ALBERT

Description: We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than "business-as-usual" scenarios.

Description: The dynamic behavior of aircraft fuselage structures subject to various impact conditions was investigated. An analytical model was developed based on a self-consistent finite element (CFE) formulation utilizing shell, curved beam, and stringer type elements. Equations of motion were formulated and linearized (i.e., for small displacements), although material nonlinearity was retained to treat local plastic deformation. The equations were solved using the implicit Newmark-Beta method with a frontal solver routine. Stiffened aluminum fuselage models were also tested in free flight using the UTIAS pendulum crash test facility. Data were obtained on dynamic strains, g-loads, and transient deformations (using high speed photography in the latter case) during the impact process. Correlations between tests and predicted results are presented, together with computer graphics, based on the CFE model. These results include level and oblique angle impacts as well as the free-flight crash test. Comparisons with a hybrid, lumped mass finite element computer model demonstrate that the CFE formulation provides the test overall agreement with impact test data for comparable computing costs.

Description: The Mt. Agung volcanic eruption in 1963 is used as a test case to examine the climatic response to a global-scale radiative perturbation of the earth's atmosphere.

Description: Preliminary steps were taken to develop a climate model adequate for seasonal and interannual simulations. Tests of the model against the observed seasonal cycle of key climate properties indicate an encouraging capability for climate applications.

Description: The objective of this experiment is to determine the effect of various lengths of exposure to a space environment on the mechanical properties of selected commercial polymer matrix composite materials. Fiber materials will include graphite, boron, S-glass, and PRD-49. The mechanical properties to be investigated are orthotropic elastic constants, strength parameters (satisfying the tensor polynomial relation), coefficients of thermal expansion, impact resistance, crack propagation, and fracture toughness. In addition, the effect of laminate thickness on property changes will also be investigated.

Description: Different methods for measuring the rates of processes mediated by bacteria in sediments and the rates of bacterial cell production have been compared. In addition, net production of the seagrass Zostera capricorni and bacterial production have been compared and some interrelationships with the nitrogen cycle discussed. Seagrass productivity was estimated by measuring the plastochrone interval using a leaf stapling technique. The average productivity over four seasons was 1.28 +/- 0.28 g C m-2 day-1 (mean +/- standard deviation, n = 4). Bacterial productivity was measured five times throughout a year using the rate of tritiated thymidine incorporated into DNA. Average values were 33 +/- 12 mg C m-2 day-1 for sediment and 23 +/- 4 for water column (n = 5). Spatial variability between samples was greater than seasonal variation for both seagrass productivity and bacterial productivity. On one occasion, bacterial productivity was measured using the rate of 32P incorporated into phospholipid. The values were comparable to those obtained with tritiated thymidine. The rate of sulfate reduction was 10 mmol SO4(-2) m-2 day-1. The rate of methanogenesis was low, being 5.6 mg CH4 produced m-2 day-1. A comparison of C flux measured using rates of sulfate reduction and DNA synthesis indicated that anaerobic processes were predominant in these sediments. An analysis of microbial biomass and community structure, using techniques of phospholipid analysis, showed that bacteria were predominant members of the microbial biomass and that of these, strictly anaerobic bacteria were the main components. Ammonia concentration in interstitial water varied from 23 to 71 micromoles. Estimates of the amount of ammonia required by seagrass showed that the ammonia would turn over about once per day. Rapid recycling of nitrogen by bacteria and bacterial grazers is probably important.

Description: The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.

Description: The possibility that the greenhouse warming predicted by the GISS general-circulation model and other GCMs could lead to severe droughts is investigated by means of numerical simulations, with a focus on the role of potential evapotranspiration E(P). The relationships between precipitation (P), E(P), soil moisture, and vegetation changes in GCMs are discussed; the empirically derived Palmer drought-intensity index and a new supply-demand index (SDDI) based on changes in P - E(P) are described; and simulation results for the period 1960-2060 are presented in extensive tables, graphs, and computer-generated color maps. Simulations with both drought indices predict increasing drought frequency for the U.S., with effects already apparent in the 1990s and a 50-percent frequency of severe droughts by the 2050s. Analyses of arid periods during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic are shown to support the use of the SDDI in GCM drought prediction.

Description: The atmospheric science goals of the Galileo mission, and instruments of the probe and orbiter are described. The current data available, and the goals of the Galileo mission concerning the chemical composition of the Jovian atmosphere; the thermal structure of the atmosphere; the nature of cloud particles and cloud layering; the radiative energy balance; atmospheric dynamics; and the upper atmosphere are discussed. The objectives and operations of the atmospheric structure instrument, neutral mass spectrometer, helium abundance interferometer, nephelometer, net flux radiometer, lightning and radio emission detector, solid state imaging system, NIR mapping spectrometer, photopolarimeter radiometer, and UV spectrometer are examined.

Description: The polarization of reflected sunlight is computed for model atmospheres of Venus as a function of location on the apparent planetary disk. The calculations are for both homogeneous and layered models, as required to investigate the vertical distribution of particles. The results are compared with available observations. It is shown that the Rayleigh scattering observed in the polarization of Venus originates primarily from within the visible clouds, rather than from above the clouds. The visible 'clouds' are actually a very diffuse hazy region, and this visible-cloud layer extends at least up to the level where the pressure is of the order of 10 mb. The results indicate that the atmosphere behaves more nearly as the so-called 'homogeneous model' than as the 'reflecting-layer model'. However, there is some indication in the data that the turbidity increases with depth into the atmosphere. This conclusion receives stronger support from a comparison of particle number densities obtained from the polarization data with the number densities obtained from other observations which refer on the average to higher and lower levels in the atmosphere.