ALBERT

Description: Program analysis and evaluation procedures for alternative space program planning

Description: Earth-to-orbit transportation economics based on available and approved launch vehicles of national booster program

Description: Plankton sampling was conducted in the Baltic to obtain sprat larvae. Their individual drift patterns were back-calculated using a hydrodynamic model. The modelled positions along the individual drift trajectories were subsequently used to provide insight into the environmental conditions experienced by the larvae. Autocorrelation analysis revealed that successive otolith increment widths of individual larvae were not independent. Otolith increment width was then modelled using two different generalized additive model (GAM) analyses (with and without autocorrelation), using environmental variables determined for each modelled individual larval position as explanatory variables. The results indicate that otolith growth was not only influenced by the density of potential prey but was controlled by a number of simultaneously acting environmental factors. The final model, not considering autocorrelation, explained more than 80% of the variance of otolith growth, with larval age as a factor variable showing the strongest significant impact on otolith growth. Otolith growth was further explained by statistically significant ambient environmental factors such as temperature, bottom depth, prey density and turbulence. The GAM analysis, taking autocorrelation into account, explained almost 98% of the variability, with the previous otolith increment showing the strongest significant effect. Larval age as well as ambient temperature and prey abundance also had a significant effect. An alternative approach applied individual-based model (IBM) simulations on larval drift, feeding, growth and survival starting as exogenously feeding larvae at the backcalculated positions. The IBM results revealed optimal growth conditions for more than 97% of the larvae, with a tendency for our IBM to slightly overestimate larval growth.

Description: Temperature effects on Baltic sprat are many and include both direct and indirect effects. Increasing temperature is thought to increase the survival of all early life stages, resulting in increased recruitment success. We quantified the spatially resolved temperature trend for major spawning grounds and depth layers being most relevant for sprat eggs and larvae, using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for 1979–2005. Results confirmed an underlying positive temperature trend. Next, we tested these time-series as new explanatory variables in an existing temperature-dependent recruitment function and applied these recruitment predictions in an agestructured ecological–economic optimization model, maximizing for profit. Economic optimal solutions depended upon variability in temperature trajectories. Under climate-change scenarios, mean optimal fishing mortality and related yields and profits increased. The extent of the increase was limited by the general shape of the stock–recruitment model and the assumption of density-dependence. This highlights the need to formulate better environmentally sensitive stock recruitment models. Under the current knowledge of Baltic sprat recruitment, the tested climate-change scenarios would result in a change in management targets. However, to serve as a quantitative management advice tool, models will have to address the above-mentioned concerns

Description:  An ensemble of twenty four coupled ocean-atmosphere models has been compared with respect to their performance in the tropical Pacific. The coupled models span a large portion of the parameter space and differ in many respects. The intercomparison includes TOGA (Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere)-type models consisting of high-resolution tropical ocean models and coarse-resolution global atmosphere models, coarse-resolution global coupled models, and a few global coupled models with high resolution in the equatorial region in their ocean components. The performance of the annual mean state, the seasonal cycle and the interannual variability are investigated. The primary quantity analysed is sea surface temperature (SST). Additionally, the evolution of interannual heat content variations in the tropical Pacific and the relationship between the interannual SST variations in the equatorial Pacific to fluctuations in the strength of the Indian summer monsoon are investigated. The results can be summarised as follows: almost all models (even those employing flux corrections) still have problems in simulating the SST climatology, although some improvements are found relative to earlier intercomparison studies. Only a few of the coupled models simulate the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in terms of gross equatorial SST anomalies realistically. In particular, many models overestimate the variability in the western equatorial Pacific and underestimate the SST variability in the east. The evolution of interannual heat content variations is similar to that observed in almost all models. Finally, the majority of the models show a strong connection between ENSO and the strength of the Indian summer monsoon.

Description: We describe the behaviour of 23 dynamical ocean-atmosphere models, in the context of comparison with observations in a common framework. Fields of tropical sea surface temperature (SST), surface wind stress and upper ocean vertically averaged temperature (VAT) are assessed with regard to annual mean, seasonal cycle, and interannual variability characteristics. Of the participating models, 21 are coupled GCMs, of which 13 use no form of flux adjustment in the tropics. The models vary widely in design, components and purpose: nevertheless several common features are apparent. In most models without flux adjustment, the annual mean equatorial SST in the central Pacific is too cool and the Atlantic zonal SST gradient has the wrong sign. Annual mean wind stress is often too weak in the central Pacific and in the Atlantic, but too strong in the west Pacific. Few models have an upper ocean VAT seasonal cycle like that observed in the equatorial Pacific. Interannual variability is commonly too weak in the models: in particular, wind stress variability is low in the equatorial Pacific. Most models have difficulty in reproducing the observed Pacific 'horseshoe' pattern of negative SST correlations with interannual Niño3 SST anomalies, or the observed Indian-Pacific lag correlations. The results for the fields examined indicate that several substantial model improvements are needed, particularly with regard to surface wind stress.

Description:  The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated in a multicentury integration conducted with the coupled general circulation model (CGCM) ECHAM3/LSG. The quasiperiodic interannual oscillations of the simulated equatorial Pacific climate system are due to subsurface temperature anomaly propagation and a positive atmosphere-ocean feedback. The gravest internal wave modes contribute to the generation of these anomalies. The simulated ENSO has a characteristic period of 5–8 years. Due to the coarse resolution of the ocean model the ENSO amplitude is underestimated by a factor of three as compared to observations. The model ENSO is associated with the typical atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Using wavelet statistics two characteristic interdecadal modulations of the ENSO variance are identified. The origins of a 22 and 35 y ENSO modulation as well as the characteristic ENSO response to greenhouse warming simulated by our model are discussed.

Description: The predictability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere climate system on interannual to decadal timescales has been studied by means of ensemble forecast experiments with a global coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Over most parts of the globe the model’s predictability can be sufficiently explained by damped persistence as expected from the stochastic climate model concept with damping times of considerably less than a year. Nevertheless, the tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic Ocean exhibit oscillatory coupled ocean–atmosphere modes, which lead to longer predictability timescales. While the tropical mode shares many similarities with the observed ENSO phenomenon, the coupled mode within the North Atlantic region exhibits a typical period of about 30 yr and relies on an interaction of the oceanic thermohaline circulation and the atmospheric North Atlantic oscillation. The model’s ENSO-like oscillation is predictable up to one-third to one-half (2–3 yr) of the oscillation period both in the ocean and the atmosphere. The North Atlantic yields considerably longer predictability timescales (of the order of a decade) only for quantities describing the model’s thermohaline circulation. For surface quantities and atmospheric variables only marginal predictability (of the order of a year) was obtained. The predictability of the coupled signal at the surface is destroyed by the large amount of internally generated (weather) noise. This is illustrated by means of a simple conceptual model for coupled ocean–atmosphere variability and predictability.