ALBERT

Description: Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada This paper describes the fundamental theory of the ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) algorithm for the seasonal climate forecasting. The algorithm is a statistical regression sch eme based on maximal correlation between the predictor and predictand. The prediction error is estimated by a spectral method using the basis of empirical orthogonal functions. The ECC algorithm treats the predictors and predictands as continuous fields and is an improvement from the traditional canonical correlation prediction. The improvements include the use of area-factor, estimation of prediction error, and the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The ECC is applied to the seasonal forecasting over various parts of the world. The example presented here is for the North America precipitation. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST) from different ocean basins. The Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST (1951-1999) is used as the predictor's historical data. The optimally interpolated global monthly precipitation is used as the predictand?s historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the ECC algorithm renders very high skill and the optimal ensemble is very important to the high value.

Description: The intraseasonal variation (ISV) in the 30-60 day band, also known as Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), has been studied for decades. Madden and Julian showed that the oscillation originated from the western Indian Ocean, propagated eastward, got enhanced over the maritime continent and weakened after passing over the dateline. Composite studies showed evidences of a signal in upper and lower level zonal wind propagating around the globe during an oscillation. Theoretical studies pointed out that the interaction with the warm ocean surface and the coupling with the convective and radiative processes in the atmosphere could manifest the oscillation, which propagates eastward via mutual feedbacks between the wave motions and the cumulus heating. Over tropical South America, no independent 30-60 day oscillation has been reported so far, despite that Amazon is the most distinct tropical convection center over the western hemisphere and the fluxes from its surface of tropical rainforests are close to that from the warm tropical ocean. Liebmann et al. showed a distinct spectral peak of 40-50 day oscillation in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over tropical South America and considered that was manifested by the MJO propagation. Nogues-Paegle et al. (2000) focused on a dipole pattern of the OLR anomaly with centers of action over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and the subtropical plain. They used the regional 10-90 day filtered data and demonstrated this pattern could be represented by the fifth mode of the rotated empirical orthogonal function. Its principal component was further analyzed using the singular spectrum analysis. Their result showed two oscillatory modes with periods of 36-40 days and 22-28 days, of which the former was related to the MJO influence and the latter linked to the remote forcing over southwest of Australia, which produced a wave train propagating southeastward, rounding the southern tip of South America and returning back toward the northeast. The 22-28 day mode has distinct impact on SACZ, responsible for the regional seesaw pattern of alternating dry and wet conditions. In this study we will focus on the 30-60-day spectral band and investigate whether the independent oscillation source over tropical South America is existed. First, we will show the seasonal dependence of the tropical South American ISV in Section 3. Then, the leading principal modes of 30-60 day bandpass filtered 850-hPa velocity potential (VP850) will be computed to distinguish the stationary ISV over tropical South America (SISA) from the propagating MJO in the austral summertime in Section 4. The importance of SISA in representing the regional ISV over South America will be discussed. In Section 5, we will demonstrate the mass oscillation regime of SISA, which is well separated from that of MJO by the Andes, and the convective coupling with rainfall. The dynamical response of SISA and the impact on the South American summer monsoon (SASM) will be presented. Finally, we will give the concluding remarks.

Description: Noting the similarities among the spatial patterns of outgoing longwave radiation among MJO and ENSO, Lau and Chan speculated a possible relationship between the two phenomena. This speculation received a substantial boost in credibility after the 1997-98 El Nino, when MJO activities were found to be substantially enhanced prior to the onset of the warm phase, and clear signals of oceanic Kelvin waves forced by MJO induced anomalous surface wind were detected as possible triggers of ENSO. Yet statistical and modeling studies have so far yielded either nil or at best, very weak relationship between MJO activities and SST. Recently Kessler suggested using an MJO index which includes convective variability in the equatorial central Pacific lead to a more robust MJO-ENSO relationship. Clearly, while MJO might have been instrumental in triggering some El Nino, there are other events that can occur without any MJO trigger.

Description: The interaction of sunlight with atmospheric gases, aerosols and clouds is fundamental to the understanding of climate and its variation. Several studies questioned our understanding of atmospheric absorption of sunlight in cloudy or in cloud free atmospheres. Uncertainty in instruments' accuracy and in the analysis methods makes this problem difficult to resolve. Here we use several years of measurements of sky and sun spectral brightness by selected instruments of the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), that have known and high measurement accuracy. The measurements taken in several locations around the world show that in the atmospheric windows 0.44, 0.06, 0.86 and 1.02 microns the only significant absorbers in cloud free atmosphere is aerosol and ozone. This conclusions is reached using a method developed to distinguish between absorption associated with the presence of aerosol and absorption that is not related to the presence of aerosol. Non-aerosol absorption, defined as spectrally independent or smoothly variable, was found to have an optical thickness smaller than 0.002 corresponding to absorption of sunlight less than 1W/sq m, or essentially zero.

Description: Two fixed-threshold Canada Centre for Remote Sensing and European Space Agency (CCRS and ESA) and three contextual GIGLIO, International Geosphere and Biosphere Project, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (GIGLIO, IGBP, and MODIS) algorithms were used for fire detection with Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data acquired over Canada during the 1995 fire season. The CCRS algorithm was developed for the boreal ecosystem, while the other four are for global application. The MODIS algorithm, although developed specifically for use with the MODIS sensor data, was applied to AVHRR in this study for comparative purposes. Fire detection accuracy assessment for the algorithms was based on comparisons with available 1995 burned area ground survey maps covering five Canadian provinces. Overall accuracy estimations in terms of omission (CCRS=46%, ESA=81%, GIGLIO=75%, IGBP=51%, MODIS=81%) and commission (CCRS=0.35%, ESA=0.08%, GIGLIO=0.56%, IGBP=0.75%, MODIS=0.08%) errors over forested areas revealed large differences in performance between the algorithms, with no relevance to type (fixed-threshold or contextual). CCRS performed best in detecting real forest fires, with the least omission error, while ESA and MODIS produced the highest omission error, probably because of their relatively high threshold values designed for global application. The commission error values appear small because the area of pixels falsely identified by each algorithm was expressed as a ratio of the vast unburned forest area. More detailed study shows that most commission errors in all the algorithms were incurred in nonforest agricultural areas, especially on days with very high surface temperatures. The advantage of the high thresholds in ESA and MODIS was that they incurred the least commission errors.

Description: Five Microtops II sun photometers were studied in detail at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) to determine their performance in measuring aerosol optical thickness (AOT or Tau(sub alphalambda) and precipitable column water vapor (W). Each derives Tau(sub alphalambda) from measured signals at four wavelengths lambda (340, 440, 675, and 870 nm), and W from the 936 nm signal measurements. Accuracy of Tau(sub alphalambda) and W determination depends on the reliability of the relevant channel calibration coefficient (V(sub 0)). Relative calibration by transfer of parameters from a more accurate sun photometer (such as the Mauna-Loa-calibrated AERONET master sun photometer at GSFC) is more reliable than Langley calibration performed at GSFC. It was found that the factory-determined value of the instrument constant for the 936 nm filter (k= 0.7847) used in the Microtops' internal algorithm is unrealistic, causing large errors in V(sub 0(936)), Tau(sub alpha936), and W. Thus, when applied for transfer calibration at GSFC, whereas the random variation of V(aub 0) at 340 to 870 nm is quite small, with coefficients of variation (CV) in the range of 0 to 2.4%, at 936 nm the CV goes up to 19%. Also, the systematic temporal variation of V(sub 0) at 340 to 870 nm is very slow, while at 936 nm it is large and exhibits a very high dependence on W. The algorithm also computes Tau(sub alpha936) as 0.91Tau(sub alpha870), which is highly simplistic. Therefore, it is recommended to determine Tau(sub alpha936) by logarithmic extrapolation from Tau(sub alpha675) and Tau(sub alpha 870. From the operational standpoint of the Microtops, apart from errors that may result from unperceived cloud contamination, the main sources of error include inaccurate pointing to the Sun, neglecting to clean the front quartz window, and neglecting to calibrate correctly. If these three issues are adequately taken care of, the Microtops can be quite accurate and stable, with root mean square (rms) differences between corresponding retrievals from clean calibrated Microtops and the AERONET sun photometer being about +/-0.02 at 340 nm, decreasing down to about +/-0.01 at 870 nm.

Description: Tropical Pacific Ocean is an important region that affects global climate. How the ocean responds to the atmospheric surface forcing (surface radiative, heat and momentum fluxes) is a major topic in oceanographic research community. The ocean becomes warm when more heat flux puts into the ocean. The monthly mean forcing has been used in the past years since daily forcing was unavailable due to the lack of observations. The daily forcing is now available from the satellite measurements. This study investigates the response of the upper ocean over tropical Pacific to the daily atmospheric surface forcing. The ocean surface heat budgets are calculated to determine the important processes for the oceanic response. The differences of oceanic responses between the eastern and western Pacific are intensively discussed.

Description: In the tropical western Pacific, regions of the highest sea surface temperature (SST) and the largest cloud cover are found to have the largest surface heating, primarily due to the weak evaporative cooling associated with weak winds. This situation is in variance with the suggestions that the temperature in the Pacific warm pool is regulated either by the reduced solar heating due to an enhanced cloudiness or by the enhanced evaporative cooling due to an elevated SST. It is clear that an enhanced surface heating in an enhanced convection region is not sustainable and must be interrupted by variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation. As the deep convective regions shift away from regions of high SST due primarily to seasonal variation and secondarily to interannual variation of the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation, both trade wind and evaporative cooling in the high SST region increase, leading to a reduction in SST. We conclude that the evaporative cooling associated with the seasonal and interannual variations of trade winds in the primary factor that prevent the warm pool SST from increasing to a value much higher than what is observed.

Description: The analysis of data from the MODIS instrument on the Terra platform to derive global distribution of aerosols assumes a set of relationships between the blue, rho (sub blue), the red, rho (sub red), and 2.1 micrometers, rho (sub 2.1), spectral channels. These relations have been established from a series of measurements indicating that rho (sub blue) approximately 0.5 rho (sub red) approximately 0.25 rho (sub 2.1). Here we use a model to describe the transfer of radiation through a vegetation canopy composed of randomly oriented leaves to assess the theoretical foundations for these relationships. The influence of varying fractional vegetation coverage is simulated simply as a linear combination of pure soil and pure vegetation conditions, also known as Independent Pixel Approximation (IPA). Calculations for a wide range of leaf area indices and vegetation fractions show that rho (sub blue) is consistently about 1/4 of rho (sub 2.1) as used by MODIS for the whole range of analyzed cases, except for very dark soils, such as those found in burn scars. For its part, the ratio rho (sub red)/rho (sub 2.1) varies from less than the empirically derived value of 1/2 for dense and dark vegetation (rho (sub 2.1) less than 0.1), to more than 1/2 for bright mixture of soil and vegetation. This is in agreement with measurements over uniform dense vegetation, but not with measurements over mixed dark scenes. In the later case, the discrepancy is probably mitigated by shadows due to uneven canopy and terrain on a large scale. It is concluded that the value of this ratio should ideally be made dependent on the land cover type in the operational processing of MODIS data, especially over dense forests.

Description: The MODIS sensor, launched on NASA's Terra satellite at the end of 1999, was designed with 36 spectral channels for a wide array of land, ocean, and atmospheric investigations. MODIS has a unique ability to observe fires, smoke, and burn scars globally. Its main fire detection channels saturate at high brightness temperatures: 500 K at 4 microns and 400 K at 11 microns, which can only be attained in rare circumstances at the I kin fire detection spatial resolution. Thus, unlike other polar orbiting satellite sensors with similar thermal and spatial resolutions, but much lower saturation temperatures (e.g. AVHRR and ATSR), MODIS can distinguish between low intensity ground surface fires and high intensity crown forest fires. Smoke column concentration over land is for the first time being derived from the MOMS solar channels, extending from 0.41 microns to 2.1 microns. The smoke product has been provisionally validated both globally and regionally over southern Africa and central and south America. Burn scars are observed from MODIS even in the presence of smoke, using the 1.2 to 2.1 micron channels. MODIS burned area information is used to estimate pyrogenic emissions. A wide range of these fire and related products and validation are demonstrated for the wild fires that occurred in northwestern United States in the summer of 2000. The MODIS rapid response system and direct broadcast capability is being developed to enable users to obtain and generate data in near real time. It is expected that health and land management organizations will use these systems for monitoring the occurrence of fires and the dispersion of smoke within two to six hours after data acquisition.