ALBERT

Description: Klärung der Studienlage zum potentiellen Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Prävalenz von Haut- und Allergieerkrankungen in Deutschland KATASTER-BESCHREIBUNG: klimabedingte Veränderungen vor allem bei allergischen Erkrankungen, Hautkrebs und einzelnen erregerbedingten Dermatosen KATASTER-DETAIL:

Description: UV-Strahlungsbeeinflussende Faktoren Azimutwinkel, Bewölkung, Aerosole, stratosphärisches Ozon, biologische Wirkung in Abhängigkeit vom Hauttyp und Sensibilisierung (Jahreszeit) KATASTER-BESCHREIBUNG: Einfluss klimatischer Veränderungen auf die Häufigkeit von Hautkrebserkrankungen sehr wahrscheinlich, bei vermutlich hoher Bedeutung des (thermisch motivierten) Expositionsverhaltens KATASTER-DETAIL:

Description: Lower Saxony, with a total land area of about 46 500 km2, constitutes one of the most important agricultural areas in Germany and thus within Europe. Roughly one third of its agricultural area is used for maize cultivation and as of today only few information exist on how a future changing climate will affect its local growing conditions. Thus the newly developed carbon-based crop model BioSTAR and a high-resolution regional climate data-set (Wettreg) were used to evaluate the change in biomass yields of an early, medium and late maize variety. The climate input data is based on the SRES A1B scenario, with a potential fertilization effect or better still, an increased water use efficiency due to rising CO2 levels, taken into account. The biomass yield for all varieties was calculated for each year from 2001 until 2099 on a total of 91 014 sites. The results suggest clearly differentiated development paths of all varieties. All three show a significant positive trend until the end of the century. However the medium variety shows a statistical significant decline of 5% during the first 30 years and only a slight recovery towards +5% around the century's end. The late variety has the clearest and strongest positive trend, with partially more than 30% increase of biomass yields around the end of the century or +25% mean increase in the last three decades. The early variety can be seen as in-between, with no negative but also not an as strong positive development path. All varieties have their strongest increase in yields after the mid of the 21st century. Statistical evaluation of these results suggests that the shift from a summer rain to a winter rain climate in Germany will be the main limiting factor for all varieties. In addition summer temperatures will become less optimal for all maize crops. Only if the plants can supply themselves sufficiently with water outside of the increasingly dry summer months, when also temperatures are much more favorable, an increase in biomass yields is feasible. As the data suggests the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will play a critical role in reducing the crops water uptake, thus enabling yield increases in the first place.

Description: Open-Access-Publikationsfonds 2014

Description: Open-Access-Publikationsfonds 2011

Description: Purpose – This paper aims to demonstrate the importance of taking into account precipitation and the vegetation response to it when trying to analyse changes of vegetation cover in drylands with high inter-annual rainfall variability. Design/methodology/approach – Linear regression models were used to determine trends in NDVI and precipitation and their interrelations for each pixel. Trends in NDVI that were entirely supported by precipitation trends were considered to impose climate-induced vegetation change. Trends in NDVI that were not explained by trends in precipitation were considered to mark human-induced vegetation change. Modelling results were validated by test of statistical significance and by comparison with the data from higher resolution satellites and fieldtrips to key test sites. Findings – More than 26 percent of all vegetated area in Central Asia experienced significant changes during 1981-2000. Rainfall has been proved to enforce most of these changes (21 percent of the entire vegetated area). The trends in vegetation activity driven by anthropogenic factor are much scarcer and occupy about 5.75 percent of the studied area. Practical implications – Planners, decision makers and other interest groups can use the findings of the study for assessment and monitoring land performance/land degradation over dry regions. Originality/value – The study demonstrates the importance of taking into account precipitation and the vegetation response to it when trying to analyse changes of vegetation cover in drylands with high inter-annual rainfall variability.