ALBERT

Description: The rapid decrease in O3 column densities observed during Antarctic spring has been attributed to several chemical mechanisms involving nitrogen, bromine, or chlorine species, to dynamical mechanisms, or to a combination of the above. Chlorine-related theories, in particular, predict greatly elevated concentrations of ClO and OClO and suppressed abundances of NO2 below 22 km. The heterogeneous reactions and phase transitions proposed by these theories could also impact the concentrations of HCl, ClNO3 and HNO3 in this region. Observations of the above species have been carried out from the ground by the National Ozone Expedition (NOZE-I, 1986, and NOZE-II, 1987), and from aircrafts by the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment (AAOE) during the austral spring of 1987. Observations of aerosol concentrations, size distribution and backscattering ratio from AAOE, and of aerosol extinction coefficients from the SAM-II satellite can also be used to deduce the altitude and temporal behavior of surfaces which catalyze heterogeneous mechanisms. All these observations provide important constraints on the photochemical processes suggested for the spring Antarctic stratosphere. Results are presented for the concentrations and time development of key trace gases in the Antarctic stratosphere, utilizing the AER photochemical model. This model includes complete gas-phase photochemistry, as well as heterogeneous reactions. Heterogeneous chemistry is parameterized in terms of surface concentrations of aerosols, collision frequencies between gas molecules and aerosol surfaces, concentrations of HCl/H2O in the frozen particles, and probability of reaction per collision (gamma). Values of gamma are taken from the latest laboratory measurements. The heterogeneous chemistry and phase transitions are assumed to occur between 12 and 22 km. The behavior of trace species at higher altitudes is calculated by the AER 2-D model without heterogeneous chemistry. Calculations are performed for solar illumination conditions typical of 60, 70, and 80 S, from July 15 to October 31.

Description: Satellite borne instruments, the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet spectrometer (SBUV), show that total column ozone has decreased by more than 5 percent in the neighborhood of 60 S at all seasons since 1979. This is considerably larger than the decrease calculated by 2-D models which take into account solar flux variation and increases of trace gas concentrations over the same period. The meteorological conditions (warmer temperature and the apparent lack of polar stratospheric clouds) at these latitudes do not seem to favor heterogeneous chemistry as the direct cause for the observed ozone reduction. A mechanism involving the seasonal transport of ozone-poor air mass from within the polar vortex to lower latitudes (the so-called dilution effect) is proposed as a possible explanation for the observed year-round ozone reduction in regions away from the vortex.

Description: The modeling groups are listed along with a brief description of the respective models.

Description: This is the final report. The overall objective of this project is to improve the understanding of coupling processes among atmospheric chemistry, aerosol and climate, all important for quantitative assessments of global change. Among our priority are changes in ozone and stratospheric sulfate aerosol, with emphasis on how ozone in the lower stratosphere would respond to natural or anthropogenic changes. The work emphasizes two important aspects: (1) AER's continued participation in preparation of, and providing scientific input for, various scientific reports connected with assessment of stratospheric ozone and climate. These include participation in various model intercomparison exercises as well as preparation of national and international reports. and (2) Continued development of the AER three-wave interactive model to address how the transport circulation will change as ozone and the thermal properties of the atmosphere change, and assess how these new findings will affect our confidence in the ozone assessment results.

Description: The potential impact of high-speed civil transport (HSCT) aircraft emissions on stratospheric ozone and the sensitivity of these results to changes in aerosol loading are examined with a two-dimensional model. With aerosols fixed at background levels, calculated ozone changes due to HSCT aircraft emissions range from negligible up to 4-6% depletions in column zone at northern high latitudes. The magnitude of the ozone change depends mainly on the NO(x) increase due to aircraft emissions, which depends on fleet size, cruise altitude, and engine design. The partitioning of the odd nitrogen species in the lower stratosphere among NO, NO2, N2O5, is strongly dependent on the concentration of sulfuric acid aerosol particles, and thus the sensitivity of O3 to NO(x) emissions changes when the stratospheric aerosol loading changes. Aerosol concentrations 4 times greater than background levels have not been unusual in the last 2 decades. Our model results show that a factor of 4 increase in aerosol loading would significantly reduce the calculated ozone depletion due to HSCT emissions. Because of the neutral variabiltiy of stratospheric aerosols, the possible impact of HSCT emissions on ozone must be viewed as a range of possible results.

Description: A zonal mean chemistry transport model (2-D CTM) coupled with a semi-spectral dynamical model is used to simulate the distributions of trace gases in the present day atmosphere. The zonal-mean and eddy equations for the velocity and the geopotential height are solved in the semi-spectral dynamical model. The residual mean circulation is derived from these dynamical variables and used to advect the chemical species in the 2- D CTM. Based on a linearized wave transport equation, the eddy diffusion coefficients for chemical tracers are expressed in terms of the amplitude, frequency and growth rate of dynamical waves; local chemical loss rates; and a time constant parameterizing small scale mixing. The contributions to eddy flux are from the time varying wave amplitude (transient eddy), chemical reactions (chemical eddy) and small scale mixing. In spite of the high truncation in the dynamical module (only three longest waves are resolved), the model has simulated many observed characteristics of stratospheric dynamics and distribution of chemical species including ozone. Compared with the values commonly used in 2-D CTMs, the eddy diffusion coefficients for chemical species calculated in this model are smaller, especially in the subtropics. It is also found that the chemical eddy diffusion has only a small effects in determining the distribution of most slow species, including ozone in the stratosphere.

Description: An interactive two-dimensional model of the stratosphere, consisting of a primitive equation dynamics module, a simplified HO(x) ozone model, and a full radiative transfer scheme, is used to study the effect of eddy diffusion in the model. Consideration is given to the effects of nonlocal forcing from dissipation in the model troposphere and frictional drag at mesospheric levels, mechanical damping in the stratosphere itself, and potential vorticity flux due to large scale waves. It is found that the ozone distributions generated with the model are very sensitive to the choice of values for the friction and the eddy diffusion coefficients. It is shown that reasonable latitudinal gradients of ozone may be obtained by using small values for the mechanical damping for the mid- and high-latitude stratopsphere.

Description: The impact of increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and other trace gases on stratospheric ozone is investigated with an interactive, two-dimensional model of gas phase chemistry, dynamics, and radiation. The scenarios considered are (1) a doubling of the CO2 concentration, (2) increases of CFCs, (3) CFC increases combined with increases of nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane CH4, and (4) the simultaneous increase of CO2, CFCs, N2O, and CH4. The radiative feedback and the effect of temperature and circulation changes are studied for each scenario. For the double CO2 calculations the tropospheric warming was specified. The CO2 doubling leads to a 3.1% increase in the global ozone content. Doubling of the CO2 concentrations would lead to a maximum cooling of about 12 C at 45 km if the ozone concentration were held fixed. The cooling of the stratosphere leads to an ozone increase with an associated increase in solar heating, reducing the maximum temperature drop by about 3 C. The CFC increase from continuous emissions at 1985 rate causes a 4.5% loss of ozone. For the combined perturbations a net loss of 1.3% is calculated. The structure of the perturbations shows a north-south asymmetry. Ozone losses (when expressed in terms of percent changes) are generally larger in the high latitudes of the southern hemisphere as a result of the eddy mixing being smaller than in the northern hemisphere. Increase of chlorine leads to ozone losses above 30 km altitude where the radiative feedback results in a cooler temperature and an ozone recovery of about one quarter of the losses predicted with a noninteractive model. In all the cases, changes in circulation are small. In the chlorine case, circulation changes reduce the calculated column depletion by about one tenth compared to offline calculations.

Description: This is the final report for NAS5-97039 for work performed between December 1996 and November 1999. The overall objective of this project is to improve the understanding of coupling processes among atmospheric chemistry, aerosol and climate, all important for quantitative assessments of global change. Among our priority are changes in ozone and stratospheric sulfate aerosol, with emphasis on how ozone in the lower stratosphere would respond to natural or anthropogenic changes. The work emphasizes two important aspects: (1) AER's continued participation in preparation of, and providing scientific input for, various scientific reports connected with assessment of stratospheric ozone and climate. These include participation in various model intercomparison exercises as well as preparation of national and international reports. (2) Continued development of the AER three-wave interactive model to address how the transport circulation will change as ozone and the thermal properties of the atmosphere change, and assess how these new findings will affect our confidence in the ozone assessment results.

Description: Results from a numerical model of the global emissions, transport, chemistry, and deposition of mercury (Hg) in the atmosphere are presented. Hg (in the form of Hg(O) and Hg(II)) is emitted into the atmosphere from natural and anthropogenic sources (estimated to be 4000 and 2100 Mg/ yr, respectively). It is distributed between gaseous, aqueous and particulate phases. Removal of Hg from the atmosphere occurs via dry deposition and wet deposition, which are calculated by the model to be 3300 and 2800 Mg/ yr, respectively. Deposition on land surfaces accounts for 47% of total global deposition. The simulated Hg ambient surface concentrations and deposition fluxes to the Earth's surface are consistent with available observations. Observed spatial and seasonal trends are reproduced by the model, although larger spatial variations are observed in Hg(O) surface concentrations than are predicted by the model. The calculated atmospheric residence time of Hg is -1.7 years. Chemical transformations between Hg(O) and HG(II) have a strong influence on Hg deposition patterns because HG(II) is removed faster than Hg(O). Oxidation of Hg(O) to HG(II) occurs primarily in the gas phase, whereas HG(II) reduction to Hg(O) occurs solely in the aqueous phase. Our model results indicated that in the absence of the aqueous reactions the atmospheric residence time of Hg is reduced to 1.2 from 1.7 years and the Hg surface concentration is -25% lower because of the absence of the HG(II) reduction pathway. This result suggests that aqueous chemistry is an essential component of the atmospheric cycling of Hg.