ALBERT

Description: Rapid anthropogenic climate change is a major threat to ocean biodiversity, increasing the challenge for marine conservation. Strategic conservation planning, and more recently marine spatial planning (MSP) are among the most promising management tools to operationalize and enforce marine conservation. As yet, climate change is seldom incorporated into these plans, potentially curtailing the effectiveness of designated conservation areas under novel environmental conditions. Reliable assessment of current and future climate change threats requires the ability to map climate-driven eco-evolutionary changes and the identification of vulnerable and resistant populations. Here we explore the heretofore largely unrecognized value of information gained from physiological, ecological and evolutionary studies to MSP under ongoing climate change. For example, we explore how climate threats do not necessarily follow latitudinal gradients, such that both risk hotspots and refugia occur in mosaic distributions along species ranges - patterns that may be undetectable without knowledge of biological vulnerabilities at regional and local scales. Because co-occurring species can exhibit markedly different vulnerabilities to the same environmental changes, making ecological predictions requires, when possible, measuring the fundamental niches of key species (e.g., with the use of thermotolerance experiments). Forecasting also requires development of tools to identify the likelihood of community-level thresholds or tipping points (e.g., with the use of near-real world mesocosms), and assessment of the potential of populations for adaptation (e.g., with common garden experiments). Such research will facilitate better predictive models for the fate of populations, species, ecosystems and their functions. Ultimately, unfolding the complexity of the processes underlying climate change impacts will facilitate quantifying and reducing uncertainty in spatial planning decision processes and will enable the development of practical tools to validate adaptive conservation strategies.

Description: Given the accelerating rate of biodiversity loss, the need to prioritize marine areas for protection represents a major conservation challenge. The three-dimensionality of marine life and ecosystems is an inherent element of complexity for setting spatial conservation plans. Yet, the confidence of any recommendation largely depends on shifting climate, which triggers a global redistribution of biodiversity, suggesting the inclusion of time as a fourth dimension. Here, we developed a depth-specific prioritization analysis to inform the design of protected areas, further including metrics of climate-driven changes in the ocean. Climate change was captured in this analysis by considering the projected future distribution of 〉2000 benthic and pelagic species inhabiting the Mediterranean Sea, combined with climatic stability and heterogeneity metrics of the seascape. We identified important areas based on both biological and climatic criteria, where conservation focus should be given in priority when designing a three-dimensional, climate-smart protected area network. We detected spatially concise, conservation priority areas, distributed around the basin, that protected marine areas almost equally across all depth zones. Our approach highlights the importance of deep sea zones as priority areas to meet conservation targets for future marine biodiversity, while suggesting that spatial prioritization schemes, that focus on a static two-dimensional distribution of biodiversity data, might fail to englobe both the vertical properties of species distributions and the fine and larger-scale impacts associated with climate change.