ALBERT

Description: A numerical algorithm based on Fermat's Principle was developed to simulate the propagation of Global Positioning System (GPS) radio signals in the refractivity field of a numerical weather model. The unique in the proposed algorithm is that the ray-trajectory automatically involves the location of the ground-based receiver and the satellite, i.e. the posed two-point boundary value problem is solved by an implicit finite difference scheme. This feature of the algorithm allows the fast and accurate computation of the signal travel-time delay, referred to as Slant Total Delay (STD), between a satellite and a ground-based receiver. We provide a technical description of the algorithm and estimate the uncertainty of STDs due to simplifying assumptions in the algorithm and due to the uncertainty of the refractivity field. In a first application, we compare STDs retrieved from GPS phase-observations at the German Research Centre for Geosciences Potsdam (GFZ STDs) with STDs derived from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses (ECMWF STDs). The statistical comparison for one month (August 2007) for a large and continuously operating network of ground-based receivers in Germany indicates good agreement between GFZ STDs and ECMWF STDs; the standard deviation is 0.5% and the mean deviation is 0.1%.

Description: This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850–2014), and future (2015–2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models. For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one (NRLTSI2–NRLSSI2) and a semi-empirical one (SATIRE). A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m−2. The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m−2. In the 200–400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %). We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry–climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day−1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day−1 at the stratopause), temperatures ( ∼  1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset. CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to prescribe SSI changes and include solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. We show that monthly-mean solar-induced ozone variations are implicitly included in the SPARC/CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for historical simulations, which is derived from transient chemistry–climate model simulations and has been developed for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models without chemistry that perform a preindustrial control simulation with time-varying solar forcing will need to use a modified version of the SPARC/CCMI Ozone Database that includes solar variability. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are also encouraged to use the particle forcing datasets, which will allow the potential long-term effects of particles to be addressed for the first time. The consideration of particle forcing has been shown to significantly improve the representation of reactive nitrogen and ozone variability in the polar middle atmosphere, eventually resulting in further improvements in the representation of solar climate variability in global models.

Description: Water vapor in the atmosphere plays an important role in meteorological applications. The Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) provides accurate all-weather observations. The application of the existing GNSS infrastructure for atmosphere sounding leads to rather inexpensive and reliable measurements of the atmospheric water vapor. Observations from GNSS networks contain information about the spatial and temporal distribution of the water vapor. Therefore, the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ) developed a water vapor tomography system to derive 3-Dimensional (3D) distributions of the tropospheric water vapor above Germany. The tomography makes use of the products provided by the GNSS processing center of the GFZ, where the atmosphere processing is currently limited to the Global Positioning System (GPS). Input data for the water vapor tomography are the GPS tropospheric products from about 300 ground stations. The GPS tropospheric products are Zenith Total Delay (ZTD), Integrated Water Vapor (IWV) and Slant Total Delay (STD). The accuracy of STDs is one of the important factors for the quality of the derived water vapor tomography. However, the Earth Parameter and Orbit System Software (EPOS), which is used to estimate the GPS-STDs at GFZ, provides only limited information about the accuracy of STDs. Three months of Water Vapor Radiometer (WVR) data are used to validate the GPS-STD and estimate its accuracy. By comparing the GPS-STD observations with systematic hemisphere scans of the WVR it could be shown that inhomogeneous atmospheric structures are reliably reproduced by the STDs. The validation has shown a high accuracy of the estimated STDs. The main objective of this thesis is to improve the water vapor tomography and to provide atmospheric water vapor products with good quality. A new tomographic algorithm based on a Kalman filter is added in the GFZ tomography system. The output is a 3D humidity field with a temporal resolution of 2.5 min and the error covariance matrix of the reconstructed states. The error covariance matrices for the observations and the covariance matrices for the uncertainty of the propagation are estimated in advance. The output has been validated with the Multiplicative Algebraic Reconstruction Technique (MART) tomography and radiosonde profiles. Besides the accuracy of STDs, the quality of the derived tomography is depending on many factors such as the spatial coverage of the atmosphere with slant paths and the spatial distribution of their intersections. This leads to temporal and spatial variations of the reconstruction quality. Independent observations are required to validate the generated water vapor tomography. One year of radiosonde data from the German Weather Service (DWD) have been used for the validation. The wet refractivity field of the tomography with about 50 km horizontal resolution and 500m vertical resolution has been interpolated to the RS profiles. The validations have been carried out point-by-point and also for the whole profile. A new technique has been developed to quantify the differences between humidity profiles. By considering the shape of the whole profile much more reliable conclusions can be drawn than by comparing only point-by-point differences. This method can be applied to improve the algorithms of GPS tomography. Further attempts have been made to analyze the long-term IWV time series. Since the GPS data are available for more than 10 years, the GPS-IWV time series are used for climatological studies and they will become more important in future when long time series will be available. Trends have been calculated for the period 2002-2012 using the IWV from the German GPS ground-based network. Different methods (per station or per region) have been used to analyze the IWV time series. The methods will be helpful for meteorologists to analyze variations of the local or regional weather. The investigations demonstrated that the ZTD/IWV and STD/SIWV could describe the amount of water vapor and its distribution in the troposphere reliably. Especially the spatial and temporal variation of the water vapor distribution in the troposphere can be estimated with the tomographic technique. The quality of the derived 3D humidity fields has been checked with the help of radiosonde data. In general the result of the validation is good but it shows a need to improve the quality of the water vapor tomography. With the development of GNSS (more satellites and more GNSS stations) and with improved algorithms (e.g., introduction of radiometer or radiosonde data), the tomography will in future provide a more complete view of the water vapor distribution in the atmosphere. In addition with increasing of GNSS time series, they can also be used for long-term studies. The GNSS meteorology can be widely applied in many fields, e.g., nowcasting, severe weather monitoring and data assimilation.

Description: Slant-integrated water vapor (SIWV) data derived from GPS STDs (slant total delays), which provide the spatial information on tropospheric water vapor, have a high potential for assimilation to weather models or for nowcasting or reconstruction of the 3-D humidity field with tomographic techniques. Therefore, the accuracy of GPS STD is important, and independent observations are needed to estimate the quality of GPS STD. In 2012 the GFZ (German Research Centre for Geosciences) started to operate a microwave radiometer in the vicinity of the Potsdam GPS station. The water vapor content along the line of sight between a ground station and a GPS satellite can be derived from GPS data and directly measured by a water vapor radiometer (WVR) at the same time. In this study we present the validation results of SIWV observed by a ground-based GPS receiver and a WVR. The validation covers 184 days of data with dry and wet humidity conditions. SIWV data from GPS and WVR generally show good agreement with a mean bias of −0.4 kg m−2 and an rms (root mean square) of 3.15 kg m−2. The differences in SIWV show an elevation dependent on an rms of 7.13 kg m−2 below 15° but of 1.76 kg m−2 above 15°. Nevertheless, this elevation dependence is not observed regarding relative deviations. The relation between the differences and possible influencing factors (elevation angles, pressure, temperature and relative humidity) are analyzed in this study. Besides the elevation, dependencies between the atmospheric humidity conditions, temperature and the differences in SIWV are found.

Description: Water vapor plays an important role in meteorological applications; GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) therefore developed a tomographic system to derive 3-D distributions of the tropospheric water vapor above Germany using GPS data from about 300 ground stations. Input data for the tomographic reconstructions are generated by the Earth Parameter and Orbit determination System (EPOS) software of the GFZ, which provides zenith total delay (ZTD), integrated water vapor (IWV) and slant total delay (STD) data operationally with a temporal resolution of 2.5 min (STD) and 15 min (ZTD, IWV). The water vapor distribution in the atmosphere is derived by tomographic reconstruction techniques. The quality of the solution is dependent on many factors such as the spatial coverage of the atmosphere with slant paths, the spatial distribution of their intersections and the accuracy of the input observations. Independent observations are required to validate the tomographic reconstructions and to get precise information on the accuracy of the derived 3-D water vapor fields. To determine the quality of the GPS tomography, more than 8000 vertical water vapor profiles at 13 German radiosonde stations were used for the comparison. The radiosondes were launched twice a day (at 00:00 UTC and 12:00 UTC) in 2007. In this paper, parameters of the entire profiles such as the wet refractivity, and the zenith wet delay have been compared. Before the validation the temporal and spatial distribution of the slant paths, serving as a basis for tomographic reconstruction, as well as their angular distribution were studied. The mean wet refractivity differences between tomography and radiosonde data for all points vary from −1.3 to 0.3, and the root mean square is within the range of 6.5–9. About 32% of 6803 profiles match well, 23% match badly and 45% are difficult to classify as they match only in parts.

Description: Solar signals in the atmosphere and the ocean, especially in tropopause temperatures and lower stratospheric water vapour are investigated using recent observational and reanalyses data sets for the period from 1958 through 2013. Previous observational and modeling studies demonstrated solar influences in the lower stratosphere resembling a positive Northern Annular Mode due to the top-down mechanism involving enhanced solar UV radiation in the stratosphere during solar maxima and dynamical amplification mechanisms in the atmosphere. We found that these stratospheric changes might propagate down to the troposphere and become zonally asymmetric with characteristic pressure and wind pattern over the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Such changes in tropospheric circulation are related to anomalous positive SST anomalies in the central Pacific which resemble an El Niño Modoki event. We show for the first time with ocean reanalysis data that these SST anomalies are amplified by a positive feedback through oceanic subsurface currents and heat transport in the equatorial Pacific. Anomalous warm SSTs in the equatorial central Pacific change the zonal SST gradient and lead to anomalous westerly winds and currents in the western Pacific and easterly winds and currents in the eastern Pacific. This indicates a convergence and less upwelling and therefore enhances the positive SST anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific. Such a positive feedback results in a peak of El Niño Modoki events about 2 years after the solar maximum. These solar-induced signals in the ocean in turn modify the circulation and convection in the troposphere, resulting in lagged solar signals of anomalous high tropopause heights and negative anomalies in tropopause temperatures as well as in lower stratospheric water vapour over the equatorial Pacific which are in agreement with a time evolving solar-induced El Niño Modoki-like SST pattern. We demonstrate a solar modulation of intrinsic decadal climate variability over the Pacific which is amplified by positive feedbacks between the ocean and the atmosphere.