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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-07-06
    Description: Commodity crop expansion, for both global and domestic urban markets, follows multiple land change pathways entailing direct and indirect deforestation, and results in various social and environmental impacts. Here we compare six published case studies of rapid commodity crop expansion within forested tropical regions. Across cases, between 1.7 percent and 89.5 percent of new commodity cropland was sourced from forestlands. Four main factors controlled pathways of commodity crop expansion: (i) the availability of suitable forestland, which is determined by forest area, agroecological or accessibility constraints, and land use policies, (ii) economic and technical characteristics of agricultural systems, (iii) differences in constraints and strategies between small-scale and large-scale actors, and (iv) variable costs and benefits of forest clearing. When remaining forests were unsuitable for agriculture and/or policies restricted forest encroachment, a larger share of commodity crop expansion occurred by conversion of existing agricultural lands, and land use displacement was smaller. Expansion strategies of large-scale actors emerge from context-specific balances between the search for suitable lands; transaction costs or conflicts associated with expanding into forests or other state-owned lands versus smallholder lands; net benefits of forest clearing; and greater access to infrastructure in already cleared lands. We propose five hypotheses to be tested in further studies: (i) land availability mediates expansion pathways and the likelihood that land use is displaced to distant, rather than to local places; (ii) use of already-cleared lands is favored when commodity crops require access to infrastructure; (iii) in proportion to total agricultural expansion, large-scale actors generate more clearing of mature forests than smallholders; (iv) property rights and land tenure security influence the actors participating in commodity crop expansion, the form of land use displacement, and livelihood outcomes; (v) intensive commodity crops may fail to spare land when inducing displacement. We conclude that understanding pathways of commodity crop expansion is essential to improve land use governance.
    Keywords: Earth Resources and Remote Sensing
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN22540 , Environmental Research Letters (ISSN 1748-9326); 9; 7; 074012
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Land use, land use change, and forestry accounted for two-thirds of Brazil's greenhouse gas emissions profile in 2005. Amazon deforestation has declined by more than 80% over the past decade, yet Brazil's forests extend beyond the Amazon biome. Rapid expansion of cropland in the neighboring Cerrado biome has the potential to undermine climate mitigation efforts if emissions from dry forest and woodland conversion negate some of the benefits of avoided Amazon deforestation. Here, we used satellite data on cropland expansion, forest cover, and vegetation carbon stocks to estimate annual gross forest carbon emissions from cropland expansion in the Cerrado biome. Nearly half of the Cerrado met Brazil's definition of forest cover in 2000 (greater than or equal to 0.5 ha with greater than or equal to 10% canopy cover). In areas of established crop production, conversion of both forest and non-forest Cerrado formations for cropland declined during 2003-2013. However, forest carbon emissions from cropland expansion increased over the past decade in Matopiba, a new frontier of agricultural production that includes portions of Maranhao, Tocantins, Piau, and Bahia states. Gross carbon emissions from cropland expansion in the Cerrado averaged 16.28 Tg C yr (exp -1) between 2003 and 2013, with forest-to-cropland conversion accounting for 29% of emissions. The fraction of forest carbon emissions from Matopiba was much higher; between 2010-2013, large-scale cropland conversion in Matopiba contributed 45% of total Cerrado forest carbon emissions. Carbon emissions from Cerrado-tocropland transitions offset 5-7% of the avoided emissions from reduced Amazon deforestation rates during 2011-2013. Comprehensive national estimates of forest carbon fluxes, including all biomes, are critical to detect cross-biome leakage within countries and achieve climate mitigation targets to reduce emissions from land use, land use change, and forestry.
    Keywords: Earth Resources and Remote Sensing
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN51932 , Environmental Research Letters (e-ISSN 1748-9326); 12; 2; 025004
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2019-07-12
    Description: From 2006-2010 deforestation in the Amazon frontier state of Mato Grosso decreased to 30% of its historical average (1996-2005) while agricultural production reached an all time high, achieving the oft-cited objective of increasing production while maintaining forest cover. This study combines satellite data with government deforestation and production statistics to assess land-use transitions and potential market and policy drivers associated with these trends. In the forested region of the state, increased soy production from 2001-2005 was entirely due to cropland expansion into previously cleared areas (74%) or forests (26%). From 2006-2010, 78% of production increases were due to expansion (22% to yield increases), with 91% on previously cleared land. Cropland expansion fell from 10% to 2% of deforestation between the two periods, with pasture expansion accounting for most remaining deforestation. Declining deforestation coincided with a collapse of commodity markets and implementation of policy measures to reduce deforestation. Soybean profitability has since increased to pre-2006 levels while deforestation continued to decline, suggesting that anti-deforestation measures may have influenced the agricultural sector. We found little evidence of leakage of soy expansion into cerrado in Mato Grosso or forests in neighboring Amazon states during the late 2000s, although leakage to more distant regions is possible. This study provides empirical evidence that reduced deforestation and increased agricultural production can occur simultaneously in tropical forest frontiers through productive use of already cleared lands. It remains uncertain whether government and industry-led policies can contain deforestation when market conditions again favor a boom in agricultural expansion.
    Keywords: Earth Resources and Remote Sensing
    Type: GSFC.JA.5126.2011
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, longterm experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW x m(exp 1)). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with less than 1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN20760 , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (e-ISSN 1091-6490); 111; 17; 6347–6352
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