ALBERT

Description: The ocean is a substantial source of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere, but little is known about how this flux might change in the future. Here, we investigate the potential evolution of marine N2O emissions in the 21st century in response to anthropogenic climate change using the global ocean biogeochemical model NEMO-PISCES. Assuming nitrification as the dominant N2O formation pathway, we implemented two different parameterizations of N2O production which differ primarily under low-oxygen (O2) conditions. When forced with output from a climate model simulation run under the business-as-usual high-CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), our simulations suggest a decrease of 4 to 12 % in N2O emissions from 2005 to 2100, i.e., a reduction from 4.03/3.71 to 3.54/3.56 TgN yr−1 depending on the parameterization. The emissions decrease strongly in the western basins of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, while they tend to increase above the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), i.e., in the eastern tropical Pacific and in the northern Indian Ocean. The reduction in N2O emissions is caused on the one hand by weakened nitrification as a consequence of reduced primary and export production, and on the other hand by stronger vertical stratification, which reduces the transport of N2O from the ocean interior to the ocean surface. The higher emissions over the OMZ are linked to an expansion of these zones under global warming, which leads to increased N2O production, associated primarily with denitrification. While there are many uncertainties in the relative contribution and changes in the N2O production pathways, the increasing storage seems unequivocal and determines largely the decrease in N2O emissions in the future. From the perspective of a global climate system, the averaged feedback strength associated with the projected decrease in oceanic N2O emissions amounts to around −0.009 W m−2 K−1, which is comparable to the potential increase from terrestrial N2O sources. However, the assessment for a potential balance between the terrestrial and marine feedbacks calls for an improved representation of N2O production terms in fully coupled next-generation Earth system models.

Description: The marine aragonite cycle has been included in the global biogeochemical model PISCES to study the role of aragonite in shallow water CaCO3 dissolution. Aragonite production is parameterized as a function of mesozooplankton biomass and aragonite saturation state of ambient waters. Observation-based estimates of marine carbonate production and dissolution are well reproduced by the model and about 60% of the combined CaCO3 water column dissolution from aragonite and calcite is simulated above 2000 m. In contrast, a calcite-only version yields a much smaller fraction. This suggests that the aragonite cycle should be included in models for a realistic representation of CaCO3 dissolution and alkalinity. For the SRES A2 CO2 scenario, production rates of aragonite are projected to notably decrease after 2050. By the end of this century, global aragonite production is reduced by 29% and total CaCO3 production by 19% relative to pre-industrial. Geographically, the effect from increasing atmospheric CO2, and the subsequent reduction in saturation state, is largest in the subpolar and polar areas where the modeled aragonite production is projected to decrease by 65% until 2100.

Description: Fully coupled climate carbon cycle models are sophisticated tools that are used to predict future climate change and its impact on the land and ocean carbon cycles. These models should be able to adequately represent natural variability, requiring model validation by observations. The present study focuses on the ocean carbon cycle component, in particular the spatial and temporal variability in net primary productivity (PP) and export production (EP) of particulate organic carbon (POC). Results from three coupled climate carbon cycle models (IPSL, MPIM, NCAR) are compared with observation-based estimates derived from satellite measurements of ocean colour and results from inverse modelling (data assimilation). Satellite observations of ocean colour have shown that temporal variability of PP on the global scale is largely dominated by the permanently stratified, low-latitude ocean (Behrenfeld et al., 2006) with stronger stratification (higher sea surface temperature; SST) being associated with negative PP anomalies. Results from all three coupled models confirm the role of the low-latitude, permanently stratified ocean for anomalies in globally integrated PP, but only one model (IPSL) also reproduces the inverse relationship between stratification (SST) and PP. An adequate representation of iron and macronutrient co-limitation of phytoplankton growth in the tropical ocean has shown to be the crucial mechanism determining the capability of the models to reproduce observed interactions between climate and PP.

Description: Decadal-to-century scale trends for a range of marine environmental variables in the upper mesopelagic layer (UML, 100–600 m) are investigated using results from seven Earth System Models forced by a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. The models as a class represent the observation-based distribution of oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), albeit major mismatches between observation-based and simulated values remain for individual models. By year 2100 all models project an increase in SST between 2 °C and 3 °C, and a decrease in the pH and in the saturation state of water with respect to calcium carbonate minerals in the UML. A decrease in the total ocean inventory of dissolved oxygen by 2% to 4% is projected by the range of models. Projected O2 changes in the UML show a complex pattern with both increasing and decreasing trends reflecting the subtle balance of different competing factors such as circulation, production, remineralization, and temperature changes. Projected changes in the total volume of hypoxic and suboxic waters remain relatively small in all models. A widespread increase of CO2 in the UML is projected. The median of the CO2 distribution between 100 and 600m shifts from 0.1–0.2 mol m−3 in year 1990 to 0.2–0.4 mol m−3 in year 2100, primarily as a result of the invasion of anthropogenic carbon from the atmosphere. The co-occurrence of changes in a range of environmental variables indicates the need to further investigate their synergistic impacts on marine ecosystems and Earth System feedbacks.

Description: The Southern Ocean is a major sink of atmospheric CO2, but the nature and magnitude of its variability remains uncertain and debated. Estimates based on observations suggest substantial variability that is not reproduced by process-based ocean models, with increasingly divergent estimates over the past decade. We examine potential constraints on the nature and magnitude of climate-driven variability of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink from observation-based air-sea O-2 fluxes. On interannual time scales, the variability in the air-sea fluxes of CO2 and O-2 estimated from observations is consistent across the two species and positively correlated with the variability simulated by ocean models. Our analysis suggests that variations in ocean ventilation related to the Southern Annular Mode are responsible for this interannual variability. On decadal time scales, the existence of significant variability in the air-sea CO2 flux estimated from observations also tends to be supported by observation-based estimates of O-2 flux variability. However, the large decadal variability in air-sea CO2 flux is absent from ocean models. Our analysis suggests that issues in representing the balance between the thermal and non-thermal components of the CO2 sink and/or insufficient variability in mode water formation might contribute to the lack of decadal variability in the current generation of ocean models.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

Description: The coastal ocean contributes to regulating atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations by taking up carbon dioxide (CO2) and releasing nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). In this second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP2), we quantify global coastal ocean fluxes of CO2, N2O and CH4 using an ensemble of global gap-filled observation-based products and ocean biogeochemical models. The global coastal ocean is a net sink of CO2 in both observational products and models, but the magnitude of the median net global coastal uptake is similar to 60% larger in models (-0.72 vs. -0.44 PgC year-1, 1998-2018, coastal ocean extending to 300 km offshore or 1,000 m isobath with area of 77 million km2). We attribute most of this model-product difference to the seasonality in sea surface CO2 partial pressure at mid- and high-latitudes, where models simulate stronger winter CO2 uptake. The coastal ocean CO2 sink has increased in the past decades but the available time-resolving observation-based products and models show large discrepancies in the magnitude of this increase. The global coastal ocean is a major source of N2O (+0.70 PgCO2-e year-1 in observational product and +0.54 PgCO2-e year-1 in model median) and CH4 (+0.21 PgCO2-e year-1 in observational product), which offsets a substantial proportion of the coastal CO2 uptake in the net radiative balance (30%-60% in CO2-equivalents), highlighting the importance of considering the three greenhouse gases when examining the influence of the coastal ocean on climate. The coastal ocean regulates greenhouse gases. It acts as a sink of carbon dioxide (CO2) but also releases nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) into the atmosphere. This synthesis contributes to the second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP2) and provides a comprehensive view of the coastal air-sea fluxes of these three greenhouse gases at the global scale. We use a multi-faceted approach combining gap-filled observation-based products and ocean biogeochemical models. We show that the global coastal ocean is a net sink of CO2 in both observational products and models, but the coastal uptake of CO2 is similar to 60% larger in models than in observation-based products due to model-product differences in seasonality. The coastal CO2 sink is strengthening but the magnitude of this strengthening is poorly constrained. We also find that the coastal emissions of N2O and CH4 counteract a substantial part of the effect of coastal CO2 uptake in the atmospheric radiative balance (by 30%-60% in CO2-equivalents), highlighting the need to consider these three gases together to understand the influence of the coastal ocean on climate. We synthesize air-sea fluxes of CO2, nitrous oxide and methane in the global coastal ocean using observation-based products and ocean models The coastal ocean CO2 sink is 60% larger in ocean models than in observation-based products due to systematic differences in seasonality Coastal nitrous oxide and methane emissions offset 30%-60% of the CO2 coastal uptake in the net radiative balance