ALBERT

Description: The role of transient eddies in maintaining the observed local seasonal mean atmospheric circulation was investigated by examining the time-averaged momentum balances and omega equation, using seasonal statistics calculated from daily operational analyses by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts. While both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and several seasons were studied, emphasis was placed upon the Northern Hemisphere during December 1981-February 1982. The results showed that transient eddies played a secondary role in the seasonal mean zonal momentum budget and in the forcing of seasonal mean vertical and a geostrophic motion.

Description: In investigations concerned with obtaining an understanding of the general circulation of the atmosphere, the determination of the role of the large-scale eddies presents a special problem. In the present study,attention is given to a theory which, in some ways, provides an extension of the Eliassen-Palm flux concept so that it can be applied in particular to the time-averaged three space dimension problem. Particular emphasis is given to the understanding of the feedback of the eddies onto the mean flow. However, the behavior of the eddies themselves is also discussed. It is shown that, in simple situations, the anisotropic eddy horizontal velocity correlation tensor implies the shape and propagation of eddies and the feedback of the eddies onto the mean flow.

Description: The steady response to orography as described by shallow-water equations on the sphere is examined in an attempt to provide insight into the dynamical effects of large-scale orographic features on atmospheric motion. The model equations and the zonal flows and orography used in the study are described. The results for simple mountains and for the earth orography are given. The two-dimensional nature of the horizontal propagation on the sphere is emphasized. The results give interesting indications of the regions of influence of mountains and suggest that quantitative theories of the stationary waves must involve a full representation of the spherical domain.

Description: When studying data for one season, it is convenient to divide transient eddies into those of the synoptic time scale and those of lower frequency. Where the dividing line is placed is not crucial, but a 10-day period is used in a study of the 1979-1980 Northern Hemisphere winter. The synoptic time scale eddies exhibit maximum kinetic energy in stormtracks slightly downstream from and poleward of the Atlantic and Pacific jet maximum. An alternative approach is via the anisotropic part of the horizontal velocity correlation tensor, the axis of which gives the local orientation of the eddies and the magnitude a measure of the extension of the eddies. When the man velocity field is almost that of the plane waves, the horizontal group velocity relative to the mean field is also related to this tensor. The synoptic time scale eddies force the mean flow in the sense of reducing the baroclinic component in the upstream of the region of the stormtrack. The lower frequency eddies have a very different signature.

Description: Exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere is important to the chemical composition of both regions. The export of ozone from the stratosphere provides the troposphere with a means of initiating photochemistry. The precursor molecules originating from the planetary surface provide the stratosphere with its chemical feedstock from which the ozone-controlling HO(x), NO(x), and Cl(x) photochemistries are driven. The tropopause is defined both statistically and in a local, synoptic sense by the value P(sub theta) = .000016 K sq m/kg/s, taken from an objective analysis of 8 years of zonal, temporal mean cross sections of potential temperature, wind and potential vorticity.

Description: The scale of the decarbonisation challenge to meet the Paris Agreement is underplayed in the public arena. It will require precipitous emissions reductions within 40 years and a new carbon sink on the scale of the ocean sink. Even then, the world is extremely likely to overshoot. A catastrophic failure of policy, for example, waiting another decade for transformative policy and full commitments to fossil‐free economies, will have irreversible and deleterious repercussions for humanity's remaining time on Earth. Only a global zero carbon roadmap will put the world on a course to phase‐out greenhouse gas emissions and create the essential carbon sinks for Earth‐system stability, without which, world prosperity is not possible.

Description: Climatic observables are often correlated across long spatial distances, and extreme events, such as heatwaves or floods, are typically assumed to be related to such teleconnections1,2. Revealing atmospheric teleconnection patterns and understanding their underlying mechanisms is of great importance for weather forecasting in general and extreme-event prediction in particular3,4, especially considering that the characteristics of extreme events have been suggested to change under ongoing anthropogenic climate change5,6,7,8. Here we reveal the global coupling pattern of extreme-rainfall events by applying complex-network methodology to high-resolution satellite data and introducing a technique that corrects for multiple-comparison bias in functional networks. We find that the distance distribution of significant connections (P 〈 0.005) around the globe decays according to a power law up to distances of about 2,500 kilometres. For longer distances, the probability of significant connections is much higher than expected from the scaling of the power law. We attribute the shorter, power-law-distributed connections to regional weather systems. The longer, super-power-law-distributed connections form a global rainfall teleconnection pattern that is probably controlled by upper-level Rossby waves. We show that extreme-rainfall events in the monsoon systems of south-central Asia, east Asia and Africa are significantly synchronized. Moreover, we uncover concise links between south-central Asia and the European and North American extratropics, as well as the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. Analysis of the atmospheric conditions that lead to these teleconnections confirms Rossby waves as the physical mechanism underlying these global teleconnection patterns and emphasizes their crucial role in dynamical tropical–extratropical couplings. Our results provide insights into the function of Rossby waves in creating stable, global-scale dependencies of extreme-rainfall events, and into the potential predictability of associated natural hazards.