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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Understanding and predicting midlatitude cold spells is of scientific and public interest, given often associated severe impacts. However, large-scale atmospheric dynamics related to these events are not fully understood. The winter of 2017/18 was characterized by several cold spells affecting large parts of North America and Eurasia. Here, the role of stratosphere–troposphere coupling for the occurrence of cold spells in this winter is investigated using different wave propagation diagnostics. While the European cold spell in late February 2018 was influenced by a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) associated with wave absorption, the cold spells over North America at the end of December 2017 and early February 2018 were related to downward reflected waves over the North Pacific. Previously proposed wave reflection indices, however, either miss these reflection events or are not able to distinguish them from the major SSW related to wave absorption. To overcome this, a novel simple index based on eddy heat flux is proposed here, capturing regional wave reflection over the North Pacific. Reflection events detected with this index are shown to be followed by North Pacific blocking and negative temperature anomalies over North America. An improved understanding of the contribution of wave reflection for cold spells is crucial to better predict such events in the future.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The midwinter 2015/2016 was characterized by an unusually strong polar night jet (PNJ) and extraordinarily large stationary planetary wave (SPW) amplitudes in the subtropical mesosphere. The aim of this study is, therefore, to find the origin of these mesospheric SPWs in the midwinter 2015/2016 study period. The study duration is split into two periods: the first period runs from late December 2015 until early January 2016 (Period I), and the second period from early January until mid-January 2016 (Period II). While the SPW 1 dominates in the subtropical mesosphere in Period I, it is the SPW 2 that dominates in Period II. There are three possibilities explaining how SPWs can occur in the mesosphere: (1) they propagate upward from the stratosphere, (2) they are generated in situ by longitudinally variable gravity wave (GW) drag, or (3) they are generated in situ by barotropic and/or baroclinic instabilities. Using global satellite observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) the origin of the mesospheric SPWs is investigated for both time periods. We find that due to the strong PNJ the SPWs were not able to propagate upward into the mesosphere northward of 50∘ N but were deflected upward and equatorward into the subtropical mesosphere. We show that the SPWs observed in the subtropical mesosphere are the same SPWs as in the mid-latitudinal stratosphere. Simultaneously, we find evidence that the mesospheric SPWs in polar latitudes were generated in situ by longitudinally variable GW drag and that there is a mixture of in situ generation by longitudinally variable GW drag and by instabilities at mid-latitudes. Our results, based on observations, show that the abovementioned three mechanisms can act at the same time which confirms earlier model studies. Additionally, the possible contribution from, or impact of, unusually strong SPWs in the subtropical mesosphere to the disruption of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the same winter is discussed.
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  • 3
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    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Gravity waves (GWs) are important for coupling the mesosphere to the lower atmosphere during sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Here, a minor SSW is internally generated in a simulation with the upper‐atmosphere configuration of the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model. At a horizontal resolution of 20 km the simulation uses no GW drag parameterizations but resolves large fractions of the GW spectrum explicitly, including orographic and nonorographic sources. Consistent with previous studies, the simulated zonal‐mean stratospheric warming is accompanied by zonal‐mean mesospheric cooling. During the course of the SSW the mesospheric GW momentum flux (GWMF) turns from mainly westward to mainly eastward. Waves of large phase speed (40–80 m s urn:x-wiley:jgrd:media:jgrd55943:jgrd55943-math-0001) dominate the eastward GWMF during the peak phase of the warming. The GWMF is strongest along the polar night jet axis. Parameterizations of GWs usually assume straight upward propagation, but this assumption is often not satisfied. In the case studied here, a substantial amount of the GWMF is significantly displaced horizontally between the source region and the dissipation region, implying that the local impact of GWs on the mesosphere does not need to be above their local transmission through the stratosphere. The simulation produces significant vertically misaligned anomalies between the stratosphere and mesosphere. Observations by the Microwave Limb Sounder confirm the poleward tilt with height of the polar night jet and horizontal displacements between mesospheric cooling and stratospheric warming patterns. Thus, lateral GW propagation may be required to explain the middle‐atmosphere temperature evolution in SSW events with significant zonally asymmetric anomalies.
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The stratospheric polar vortex can influence the tropospheric circulation and thereby winter weather in the mid-latitudes. Weak vortex states, often associated with sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), have been shown to increase the risk of cold-spells especially over Eurasia, but its role for North American winters is less clear. Using cluster analysis, we show that there are two dominant patterns of increased polar cap heights in the lower stratosphere. Both patterns represent a weak polar vortex but they are associated with different wave mechanisms and different regional tropospheric impacts. The first pattern is zonally symmetric and associated with absorbed upward-propagating wave activity, leading to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and cold-air outbreaks over northern Eurasia. This coupling mechanism is well-documented in the literature and is consistent with the downward migration of the northern annular mode (NAM). The second pattern is zonally asymmetric and linked to downward reflected planetary waves over Canada followed by a negative phase of the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) and cold-spells in Central Canada and the Great Lakes region. Causal effect network (CEN) analyses confirm the atmospheric pathways associated with this asymmetric pattern. Moreover, our findings suggest the reflective mechanism to be sensitive to the exact region of upward wave-activity fluxes and to be state-dependent on the strength of the vortex. Identifying the causal pathways that operate on weekly to monthly timescales can pave the way for improved sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting of cold spells in the mid-latitudes.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 5
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    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Geopotential height measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder between 9‐ and 97‐km altitudes during 2004–2018 are used to examine long‐period (3–20 days) wave activity during the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring, with the primary focus on the response of normal mode Rossby waves in the middle atmosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Unusually large westward propagating waves with Zonal Wave Number 1 and period ∼10 days are observed at 55° latitude at the stratopause height (∼48 km) and above following final warmings of 2016, 2015, and 2005. In each case, large‐amplitude waves are observed for the duration of two to three wave cycles. Characteristics of the waves are in conformity with the second antisymmetric Rossby normal mode of Zonal Wave Number 1, or the quasi‐10‐day wave. The growth rate of the waves is significantly greater than the classical normal mode in the upper stratosphere (approximately 30–50 km) where instability conditions are met, indicating the amplification or excitation of the waves in that region. The response of the quasi‐10‐day wave during midwinter SSWs, and also during the spring transition without an SSW, is not as obvious as the wave response during final warmings. The results suggest that not only the occurrence of SSW but also the seasonal timing of SSW is an important factor for the transient variability of the quasi‐10‐day wave in the middle atmosphere.
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The stratopause is by definition the transition between the stratosphere and mesosphere. During winter the circulation at mid-latitudes and high latitudes in the stratosphere is mainly driven by quasi-stationary planetary waves (PWs), while the circulation in the mesosphere is mainly driven by gravity waves (GWs). The question arises of whether PWs or GWs dominate the variability of the stratopause. The most famous and dramatic variability of the middle atmosphere is a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) generated by PWs interacting with the polar vortex. A similar phenomenon but smaller in magnitude and more regional is stratopause temperature enhancements (STEs) initially observed by local measurements and generated by breaking PWs. Thus it seems that PWs dominate the variability of the stratopause. In this study we want to quantify to which extent quasi-stationary PWs contribute to the stratopause variability. To do that we combine local lidar observations at Kühlungsborn (54∘ N, 11∘ E) and Andenes (69∘ N, 16∘ E) with global MERRA-2 reanalysis data bringing the local variability of the stratopause into the global context. Therefore we compare the temperature time series at Kühlungsborn and Andenes at 2 hPa, the altitude where STEs maximize, with characteristics (amplitude and phase) of PWs with wave numbers 1, 2 and 3. We found that for Kühlungsborn and Andenes 98 % of the local day-to-day variability of the stratopause can be explained by the variability of PWs with wave number 1, 2 and 3. Thus, the winter stratopause day-to-day variability is highly dominated by the variability of PWs.
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: This work presents a connection between the density variation within the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) and changes in the intensity of solar radiation. On a seasonal timescale, these changes take place due to the revolution of the Earth around the Sun. While the Earth, during the northern-hemispheric (NH) winter, is closer to the Sun, the upper mesosphere expands due to an increased radiation intensity, which results in changes in density at these heights. These density variations, i.e., a vertical redistribution of atmospheric mass, have an effect on the rotation rate of Earth's upper atmosphere owing to angular momentum conservation. In order to test this effect, we applied a theoretical model, which shows a decrease in the atmospheric rotation speed of about ∼4 m s−1 at a latitude of 45∘ in the case of a density change of 1 % between 70 and 100 km. To support this statement, we compare the wind variability obtained from meteor radar (MR) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite observations with fluctuations in the length of a day (LOD). Changes in the LOD on timescales of a year and less are primarily driven by tropospheric large-scale geophysical processes and their impact on the Earth's rotation. A global increase in lower-atmospheric eastward-directed winds leads, due to friction with the Earth's surface, to an acceleration of the Earth's rotation by up to a few milliseconds per rotation. The LOD shows an increase during northern winter and decreases during summer, which corresponds to changes in the MLT density due to the Earth–Sun movement. Within the MLT the mean zonal wind shows similar fluctuations to the LOD on annual scales as well as longer time series, which are connected to the seasonal wind regime as well as to density changes excited by variations in the solar radiation. A direct correlation between the local measured winds and the LOD on shorter timescales cannot clearly be identified, due to stronger influences of other natural oscillations on the wind. Further, we show that, even after removing the seasonal and 11-year solar cycle variations, the mean zonal wind and the LOD are connected by analyzing long-term tendencies for the years 2005–2016.
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  • 8
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    In:  Deutschland auf dem Weg zur Klimaneutralität 2045 | ARIADNE Report
    Publication Date: 2022-06-02
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2023-02-24
    Description: An exceptionally strong stationary planetary wave with Zonal Wavenumber 1 led to a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Southern Hemisphere in September 2019. Ionospheric data from European Space Agency's Swarm satellite constellation mission show prominent 6‐day variations in the dayside low‐latitude region at this time, which can be attributed to forcing from the middle atmosphere by the Rossby normal mode “quasi‐6‐day wave” (Q6DW). Geopotential height measurements by the Microwave Limb Sounder aboard National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite reveal a burst of global Q6DW activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere during the SSW, which is one of the strongest in the record. The Q6DW is apparently generated in the polar stratosphere at 30–40 km, where the atmosphere is unstable due to strong vertical wind shear connected with planetary wave breaking. These results suggest that an Antarctic SSW can lead to ionospheric variability through wave forcing from the middle atmosphere.
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2021-07-25
    Description: An exceptionally strong stationary planetary wave with Zonal Wavenumber 1 led to a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Southern Hemisphere in September 2019. Ionospheric data from European Space Agency's Swarm satellite constellation mission show prominent 6-day variations in the dayside low-latitude region at this time, which can be attributed to forcing from the middle atmosphere by the Rossby normal mode “quasi-6-day wave” (Q6DW). Geopotential height measurements by the Microwave Limb Sounder aboard National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite reveal a burst of global Q6DW activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere during the SSW, which is one of the strongest in the record. The Q6DW is apparently generated in the polar stratosphere at 30–40 km, where the atmosphere is unstable due to strong vertical wind shear connected with planetary wave breaking. These results suggest that an Antarctic SSW can lead to ionospheric variability through wave forcing from the middle atmosphere.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; sudden stratospheric warming ; quasi-6-day wave ; planetary wave ; ionosphere ; vertical coupling ; Swarm
    Language: English
    Type: article
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