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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2024-02-21
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The prediction skill of sub‐seasonal forecast models is evaluated for seven year‐round weather regimes in the Atlantic–European region. Reforecasts based on models from three prediction centers are considered and verified against weather regimes obtained from ERA‐Interim reanalysis. Results show that predicting weather regimes as a proxy for the large‐scale circulation outperforms the prediction of raw geopotential height. Greenland blocking tends to have the longest year‐round skill horizon for all three models, especially in winter. On the other hand, the skill is lowest for the European blocking regime for all three models, followed by the Scandinavian blocking regime. Furthermore, all models struggle to forecast flow situations that cannot be assigned to a weather regime (so‐called no regime), in comparison with weather regimes. Related to this, variability in the occurrence of no regime, which is most frequent in the transition seasons, partly explains the predictability gap between transition seasons and winter and summer. We also show that models have difficulties in discriminating between related regimes. This can lead to misassignments in the predicted regime during flow situations in which related regimes manifest. Finally, we document the changes in skill between model versions, showing important improvements for the ECMWF and NCEP models. This study is the first multi‐model assessment of year‐round weather regimes in the Atlantic–European domain. It advances our understanding of the predictive skill for weather regimes, reveals strengths and weaknesses of each model, and thus increases our confidence in the forecasts and their usefulness for decision‐making.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉This study is the first sub‐seasonal multi‐model assessment of seven year‐round weather regimes in the Atlantic–European domain. Greenland blocking tends to have the longest year‐round skill horizon for all models, especially in winter. The skill is lowest for the European blocking regime for all models, followed by Scandinavian blocking. Variability in the occurrence of no regime partly explains the predictability gap between the transition seasons and winter and summer. 〈boxed-text position="anchor" id="qj4512-blkfxd-0001" content-type="graphic" xml:lang="en"〉〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:00359009:media:qj4512:qj4512-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001656
    Description: AXPO Solutions AGN/A
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; blocking ; Europe ; North Atlantic oscillation ; windows of opportunity
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 2
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    In:  Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., Charleston, South Carolina, California Division of Mines San Francisco, vol. 92, no. 1, pp. 339-349, pp. L23602, (ISSN: 1340-4202)
    Publication Date: 2002
    Keywords: Seismicity ; Earthquake precursor: statistical anal. of seismicity ; Earthquake precursor: prediction research ; Izmit ; BSSA ; Oencel ; Oncel
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  • 3
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    In:  Pure and Applied Geophysics, Kyoto, AGU, vol. 152, no. 1, pp. 91-105, pp. L07305, (ISSN: 1340-4202)
    Publication Date: 1998
    Keywords: Earthquake ; Earthquake hazard ; Crustal deformation (cf. Earthquake precursor: deformation or strain) ; Structural geology ; Surface ; cracks, ; earthquake ; hazard ; parameters, ; south-western ; Anatolia ; Oencel, ; Oncel ; Civril ; PAG
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  • 4
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    In:  J. Geophys. Res., Charleston, South Carolina, California Division of Mines San Francisco, vol. 109, no. B11, pp. 339-349, pp. B11306, (ISSN: 1340-4202)
    Publication Date: 2004
    Keywords: Crustal deformation (cf. Earthquake precursor: deformation or strain) ; Seismicity ; Tectonics ; Geodesy ; NAF ; Fault zone ; 7215 ; Seismology: ; Earthquake ; parameters ; 7209 ; Earthquake ; dynamics ; and ; mechanics ; 7230 ; Seismicity ; and ; seismotectonics ; JGR ; 7223 ; Seismic ; hazard ; assessment ; and ; prediction
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  • 5
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    In:  J. Geophys. Res., Charleston, South Carolina, California Division of Mines San Francisco, vol. 106, no. B10, pp. 21,827-21,841, pp. L23602, (ISSN: 1340-4202)
    Publication Date: 2001
    Keywords: FractureT ; Fault zone ; Seismicity ; Gutenberg-Richter magnitude frequency b-value ; Maximum likelihood ; JGR ; Oencel ; Oncel
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2011-08-19
    Description: Measurements of radar backscatter from an artificial tree were made in the laboratory at 6 and 10 GHz at horizontal incidence. The system had a resolution cylinder 18 cm in diameter and 11 cm long, so about half of the tree (30.5 cm high) was within the beam. The mean returned power from the target with leaves was always higher than that from the target without leaves, as expected. The signal faded with an exponential distribution when the artificial tree was rotated about its trunk, with no angular trend apparent. When the leaves were present, tilted polarizations gave results favoring an angle corresponding with that of the branches. When leaves were absent, the trunk of the tree dominated the radar backscatter at all polarizations.
    Keywords: EARTH RESOURCES AND REMOTE SENSING
    Type: International Journal of Remote Sensing (ISSN 0143-1161); 12; 401-417
    Format: text
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2016-06-07
    Description: Oscillations of supported liquid drops are the subject of wide scientific interest, with applications in areas as diverse as liquid-liquid extraction, synthesis of ceramic powders, growing of pure crystals in low gravity, and measurement of dynamic surface tension. In this research, axisymmetric forced oscillations of arbitrary amplitude of viscous liquid drops of fixed volume which are pendant from or sessile on a rod with a fixed or moving contact line and surrounded by an inviscid ambient gas are induced by moving the rod in the vertical direction sinusiodally in time. In this paper, a preliminary report is made on the computational analysis of the oscillations of supported drops that have 'clean' interfaces and whose contact lines remain fixed throughout their motions. The relative importance of forcing to damping can be increased by either increasing the amplitude of rod motion A or Reynolds number Re. It is shown that as the ratio of forcing to damping rises, for drops starting from an initial rest state a sharp increase in deformation can occur when they are forced to oscillate in the vicinity of their resonance frequencies, indicating the incipience of hysteresis. However, it is also shown that the existence of a second stable limit cycle and the occurrence of hysteresis can be observed if the drop is subjected to a so-called frequency sweep, where the forcing frequency is first increased and then decreased over a suitable range. Because the change in drop deformation response is abrupt in the vicinity of the forcing frequencies where hysteresis occurs, it should be possible to exploit the phenomenon to accurately measure the viscosity and surface tension of the drop liquid.
    Keywords: Fluid Mechanics and Heat Transfer
    Type: Third Microgravity Fluid Physics Conference; 547-552; NASA-CP-3338
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2019-05-11
    Description: Radar system study of venus by electromagnetic radiation technique
    Keywords: COMPUTERS
    Type: ESL-SR-157
    Format: text
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2019-06-28
    Description: Much of the previous work on load balancing and scheduling in distributed environments was concerned with homogeneous systems and homogeneous loads. Several of the results indicated that random policies are as effective as other more complex load allocation policies. The effects of heterogeneity on scheduling algorithms for hard real time systems is examined. A distributed scheduler specifically to handle heterogeneities in both nodes and node traffic is proposed. The performance of the algorithm is measured in terms of the percentage of jobs discarded. While a random task allocation is very sensitive to heterogeneities, the algorithm is shown to be robust to such non-uniformities in system components and load.
    Keywords: DOCUMENTATION AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
    Type: Performance Related Issues in Distributed Database Systems; 11 p
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2019-05-11
    Description: Mechanism for noise of thin evaporated metal films
    Keywords: ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT
    Type: ESL-R-149
    Format: text
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