ALBERT

Description: We introduce a Bayesian method for guiding future directions for detection of life on exoplanets. We describe empirical and theoretical work necessary to place constraints on the relevant likelihoods, including those emerging from better understanding stellar environment, planetary climate and geophysics, geochemical cycling, the universalities of physics and chemistry, the contingencies of evolutionary history, the properties of life as an emergent complex system, and the mechanisms driving the emergence of life. We provide examples for how the Bayesian formalism could guide future search strategies, including determining observations to prioritize or deciding between targeted searches or larger lower resolution surveys to generate ensemble statistics and address how a Bayesian methodology could constrain the prior probability of life with or without a positive detection.

Description: The rapid rate of discoveries of exoplanets has expanded the scope of the science possible for the remote detection of life beyond Earth. The Exoplanet Biosignatures Workshop-Without-Walls (EBWWW) held in 2016 engaged the international scientific community across diverse scientific disciplines, to assess the state of the science and technology in the search for life on exoplanets, and to identify paths for progress. The workshop activities resulted in five (5) major review papers which provide: 1) an encyclopedic review of known and proposed biosignatures and models used to ascertain them; 2) an in-depth review of O2 as a biosignature, rigorously examining the nuances of false positives and negatives for evidence of life; 3) a Bayesian framework to comprehensively organize current understanding to quantify confidence in biosignature assessments; 4) an extension of that Bayesian framework in anticipation of increasing planetary data and novel concepts of biosignatures, and 5) a review of the upcoming telescope capabilities to characterize exoplanets and their environment. Because of the immense content of these review papers, this summary provides a guide to their complementary scope and highlights salient features. Strong themes that emerged from the workshop were that biosignatures must be interpreted in the context of their environment, and that frameworks must be developed to link diverse forms of scientific understanding of that context to quantify the likelihood that a biosignature has been observed. Models are needed to explore the parameter space where measurements will be widespread but sparse in detail. Given the technological prospects for large ground-based telescopes and direct imaging from space-based observatories, the detection of atmospheric signatures of a few potentially habitable planets may come before 2030.