baseline period. The results are valuable to improve our current knowledge of climate impact research in the alpine regions.

Description: The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.

Description: The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland–carbon–climate nexus.