ALBERT

Description: The lateral distribution of gamma-families observed by emulsion chamber is sensitive to test transverse momentum of high energy interaction. But most part gamma-families are succesive interation's results which makes it necessary to analyze the propagation of gamma-ray in atmosphere. A gamma-ray with energy Er and transverse momentum Pt is produced at the altitude h. In the emulsion chamber experiment, Eob is estimated by decascade method. There are 30 gamma-families observed by Ganbala emulsion Chamber. A group of Monte-Carlo simulation gamma-families are used to compare with experimental data with the same treatment. It is found that both distributions are consistent.

Description: General features of family events with Summary E sub gamma 200 TeV, observed by the emulsion chambers at Mt. Kanbala, are presented in comparison with the Monte Carlo simulation. The lateral and cluster structure, and the energy spectra of constituent gamma-rays and hadrons are shown to be consistent with the Monte Carlo results calculated under the assumption of heavy-enriched primary, scaling, QCD jets and increasing cross-section.

Description: The intensity of big gamma-ray families associated by halo is obtained from Mt. Fuji experiment (650 g/sq.cm. atmospheric depth) and Mt. Kanbala experiment (515 g/sq.cm.). The results are compared with Monte Carlo calculation based on several assumptions on interaction mechanisms and the primary cosmic ray composition. The results suggest more than 3 times lower proton abundance among primaries than that of 10 to the 12th to 10 to the 13th eV region within the framework of quasi-scaling model of multiple production.

Description: The energy spectra of atmospheric cosmic rays at Mt. Kanbala (520 g/sq cm.) are measured with emulsion chambers. The power indexes of the spectra are values of about 2.0 for both gamma-rays and hadrons. Those fluxes are consistent with the ones expected from the model of primary cosmic rays with heavy nuclei of high content in the energy around 10 to the 15th power eV.

Description: Information on the fragmentation region in super high energy hadronic interactions can be obtained through the observations of gamma-ray families produced by cosmic rays. Gamma-ray families with the sum of E sub gamma or 1000 TeV are receiving increasing interests in emulsion chamber experiments. There exist some complications caused by the superposition of nuclear and electromagnetic cascades and the uncertainty in the nature of the primary particles. These complications usually make the conclusions drawn from various interesting phenomena observed in family events not so definite. An interesting family event KO E19, which is likely to have suffered only very slight disturbances is described. It was found in the Mt. Kambala emulsion chamber experiment. The production height of the event is determined to be H=(70 + or - 30)m and some conclusions are given.

Description: Data assimilation (DA) holds considerable potential for improving hydrologic predictions as demonstrated in numerous research studies. However, advances in hydrologic DA research have not been adequately or timely implemented in operational forecast systems to improve the skill of forecasts for better informed real-world decision making. This is due in part to a lack of mechanisms to properly quantify the uncertainty in observations and forecast models in real-time forecasting situations and to conduct the merging of data and models in a way that is adequately efficient and transparent to operational forecasters. The need for effective DA of useful hydrologic data into the forecast process has become increasingly recognized in recent years. This motivated a hydrologic DA workshop in Delft, the Netherlands in November 2010, which focused on advancing DA in operational hydrologic forecasting and water resources management. As an outcome of the workshop, this paper reviews, in relevant detail, the current status of DA applications in both hydrologic research and operational practices, and discusses the existing or potential hurdles and challenges in transitioning hydrologic DA research into cost-effective operational forecasting tools, as well as the potential pathways and newly emerging opportunities for overcoming these challenges. Several related aspects are discussed, including (1) theoretical or mathematical aspects in DA algorithms, (2) the estimation of different types of uncertainty, (3) new observations and their objective use in hydrologic DA, (4) the use of DA for real-time control of water resources systems, and (5) the development of community-based, generic DA tools for hydrologic applications. It is recommended that cost-effective transition of hydrologic DA from research to operations should be helped by developing community-based, generic modeling and DA tools or frameworks, and through fostering collaborative efforts among hydrologic modellers, DA developers, and operational forecasters.

Description: Despite modest emissions reductions of air pollutants in recent years, China still suffers from poor air quality, and the outlook for future air quality in China is uncertain. We explore the impact of two disparate 2050 emissions scenarios relative to 2015 in the context of a changing climate with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model version 3 (GFDL-AM3) chemistry-climate model. We impose the same near-term climate change for both emission scenarios by setting global sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice cover (SIC) to the average over 20102019 and 20462055, respectively, from a three-member ensemble of GFDL coupled climate model simulations under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario. By the 2050s, annual mean surface ozone increases throughout China by up to 8 ppbv from climate change alone (estimated by holding air pollutants at 2015 levels while setting SIC and SST to 2050 conditions in the model) and by 812 ppbv in a scenario in which emissions of ozone precursors nitrogen oxides (NO (sub x) ) and anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) increase by ~10%. In a scenario in which NO (sub x) and anthropogenic VOC emissions decline by 60%, annual mean surface ozone over China decreases by 1620 ppbv in the 2050s relative to the 2010s. The ozone increase from climate change alone results in an additional 62 000 premature deaths in China as compared to 330 000 fewer premature deaths by the 2050s under a strong emissions mitigation scenario. In springtime over Southwestern China in the 2050s, the model projects 912 ppbv enhancements to surface ozone from the stratosphere (diagnosed with a model tracer) and from international anthropogenic emissions (diagnosed by differencing AM3 simulations with the same emissions within China but higher versus lower emissions in the rest of the world). Our findings highlight the effectiveness of emissions controls in reducing the health burden in China due to air pollution, and also the potential for climate change and rising global emissions to offset, at least partially, some of the ozone decreases attained with regional emission reductions in China.