ALBERT

Description: The project will investigate the use of radar altimetry (RA) data in the determination of the ocean circulation models. RA data will be used to verify prognostic experiments of the steady state and seasonal cycle of large-scale circulation models and the statistical steady state of eddy-resolving models. The data will serve as initial and update conditions in data assimilation experiments and as constraints in inverse calculations. The aim of the project is a better understanding of ocean physics, the determination and mapping of ocean currents, and a contribution to the establishment of ocean circulation models for climate studies. The goal of the project is to use satellite radar altimetry data for improving our knowledge of ocean circulation both in a descriptive sense and through the physics that govern the circulation state. The basic tool is a series of ocean circulation models. Depending on the model, different techniques will be applied to incorporate the RA data.

Description: For modeled sediment cores of the open ocean, a method for predicting simultaneously the ages of four different solid sediment compounds with respect to their depositional year onto the sediment surface is presented. The simulation of time-dependent age distribution in the sediment mixed layer and the eventually accumulating sediment is a prerequisite of a proper data assimilation of marine sediment core data into predictive climate models. Through such a data assimilation, marine paleoclimate data could then be efficiently used in order to optimally determine adjustable model parameters. The age simulation is based on a passive tracer transport method taking into account varying vertical advection rates within the sediment top layers, chemical pore water reactions, and bioturbation. It turns out that different weight fractions of the modeled sediment have different ages in one horizontal geometric depth-in-core level depending on the particle rain onto the sediment and the reactivity of the material within the sediment pore waters. For simultaneous consideration of paleoclimatic tracers associated within one and the same weight fraction, e.g., for calcium carbonate, tracers such as foraminiferal δ13C, and calcium carbonate weight percentages, this may not be critical. However, for simultaneous consideration of calcium carbonate and opal weight percentages, the age difference in the observed weight fractions may have to be corrected. The age offset between CaCO3 and opal depends critically on the sediment accumulation rate. Low-accumulation sites are more strongly affected than high-accumulation sites.

Description: The space-time structure and predictability of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon was investigated. Two comprehensive datasets were analyzed by means of an advanced statistical method, one based on observational data and the other on data derived from an extended-range integration performed with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. It is shown that a considerable portion of the ENSO-related low-frequency climate variability in both datasets is associated with a cycle involving slow propagation in the equatorial oceanic beat content and the surface wind field. The existence of this cycle implies the ability of climate predictions in the tropics up to lead times of about one year. This is shown by conducting an ensemble of predictions with our coupled general circulation model. For the first time a coupled model of this type was successfully applied to ENSO predictions.

Description: We have investigated the seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean circulation and the Indian summer monsoon simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model in a 26- year integration. Although the model exhibits significant climate drift, overall, the coupled GCM simulates realistically the seasonal changes in the tropical Indian Ocean and the onset and evolution of the Indian summer monsoon. The amplitudes of the seasonal changes, however, are underestimated. The coupled GCM also simulates considerable interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean circulation, which is partly related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and the associated changes in the Walker circulation. Changes in the surface wind stress appear to be crucial in forcing interannual variations in the Indian Ocean SST. As in the Pacific Ocean, the net surface beat flux acts as a negative feedback on the SST anomalies. The interannual variability in monsoon rainfall, simulated by the coupled GCM, is only about half as strong as observed. The reason for this is that the simulated interannual variability in the Indian monsoon appears to be related to internal processes within the atmosphere only. In contrast, an investigation based on observations shows a clear lead-lag relationship between interannual variations in the monsoon rainfall and tropical Pacific SST anomalies. Furthermore, the atmospheric GCM also fails to reproduce this lead-lag relationship between monsoon rainfall and tropical Pacific SST when run in a stand-alone integration with observed SSTs prescribed during the period 1970–1988. These results indicate that important physical processes relating tropical Pacific SST to Indian monsoon rainfall are not adequately modeled in our atmospheric GCM. Monsoon rainfall predictions appear therefore premature.

Description: A 26-year integration has been performed with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM). The oceanic part resolves all three oceans in the latitude band 70°N–70°S but is dynamically active only between 30°N and 30°S. The atmosphere is represented by a global low-order spectral model. The coupled model was forced by seasonally varying insolation. Although the simulated time-averaged mean conditions in both atmosphere and ocean show significant deviations from the observed climatology, the CGCM realistically simulates the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. In particular, the CGCM simulates an irregular ENSO with a preferred time scale of about 3 years. The mechanism for the simulated interannual variability in the tropical Pacific is related to both the “delayed action oscillator” and the “slow SST mode.” It therefore appears likely that either both modes can coexist or they degenerate to one mode within certain locations of the parameter space. This hypothesis is also supported by calculations performed with simplified coupled models, in which the atmospheric GCM was replaced by linear steady-state atmosphere models. Further, evidence is found for an eastward migration of zonal wind anomalies over the western Pacific prior to the extremes of the simulated ENSO, indicating a link to circulation systems over Asia. Because an earlier version of the CGCM did not simulate interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, additional experiments with a simplified coupled model have been conducted to study the sensitivity of coupled systems to varying mean oceanic background conditions. It is shown that even modest changes in the background conditions can push the coupled system from one flow regime into another.

Description: ECHO is a new global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM), consisting of the Hamburg version of the European Centre atmospheric GCM (ECHAM) and the Hamburg Primitive Equation ocean GCM (HOPE). We performed a 20-year integration with ECHO. Climate drift is significant, but typical annual mean errors in sea surface temperature (SST) do not exceed 2° in the open oceans. Near the boundaries, however, SST errors are considerably larger. The coupled model simulates an irregular ENSO cycle in the tropical Pacific, with spatial patterns similar to those observed. The variability, however, is somewhat weaker relative to observations. ECHO also simulates significant interannual variability in mid-latitudes. Consistent with observations, variability over the North Pacific can be partly attributed to remote forcing from the tropics. In contrast, the interannual variability over the North Atlantic appears to be generated locally.